Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 141231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Mar 14 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 14-Mar 16 2024 is 3.67 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 14-Mar 16 2024

             Mar 14       Mar 15       Mar 16
00-03UT       1.33         3.00         2.67
03-06UT       2.67         2.00         2.33
06-09UT       2.00         2.00         2.00
09-12UT       2.00         2.67         2.00
12-15UT       2.67         2.67         2.00
15-18UT       2.67         2.67         2.00
18-21UT       2.67         2.67         2.00
21-00UT       3.67         3.00         2.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 14-Mar 16 2024

              Mar 14  Mar 15  Mar 16
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Mar 14 2024 0604 UTC.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 14-Mar 16 2024

              Mar 14        Mar 15        Mar 16
R1-R2           15%           15%           15%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: A slight chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due
to isolated M-class flare activity will persist through the forecast
period as AR 3599 exits the western limb.


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