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000
FXUS66 KSGX 162019
AFDSGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service San Diego CA
119 PM PDT Tue Apr 16 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Warm and dry weather will continue through the weekend. Areas of
night and morning low clouds will make an appearance over the
next few days, where foggy conditions may occur near the coast
later tonight into Wednesday morning. A weak shortwave will pass
through the area through the middle of the week, cooling
temperatures slightly and bringing windy conditions across the
mountains and deserts at times. Another ridge of high pressure
will move in to the region from the west, bringing further warming
and calmer winds.

&&

.DISCUSSION...FOR EXTREME SOUTHWESTERN CALIFORNIA INCLUDING ORANGE...
SAN DIEGO...WESTERN RIVERSIDE AND SOUTHWESTERN SAN BERNARDINO
COUNTIES...

.SHORT TERM (Today through Friday)...
Gorgeous day out there with temperatures warming near to slightly
above average for this time of year. GOES imagery shows crystal
clear skies across the region. This will change later tonight as
the shallow marine layer will cool and allow for areas of low
clouds to form. Per latest HREF guidance, there is a low to
moderate chance in seeing low clouds and fog impacting the
coastal areas. Low clouds were near the beaches this morning and
a coastal eddy may spin up tonight, enhancing cloud development,
so patchy fog has been added to the forecast.

The ridge over us will peak in strength tomorrow, warming
temperatures slightly. The lower deserts will see the greatest
warming with highs being another 4-7 degrees warmer than today.
A weak shortwave will pass through area later on Wednesday through
Friday, providing greater cloud coverage and cooling. This will
also increase winds by Wednesday afternoon and night across the
mountains and deserts, where gusts near 35-50 MPH will impact
mountain passes into the deserts. Be mindful if traveling high-
profile vehicles in gusty winds and desert dust. Winds will
continue in these areas, slightly weaker by Thursday and Friday.
High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will also cool slightly
across SoCal, becoming a few degrees below average for areas west
of the mountains. The marine layer will also deepen, meaning more
clouds and patchy fog pushing into coastal and valley regions west
of the mountains each night and morning.

&&

.LONG TERM (Saturday through Early Next Week)...
Long range model guidance depicts another weak ridge to form over
the western Pacific and move over Southern California by this
week providing a resurgence of warmer temperatures and sunny
weather. Highs on Sunday and Monday have a low to moderate chance
of reaching 100 degrees across the lower deserts. Palm Springs has
a 30-50% chance of reaching this value. This would make it the
first triple digit day of the season, the last of which occurred
on October 21st of last year. Most models show this to be a
shorter ridging event lasting until around Monday, with slow
cooling thereafter.

&&

.AVIATION...
162030Z...Coast...Patchy low cloud coverage is expected to redevelop
tonight after 06Z. There is a 20% chance of CIG impacts to the
coastal TAF sites between 06-10z tonight. Chances increase to 40%
between 10-12z, and to around 60% after 12z. Confidence in the
duration of any CIGs is rather low. Bases at this time look to be
between 1000-1500 FT MSL, briefly down to 700-1000 FT MSL VCTY CRQ.

Otherwise...Mostly clear skies with unrestricted vis will prevail
today and tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
No hazardous marine conditions are expected through Saturday.

&&

.BEACHES...
A long-period swell from the southern hemisphere will build surf up
to 6 feet tomorrow night into early Thursday, especially on south-
facing beaches in Orange County. This would generate a high rip
current risk.

&&

.SKYWARN...
Skywarn activation is not requested. However weather spotters are
encouraged to report significant weather conditions.

&&

.SGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
CA...None.
PZ...None.

&&

$$

PUBLIC...APR
AVIATION/MARINE...Adams