000
FXUS65 KSLC 151020
AFDSLC

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SALT LAKE CITY UT
420 AM MDT SAT JUN 15 2013

.SYNOPSIS...MIDLEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE TODAY ACROSS SOUTHERN
AND EASTERN UTAH AND LINGER INTO SUNDAY. OTHERWISE...A MILD
SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL SETTLE ACROSS THE AREA THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A MEAN SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL SETTLE ACROSS
THE EASTERN GREAT BASIN THROUGH THE FIRST HALF OF NEXT WEEK.
ALTHOUGH THE RIDGE AXIS REMAINS EAST OF THE AREA...THE RIDGE WILL
BULGE WESTWARD A BIT TODAY...CAUSING HEIGHTS OVER UTAH TO RISE. THIS
COMBINED WITH AN INCREASE IN WINDS AHEAD OF A VERY WEAK UPSTREAM
DISTURBANCE WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES TODAY.

THE AIRMASS REMAINS QUITE DRY OVER UTAH EARLY THIS MORNING...WITH
PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUES GENERALLY UNDER A THIRD OF AN INCH.
HOWEVER...THESE VALUES ARE DOUBLED JUST ACROSS THE BORDER IN
ARIZONA. THE INCREASING SOUTH FLOW TODAY WILL DRAW SOME OF THIS
MOISTURE INTO SOUTHERN AND EASTERN UTAH. AS A RESULT...EXPECT
CONVECTION TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE SOUTHERN/CENTRAL MOUNTAINS BY EARLY
THIS AFTERNOON AND SPREAD INTO THE BOOK CLIFFS AND UINTAS LATER IN
THE DAY. PRECIPITATION WILL REMAIN ON THE LIGHT SIDE AS IT WILL TAKE
A LOT TO MOISTEN UP THE LOWER LEVELS...BUT GUSTY OUTFLOW WINDS ARE
LIKELY WITH ANY THUNDERSTORMS.

MOISTURE WILL DECREASE TOMORROW...BUT EXPECT ENOUGH OF IT TO LINGER
FOR ISOLATED CONVECTION TO PERSIST ESPECIALLY ACROSS THE EASTERN
PORTIONS OF THE FORECAST AREA. OTHERWISE...A SLOW WARMING TREND WILL
CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK WITH A DRY AIRMASS RETURNING
TO THE AREA.

SOUTH WINDS WILL INCREASE ONCE AGAIN ON TUESDAY AS THE NEXT TROUGH
APPROACHES THE WEST COAST. THIS TROUGH WILL PUSH A COLD FRONT ACROSS
MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL UTAH WEDNESDAY...PROMPTING A RETURN TO
BELOW CLIMO TEMPERATURES ACROSS THE NORTH. THE FRONT LOOKS TO COME
THROUGH RATHER DRY...ALTHOUGH HAVE KEPT SMALL POPS IN THE GRIDS FOR
WEDNESDAY/THURSDAY AS THE DEEPER EC CONTINUES TO PUSH A BIT MORE
MOISTURE INTO THE AREA.

&&

.AVIATION...THE SLC TERMINAL WILL SEE VFR CONDITIONS THROUGHOUT THE
DAY WITH MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES. SOUTHEAST WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO SHIFT
TO THE NORTHWEST BETWEEN 18Z AND 20Z. THERE IS A 30 PERCENT CHANCE
THAT THIS WILL OCCUR AN HOUR OR TWO LATER THAN EXPECTED.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...WARM AND DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW WILL DEVELOP OVER THE
DISTRICT TODAY AS HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS. SOUTHWEST WINDS WILL
INCREASE OVER SOUTHERN UTAH BY THIS AFTERNOON...RESULTING IN SEVERE
FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS. SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL CONTINUE TO REMAIN IN
PLACE THROUGH EARLY NEXT WEEK...THOUGH WINDS WILL DECREASE BEGINNING
TOMORROW SO THE THREAT OF HAZARDOUS FIRE WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL BE
LIMITED.

&&

.SLC WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
UT...RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING FOR UTZ497-498.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING BELOW 9000 FEET FOR UTZ496.

     RED FLAG WARNING FROM 1 PM THIS AFTERNOON TO 10 PM MDT THIS
     EVENING BELOW 6000 FEET FOR UTZ495.

WY...NONE.
&&

$$

PUBLIC...CHENG
AVIATION/FIRE WEATHER...TRAPHAGAN

FOR MORE INFORMATION FROM NOAA/S NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY (ALL LOWER CASE)

FOR FREQUENTLY ASKED QUESTIONS ABOUT THE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
VISIT...
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/SALTLAKECITY/GENERAL/AFD_FAQS.PHP (ALL LOWER CASE)