784
FXUS64 KSHV 301525 AAA
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
1025 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1019 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

Low clouds persist across Southeast Oklahoma and into portions of
Northeast Texas and Northwest Louisiana. However, surface obs
indicate that visibilities have improved greatly. Thus, the Dense
Fog Advisory was allowed to expire. Temperatures are already
warming quickly where the clouds have cleared. Hourly temp grids
were tweaked slightly, mainly to keep temperatures are few degrees
cooler where the clouds persist. However, these locations should
rapidly warm this afternoon as the clouds continue to lift and
scatter. No changes were made to the high temperature forecast for
today.

Updated text products have been sent.

CN

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Tuesday through Wednesday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

The morning satellite imagery indicates areas of dense FG
developing in VC of a weak stationary front extending from SE OK
across much of SW AR into the far Nrn parishes of N LA. Areas of
dense FG have also developed farther S across Deep E TX and
adjacent SE TX into NCntrl LA, with the FG beginning to advect N
across these areas. Traffic cams reflect these satellite
observations, with the FG expected to become more widespread over
these areas through and shortly after daybreak. Thus, have
hoisted a Dense FG Adv for McCurtain County OK into much of SW
AR/N LA and Deep E TX through 15Z before the FG lifts/begins to
scatter out. Will continue to monitor observations this morning
for the need of expanding the Adv into more areas of E
TX/remainder of extreme NW LA/SW AR.

A weak Srly low level flow will resume today in wake of the
convective overchurning as a result of the early morning MCS
Monday, with stronger insolation yielding a return of above normal
temps areawide, as readings top out in the mid to upper 80s. The
remnant stationary front over the Nrn zones will eventually wash
out later this morning, with quiet conditions weatherwise continuing
as well beneath the zonal flow aloft. Low level moisture will eventually
begin to deepen by and after daybreak Wednesday, with the short
term progs trying to key in on a weak perturbation aloft that
will traverse the area once the moisture profile begins to deepen.
Widely scattered convection will be possible especially during
the afternoon once diurnal heating is maximized, with low to mid
chance pops returning to E TX/much of N LA. Above normal temps
will continue though, with reading comparable to what is expected
later today.

Thank you WFO`s LZK/LCH/HGX for coordination on the Dense FG Adv this
morning.

15

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday Night through Tuesday)
Issued at 422 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

The flow aloft will become increasingly SW across the Srn
Plains/Lower MS Valley Wednesday afternoon, ahead of the next
upper trough currently over the Pacific NW, that will translate E
through the Rockies Wednesday night/Thursday. A lead shortwave
trough is progged to develop and eject NE across SW and Cntrl TX
Wednesday evening, before entering E TX late. This shortwave is
expected to take on a negative tilt and begin to amplify
overnight, thus enhancing a 30-40kt SSWrly LLJ over Cntrl and Ern
TX. Large scale forcing will increase in earnest Wednesday evening
along/ahead of the trough, with convection deepening along the
dryline before accelerating E across TX overnight. The greatest
instability will remain well off to our W Wednesday evening, with
the resultant convection expected to weaken in intensity as it
surges E. However, the threat for heavy rainfall will increase
overnight through the day Thursday with the trough passage, with
widespread QPF of 1-3 inches, with isolated higher amounts
possible, with the heaviest totals generally in VC of the I-20
corridor of E TX/N LA. The NBM remains a bit too slow vs the
various deterministic guidance which are in good agreement, and
thus have raised/expanded categorical/likely pops over much of
the region Thursday.

While the heavier rains should shift off to the E Thursday night,
a perturbed flow will continue under W flow, especially ahead of a
weak sfc front that will try and shift into NE TX/SE OK/SW AR late
Thursday night/Friday morning. Given its shallow depth and
continued SW flow aloft, this bndry should hang up in VC of the
higher terrain of the Ouachitas, but still could focus periods of
scattered to numerous convection over the region Thursday night,
aided by forcing aloft in the disturbed flow. What`s left of this
sfc front may wash out Friday, although periods of unsettled
weather will continue.

Portions of the upcoming weekend may be still be salvaged though
as an perturbations aloft may trend to be weaker, although
isolated to widely scattered convection will still be possible.
Should also see a warming trend commence again for the weekend,
with a return to above normal temps despite the potential for
convection each day. At this time, the ensembles are reducing the
extent of convection by early next week, with the warmest temps so
far this spring season as widespread 90 degree temps are possible
by Tuesday as the deep flow becomes drier and more SW ahead of
upper troughing that will swing ENE through the Rockies into the
Plains, thus amplifying ridging aloft over the region and Lower MS
Valley.

15

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 AM CDT Tue Apr 30 2024

For the 30/12Z TAFs, areas of dense fog have developed across the
ArkLaTex at area terminals, resulting in periods of drops to IFR
and LIFR VIS with VV CIGs. This fog should rapidly burn off after
daybreak, returning quickly to VFR conditions, followed by
development of a Cu field during the afternoon hours. Winds will
be light and variable to near calm overnight, becoming easterly
and southerly during the day at speeds of 5 to 10 kts.

/26/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  87  66  87  71 /   0   0  30  40
MLU  86  63  88  67 /   0   0  20  10
DEQ  85  61  86  66 /   0   0  20  40
TXK  87  64  87  68 /   0   0  20  40
ELD  86  61  88  66 /   0   0  20  20
TYR  86  67  85  67 /   0   0  40  70
GGG  86  65  85  67 /   0   0  40  50
LFK  87  67  86  69 /  10   0  50  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...09
LONG TERM....15
AVIATION...26