729
FXUS64 KSHV 300223
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
923 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 918 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Except for the lone supercell thunderstorm that produced up to
golf ball sized hail in McCurtain County earlier this evening, the
forecast is in pretty good shape attm. Did remove evening pop that
was inserted across our far northwest zones to account for this
lone convection. Skies are clearing across our eastern half and
given the clear skies, light winds and wet soils, we are likely
going to see widespread fog overnight. Some of this will be dense
but not confident on just where the most dense fog will be so will
forgo a Dense Fog Advisory attm. Forecast min temps are in the
ballpark and forecast update is out as well.

13

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(This evening through Tuesday Night)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Weak upper-level ridging to prevail through the short-term period
allowing for dry conditions areawide. Light and variable winds
overnight to remain light and out of the southeast around 5 mph on
Tuesday due to a relaxed pressure gradient across the region.
High temperatures are forecast to climb into the 80s on Tuesday,
falling into the low to mid 60s on Tuesday night.

With light southerly flow, a weak surface boundary lingering a
across the region, and a moist airmass in place from recent
rainfall, fog may be an issue tonight. For this forecast package,
went ahead and made mention of widespread fog areawide tonight.
/05/

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 104 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

Southerly flow to increase on Wednesday as the pressure gradient
tightens across the region. Additionally, with near zonal flow
aloft, moisture to increase allowing for mostly cloudy skies
areawide. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible
during the afternoon along a lingering frontal boundary that is
forecast to lift north with high temperatures in the warm sector
behind the front to climb into the mid 80s.

A surface low across the Central Plains will lift northeast on
Thursday leaving a frontal boundary in its wake that will push
south across the ArkLaTex on Thursday night bringing another round
of widespread convection across the region.

Impulses moving downstream within a southwest upper-flow pattern
interacting with a remnant frontal boundary across the ArkLaTex
will maintain a chance for scattered convection through the
remainder of the work week into the weekend. Storms producing
locally heavy rainfall will be possible each day. /05/

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 PM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024

VFR prevailing across area terminals this evening as skies begin
to clear out. Terminal winds will decouple this evening, with many
turning calm overnight. Given the abundance of moisture still
present locally, clearing skies, and calmer winds, T/Td relations
will be close, thus supporting IFR/LIFR VSBY with terminal vis
forecast to fall below 1SM. Terminal conditions should recover
locally through the morning as VSBY and morning BR/FG burns off.
Expecting a CU field to evolve by the mid to late afternoon, with
mainly SCT/BKN sub FL100.

RK

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  64  87  66  88 /  10  10  10  40
MLU  64  84  62  87 /  10   0   0  30
DEQ  58  85  61  85 /  10   0   0  30
TXK  62  86  64  87 /  10   0   0  30
ELD  60  85  61  88 /  10   0   0  30
TYR  62  86  66  85 /  10  10   0  40
GGG  62  87  66  86 /  10  10   0  40
LFK  63  87  67  85 /  10  20  10  50

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...05
LONG TERM....05
AVIATION...53