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000
FXXX10 KWNP 130031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2024 Apr 13 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Apr 13-Apr 15 2024 is 4.67 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Apr 13-Apr 15 2024

             Apr 13       Apr 14       Apr 15
00-03UT       2.33         1.67         4.00
03-06UT       1.67         1.67         3.67
06-09UT       2.00         4.00         3.33
09-12UT       1.67         3.00         3.00
12-15UT       2.00         3.00         3.00
15-18UT       2.33         4.00         2.33
18-21UT       2.33         4.67 (G1)    2.00
21-00UT       2.67         4.00         2.33

Rationale: Isolated periods of G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely
on 14 Apr due to a combination of CME and CH HSS influences.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-18 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Apr 13-Apr 15 2024

              Apr 13  Apr 14  Apr 15
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Apr 13-Apr 15 2024

              Apr 13        Apr 14        Apr 15
R1-R2           35%           35%           35%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: There is a chance for R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) radio blackouts
over 13-15 Apr.