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000
FXUS01 KWBC 152002
PMDSPD

Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
400 PM EDT Mon Apr 15 2024

Valid 00Z Tue Apr 16 2024 - 00Z Thu Apr 18 2024

...Intensifying storm system to bring the threat of severe weather
and isolated flash flooding to the Plains tonight, followed by the
Mississippi Valley on Tuesday...

...Scattered to severe thunderstorms, over parts of the
Mid-Atlantic early this evening...

...Moderate to locally heavy snowfall expected over the next
couple of days for higher elevations of the northern Cascades,
Northern/Central Rockies, and eastern Great Basin...

...Well above average temperatures across the Central/Eastern U.S;
Critical Risk of Fire Weather for the Central/Southern High Plains
Monday....


Tonight, scattered showers and thunderstorms will proliferate
across the Great Plains with a focus around a dryline extending
south across the Central/Southern Plains. Some more storms are
likely to pop up from the Ohio Valley into the Mid-Atlantic late
this afternoon and early this evening. The Storm Prediction Center
(SPC) issued an Enhanced Risk (level 3/5) of Severe Thunderstorms
across parts of the Central Great Plains and Central and eastern
Virginia tonight. Scattered severe storms capable of producing
several tornadoes, large to very large hail, and damaging wind
gusts are all possible over the Plains with strong/violent
tornadoes possible over parts of Kansas and Nebraska. Severe wind
gusts are probable early this evening across portions of Virginia.
Higher rainfall rates near the surface low pressure center could
produce Flash Flooding tonight, which is partly why a Slight Risk
(at least 15%) of Excessive Rainfall is in effect for parts of
southeastern South Dakota, northeastern Nebraska and northwestern
Iowa. Cold air flowing into the backside of the Plains system,
where moisture will also be present, will support moderate to
heavy snow to develop over parts of the Central Rockies tonight.
Anywhere between 6 to 12 inches of snow with isolated higher
amounts are possible. Dry and windy conditions will support a
Critical Risk of Fire Weather across portions of the
Central/Southern High Plains into this evening.

The severe weather threat shifts into the Mississippi Valley,
while snow develops over the Northwest on Tuesday. Scattered
showers and thunderstorms are expected to propagate into the
Upper/Middle Mississippi Valley Tuesday morning and then over the
Lower Mississippi Valley Tuesday afternoon. SPC has another
Enhanced Risk of Severe Thunderstorms out over parts of southeast
Iowa, northern Missouri and west-central Illinois with a broader
Slight Risk (level 2/5) area extending from northern Iowa down to
the ArkLaTex on Tuesday. Scattered severe storms capable of
producing significant/severe hail and tornadoes is forecast where
the Enhanced Risk is currently in effect. Excessive Rainfall
threats remain marginal over the same areas with the possibility
of a targeted Slight Risk area being issued as we get closer to
the event.

Snow will likely develop on the backside of a pair of cold fronts
pushing through the Northwest on Tuesday/Tuesday night, while
thunderstorms move farther into the Upper Mississippi Valley and
Midwest. Snow accumulations of around 6-12 inches are likely over
the ranges of northwestern Wyoming into southern Montana, while
8-18 inches with isolated higher amounts possible over the Bighorn
Mountains. Showers and thunderstorms move into the Mid-Atlantic
and Northeast on Wednesday with a Slight Risk of Severe Storms
over parts of the Lower Ohio Valley into the Mid-South according
to the SPC. Mid to upper-level troughing over the northern tier
will support generally average to below average temperatures
across that area over the next couple of days while ridging over
the southern tier will support above average temps.


Kebede


Graphics available at
https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/basicwx/basicwx_ndfd.php

$$