Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
000
FXXX10 KWNP 121231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Mar 12 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Mar 12-Mar 14 2024 is 3.00 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Mar 12-Mar 14 2024

             Mar 12       Mar 13       Mar 14
00-03UT       3.00         1.67         2.33
03-06UT       1.00         1.33         1.33
06-09UT       1.00         1.33         2.00
09-12UT       2.00         1.33         2.00
12-15UT       1.33         1.33         2.00
15-18UT       1.33         1.33         2.67
18-21UT       1.33         1.67         2.67
21-00UT       2.00         1.67         2.00

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Mar 12-Mar 14 2024

              Mar 12  Mar 13  Mar 14
S1 or greater    5%      5%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Mar 12-Mar 14 2024

              Mar 12        Mar 13        Mar 14
R1-R2           20%           20%           10%
R3 or greater    5%            5%            1%

Rationale: A slight chance for R1-2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts due
to isolated M-class flare activity will persist through the forecast
period primarily due to the potential exhibited by AR 3599.


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.