Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tampa Bay Area, FL

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FXUS62 KTBW 221855
AFDTBW

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tampa Bay Ruskin FL
255 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

...New DISCUSSION, AVIATION, MARINE, FIRE WEATHER...

.DISCUSSION...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

We are ending this week on a soggy and cloudy note due to a low
pressure system that continues to spin in the Gulf of Mexico. This
is helping to bring rounds of light to moderate rain to the west
coast of Florida. Even though the showers have been on going for
most of the day in some locations totals have been generally staying
below 2 inches. Currently on radar we still have another round of
showers about 20 miles away from the coast that is heading our way.
Once again the heaviest showers should be in Southwest Florida with
more lighter showers in West Central Florida.

Showers will be completely done by midnight however we will have one
final shot of an isolated shower or two Saturday morning as the
front drags across the state. After the gloomy morning sunshine
should be returning throughout the day with highs approaching 80
degrees. A secondary cold front will push through early Sunday. No
showers expected with it but it will help to bring some slightly
cooler for Sunday with highs in the mid to upper 70`s and lows
monday morning in the 50`s.

High pressure will be sitting over the area for early next week with
a quick warm up heading our way. Highs by Tuesday will reach the mid
to upper 80`s.  Our next system is expected to push through starting
late on Wednesday into early Thursday morning morning. This one is
expected to bring some scattered showers to the area with once again
some slightly cooler air behind it.


&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

We will see on and off showers throughout the day at our TAF
sites. Showers should be ending between 03-06z. We can expect
mainly VFR conditions outside of brief MVFR CIGS and MVFR/IFR
Visibility due to heavy showers. Winds will mainly be out of a
southerly direction and will be gusting out of the south
throughout the daytime hours.


&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

After a very windy morning and afternoon winds have started
to slowly drop down and that will be the trend for the rest of the
today. A secondary cold front will be pushing through late Saturday
and into Sunday morning. This will shift winds to the northeast and
bring gusty winds back into the forecast starting late Saturday
night with another Small Craft Advisory most likely needing to be
issued. Winds will start to die down by Sunday evening and shift to
the north and northwest. Winds will shift to the southeast by Monday
but winds will still stay breezy with speeds around 10 to 15 knots.
These conditions will continue through Wednesday.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 253 PM EDT Fri Mar 22 2024

Low pressure over the area will keep these moist through
Saturday. A secondary cold front will push through on Sunday which
will drop RHs into the low to mid 40`s and bring sunshine back into
the forecast. No fire weather concerns are expected.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TPA  65  79  60  77 /  40  20   0   0
FMY  66  81  61  79 /  80  30   0   0
GIF  64  80  59  76 /  60  20   0   0
SRQ  67  78  62  79 /  60  20   0   0
BKV  60  77  56  77 /  40  20   0   0
SPG  66  76  63  76 /  50  20   0   0

&&

.TBW WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for Coastal
     Charlotte-Coastal Hillsborough-Coastal Lee-Coastal Manatee-
     Coastal Sarasota-Pinellas.

Gulf waters...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM EDT Saturday for Charlotte
     Harbor and Pine Island Sound-Coastal waters from Bonita
     Beach to Englewood FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters from
     Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20 NM-Coastal waters
     from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL out 20 NM-Tampa
     Bay waters-Waters from Bonita Beach to Englewood FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Englewood to Tarpon Springs FL out 20
     to 60 NM-Waters from Tarpon Springs to Suwannee River FL
     out 20 to 60 NM.


&&

$$

DISCUSSION/AVIATION/MARINE/FIRE WEATHER...Shiveley
DECISION SUPPORT...ADavis
UPPER AIR/CLIMATE...ADavis


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