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000
FXUS65 KTFX 162057
AFDTFX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
257 PM MDT Thu May 16 2013

.DISCUSSION...
Thursday through Saturday...Moist flow aloft and multiple weak
upper level disturbances will move across the area ahead of a low
pressure trough that will move across the area throughout the
weekend. Showers and afternoon thunderstorms will increase in
coverage through the weekend. No severe thunderstorms are expected
at this time however isolated strong gusty winds and hail will be
possible. The area with the largest chance of widespread
precipitation will continue to be Southwest Montana where low
level moisture will be the most abundant throughout the period.
Less chance of wide spread precipitation to the north as the Moist
flow at mid level dramatically decreases north of the Little Belt
Mountains. Suk

SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY...FAIRLY GOOD MODEL AGREEMENT
THROUGH THE PERIOD. EXPECT AN UNSETTLED WEATHER PATTERN AS THE BROAD
UPPER TROUGH...ALREADY IN PLACE...MOVES EASTWARD. ON TUESDAY WEAK
RIDGING BUILDS INTO THE AREA. THE ECMWF HAS THE RIDGE BUILDING A
LITTLE STRONGER NORTH INTO MONTANA...BUT THE RIDGING IS SHORT LIVED.
BY TUESDAY NIGHT THE AREA HAS DIFFLUENT FLOW WHILE BETWEEN SYSTEMS.
BY WEDNESDAY MORNING THE CWA WILL START TO FEEL THE EFFECTS OF THE
LOW IN THE PAC NW. AS FAR AS PRECIPITATION GOES...MODEL SOUNDINGS
CONTINUE TO SHOW DEEP MOISTURE THROUGH MONDAY MORNING...BUT NOT AS
MUCH INSTABILITY. MOST OF PRECIPITATION WILL FALL AS RAIN WITH THE
EXCEPTION OF THE HIGHEST OF ELEVATIONS. THIS WEEKEND`S SYSTEM WILL
BRING MUCH NEEDED RAINFALL OVER MUCH OF THE STATE...WITH ADDITIONAL
CHANCES BY THE END OF NEXT WEEK. MERCER

&&

.AVIATION...
UPDATED 1745Z.
Forecast area will remain beneath a moist and somewhat unstable flow
aloft as an upper level trough moves slowly inland along the west
coast. Occasional disturbances ejecting from the main trough will
bring scattered to numerous showers to the northern half of the
forecast area through late Friday morning. In this area, VFR
conditions should prevail today and tonight with areas of MVFR in
and around showers before However, southwest Montana and the
southern portion of central Montana will see widespread stratiform
rain and high mountain snows develop after 06Z with MVFR/IFR
condition and mountain obscurations likely. mpj

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
GTF  64  45  61  44 /  50  50  70  50
CTB  64  42  63  41 /  40  40  50  40
HLN  65  46  63  45 /  60  60  80  60
BZN  66  42  62  41 /  70  70  80  70
WEY  61  43  56  39 /  70  60  70  60
DLN  63  43  59  41 /  70  70  80  80
HVR  71  47  68  46 /  50  60  60  50
LWT  64  46  59  43 /  80  80  70  70

&&

.TFX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Suk
LONG TERM...MERCER
AVIATION...mpj

weather.gov/greatfalls