Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
Issued by NWS San Angelo, TX
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448 FXUS64 KSJT 290815 AFDSJT Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service San Angelo TX 315 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM... .SHORT TERM... (Today and tonight) Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 A benign short-term forecast is on tap for the area as zonal flow in the upper levels moves overhead. Some scattered low clouds and patchy fog will be possible early this morning mainly across the Heartland and NW Hill Country with low level moisture return slowly working its way back into the area. However, this moisture is very shallow and should mix out by mid morning, leaving mostly sunny skies across the area for much of the day with light winds generally out of the southwest. High temperatures will climb above average into the mid 80s to low 90s. As a surface low takes shape well to our northwest in the Central Rockies, winds will back more to the southeast tonight with a minor tightening of the pressure gradient, leading to slightly increased wind speeds across much of the area. This shift to the southeast will allow for a more robust return of low level moisture into the area. The increase in low level moisture could potentially bring low clouds back for many locations south of the I-20 corridor by daybreak. With the potential for increased cloud cover and moisture, overnight lows will be on the mild side in the low to mid 60s. && .LONG TERM... (Tuesday through Sunday) Issued at 315 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 Zonal to southwesterly flow aloft on Tuesday will become increasingly southwest by Wednesday afternoon, and into next weekend. Under this pattern, upper level shortwaves will pass over the area embedded in the upper level flow. This will allow for periodic afternoon and evening precipitation chances, mainly in the form of isolated to scattered thunderstorms. On Tuesday, weak shortwave energy will move through, so isolated development is expected along a tightening dryline just west of the area. While most of this activity should weaken shortly after sunset, there is a chance that some of these storms could make it as far east as our central counties. There is a Marginal Risk for severe storms for areas generally west of a Brownwood to Sonora line. Large hail, and damaging wind gusts will be the main potential hazards. Wednesday, southwesterly flow increases, and a more organized shortwave is progged to move over the area. With that in mind, PoPs are in the 20 to 40 percent range generally during the afternoon and evening timeframe. Once again, some of these storms may be capable of strengthening to severe levels, with large hail, and damaging wind gusts being the main concerns. The precipitation chances continue into Thursday as additional shortwave energy moves over the area, while a cold front is expected to move into and through the area Thursday night into Friday, providing a potential focus for convection. The forecast is less certain by next weekend as global models diverge in their solutions, but the pattern is expected to remain somewhat active, with the cold front moving back to the north as a warm front interacting with active southwest flow aloft. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 1205 AM CDT Mon Apr 29 2024 VFR conditions currently present across the area with light and variable winds. Scattered low clouds are expected to build west overnight, primarily impacting the KJCT and KBBD terminals. Have included some TEMPO groups to account for some uncertainty in ceiling coverage and potential visibility reductions. Any drops in ceilings/visibilities will lift to VFR by mid morning with VFR conditions expected for the rest of the afternoon. Winds will generally be out of the south/southwest this afternoon at less than 10 kts before backing to the southeast and picking up at some sites late in the period. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Abilene 87 63 90 67 / 0 0 10 10 San Angelo 90 63 92 66 / 0 0 0 10 Junction 91 64 93 68 / 0 0 0 10 Brownwood 85 61 87 67 / 0 0 0 10 Sweetwater 87 64 91 66 / 0 0 20 20 Ozona 88 64 88 68 / 0 0 0 10 Brady 86 62 88 68 / 0 0 0 10 && .SJT WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... None. && $$ SHORT TERM...50 LONG TERM....20 AVIATION...50