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000
FXUS65 KSLC 172111
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
311 PM MDT FRI MAY 17 2013

.SYNOPSIS...A COOL MOIST UPPER TROUGH WILL CONTINUE TO CROSS THE
GREAT BASIN TONIGHT THROUGH EARLY SATURDAY. A COLDER SYSTEM WILL
CROSS THE REGION TOMORROW NIGHT AND SUNDAY. HIGH PRESSURE WILL
RETURN FOR THE FIRST PART OF NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...THE UPPER TROUGH CONTINUES TO PUSH EAST ACROSS THE
GREAT BASIN THIS AFTERNOON. THE ASSOCIATED COLD FRONT THAT WAS
STALLED ACROSS CENTRAL UTAH HAS BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST-NORTHEAST
ORIENTED BUT CONTINUES TO MOVE VERY SLOWLY TO THE EAST. THE
SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST BAND OF PRECIPITATION OVER NORTHWEST UTAH
HAS ALSO ONLY INCHED EASTWARD. HOWEVER...MUCH OF NORTHERN UTAH IS
BEGINNING TO FILL IN WITH SHOWERS. NO THUNDERSTORMS ARE YET
INDICATED ON DOPPLER RADAR....BUT THE POTENTIAL WILL REMAIN
THROUGH THE EVENING. ANOTHER BAND OF SHOWERS ALSO CONTINUES TO
DEVELOP.

SHOWERS ARE NOW MOVING INTO THE WASATCH FRONT FROM THE SOUTH.
THE SOUTHEAST PORTION OF THE STATE REMAINS DRY AND
BREEZY...ALTHOUGH KICX RADAR SUGGESTS PRECIPITATION DEVELOPMENT
ALONG THE SOUTHERN END OF THE FRONT FROM KANAB NORTHWARD. THESE
SHOWERS WILL LIKELY MOVE INTO EASTERN UTAH LATER TONIGHT AS THE
FRONT CONTINUES TO DRIFT EAST. THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO A
POSSIBILITY WITH THIS BAND.

A TRAILING SHORT WAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO BRING A SOMEWHAT
COLDER AIRMASS TO THE STATE LATER SATURDAY NIGHT INTO SUNDAY. THIS
SYSTEM COULD KEEP SHOWERS GOING WELL INTO MONDAY BEFORE IT
TOO...SHIFTS EAST. SNOW LEVELS OVER THE NORTH EXPECTED TO LOWER TO
NEAR 7000 FEET FOR A TIME SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL ALLOW SOME
SNOW TO FALL OVER THE NORTHERN MOUNTAINS...ALTHOUGH SHORT LIVED
AND NOT EXPECTING ANY SIGNIFICANT ACCUMULATIONS. RIDGE WILL THEN
REBOUND FOR TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY.

A DEEP CLOSED LOW OVER THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST WILL MOVE SLOWLY
SOUTHEAST TUESDAY NIGHT AND WEDNESDAY. MODELS AGREE SOMEWHAT THAT
THIS SYSTEM WILL SWING BITS AND PIECES AROUND THE BASE OF THE LOW
ACROSS UTAH. EVEN THOUGH THE MODELS SUGGEST THE CENTER OF THIS
SYSTEM NEVER QUITE MAKES IT TO UTAH...IT DOES PUSH A COLD FRONT
INTO NORTHERN UTAH WEDNESDAY EVENING. STILL TOO EARLY TO JUMP ON
POPS AT THIS TIME...AND WILL HAVE TO WAIT FOR FUTURE MODEL RUNS TO
SEE HOW THIS FEATURE WILL PLAY OUT.

&&

.AVIATION...LOCAL SHOWER COVERAGE WILL BE ON THE RISE TONIGHT
THROUGH TOMORROW MORNING AT THE KSLC TERMINAL.  PRIMARY OPERATIONAL
WEATHER CONCERNS ASSOCIATED WILL BE CIGS FALLING BELOW 6000FT AGL
AND BRIEF BUT ERRATIC GUSTY WINDS WITH PASSING SHOWERS AND OR
PERIODIC LIGHT AND VARIABLE CONDITIONS. THIS SAID...WINDS ARE
EXPECTED TO PREVAIL FROM THE NORTHWEST WITH SPEEDS GREATER THAN 8
KNOTS THROUGH THIS EVENING. ALTHOUGH THUNDERSTORMS REMAIN A SLIGHT
THREAT...ONLY A 20 PERCENT CHANCE EXISTS FOR ANY DIRECT IMPACT TO
THE TERMINAL.

THE HEAVIEST RAIN THREAT EXISTS TOMORROW MORNING...WITH A 40 PERCENT
CHANCE THAT CIGS LOWER TO OR BELOW 3000FT AGL AT TIMES BETWEEN
13-16Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...A SLOW MOVING TROUGH WILL BRING COOLER AND MORE
MOIST CONDITIONS TO NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH TONIGHT THROUGH
SATURDAY WITH ANOTHER DISTURBANCE AFFECTING MAINLY NORTHERN UTAH
SUNDAY. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS WILL ACCOMPANY
THIS COOL AND HIGHER RH PERIOD. A WARMING AND DRYING TREND WILL SET
IN FOR THE MONDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY PERIOD WITH INCREASING SOUTHERLY
WINDS. RAIN AMOUNTS FOR MOST AREAS WILL BE 0.10 TO 0.40 OF AN INCH
BUT COULD LOCALLY REACH 1 INCH.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...NONE.
WY...NONE.

&&

$$

PUBLIC.........YOUNG
FIRE WEATHER...STRUTHWOLF
AVIATION.......MERRILL

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)