Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 261849
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1149 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 1134 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

CLOUDY SKIES ARE HOLDING ACROSS A MAJORITY OF THE FORECAST AREA
WITH SOME FLURRIES OBSERVED HERE AND THERE. TEMPERATURES HAVE
CLIMBED TO NEAR THEIR EXPECTED HIGHS...WITH LITTLE MORE GAINS
EXPECTED. SOME CLEARING OF THE LOW STRATUS IS STARTING TO OCCUR
ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST WYOMING AND FAR NORTHWEST SOUTH
DAKOTA...BUT SOME MID LEVEL CLOUDINESS IS WORKING ITS WAY NORTH
INTO THESE AREAS. HAVE EXTENDED THE SCATTERED FLURRIES FOR MUCH OF
THE AREA INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS AND MADE SOME ADJUSTMENTS TO
CLOUD COVER AND TEMPS TO ACCOUNT FOR CURRENT TRENDS. MAJORITY OF
SHORT TERM FORECAST IS ON TRACK. UPDATES OUT.

&&

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 323 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

CURRENT SURFACE ANALYSIS SHOWS LOW PRESSURE OVER NORTHEAST
KS...WITH FRONTAL BOUNDARY DRAPED ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS INTO
THE ROCKIES. HIGH PRESSURE IS CENTERED OVER THE CANADIAN PRAIRIE
PROVS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS LARGE SCALE TROF CONTINUING TO
DIG SOUTHEASTWARD OVER THE ROCKIES...WITH LOW PRESSURE WITHIN THE
TROF OVER THE FOUR CORNERS AREA. STRONG UPPER JET WRAPS AROUND THE
TROF FROM THE PACIFIC NW...TO THE DESERT SW...THEN NORTHEASTWARD
TO THE CENTRAL AND SOUTHERN PLAINS. SKIES REMAIN CLOUDY OVER THE
AREA...WITH LINGERING AREAS OF LIGHT SNOW FROM FAR SOUTHWEST INTO
SOUTH CENTRAL SD. SNOW IS ON THE LIGHTER SIDE AND ANY ADDITIONAL
ACCUMULATIONS THROUGH THE MORNING SHOULD GENERALLY BE LESS THAN AN
INCH. TEMPS ARE CURRENTLY IN THE MID TEENS TO LOWER 20S IN MOST
AREAS WITH NORTHERLY WINDS.

A QUIETER...BUT COLD...WX PATTERN CAN BE EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT
COUPLE OF DAYS AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SLOWLY SLIDES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. FOR TODAY...SKIES WILL REMAIN ON THE CLOUDY
SIDE...ESPECIALLY THROUGH THE MORNING AND MIDDAY HOURS...AS LARGE
AREA OF STRATUS REMAINS OVER THE REGION. SOME BREAKS IN THE CLOUDS
ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...ESPECIALLY ACROSS WESTERN PORTIONS
OF THE CWA. MAIN CHANCES FOR LIGHT SNOW WILL REMAIN ACROSS
PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL SD THROUGH THE DAY...ESPECIALLY THIS
MORNING. WILL KEEP ISOLATED FLURRIES IN THE FORECAST ELSEWHERE
THIS MORNING AS STRATUS HANGS AROUND. TEMPS WILL NOT BUDGE MUCH
TODAY...REMAINING IN THE LOW TO MID 20S FOR MOST AREAS.

CLOUDS WILL GRADUALLY DECREASE TONIGHT AS HIGH PRESSURE MOVES
THROUGH THE CENTRAL AND EASTERN DAKOTAS AND WEAKENS. LOWS WILL DROP
INTO THE SINGLE DIGITS...WITH SOME USUAL COLD SPOTS POSSIBLY
DROPPING BELOW ZERO BY SAT MORNING. SATURDAY SHOULD START OFF MOSTLY
SUNNY IN THE MORNING...WITH SOME INCREASING CLOUDS FROM THE
NORTHWEST IN THE AFTERNOON. HIGHS WILL BE IN THE 20S WITH WINDS FROM
THE WEST TO SOUTHWEST IN MOST AREAS. CLOUDS WILL INCREASE FURTHER
SATURDAY NIGHT AS THE NEXT SYSTEM BEGINS TO APPROACH THE REGION FROM
THE WEST-NORTHWEST. LOWS WILL BE IN THE 5 TO 15 DEGREE RANGE.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 323 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

NEXT UPPER WAVE EMBEDDED IN PERSISTENT NORTHWEST FLOW DIGS
THROUGH THE NORTHERN ROCKIES. THIS WILL BRING ANOTHER ROUND OF
LIGHT SNOW TO MUCH OF THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY MONDAY.
SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR SLIPS INTO NORTHERN PLAINS
MONDAY/TUESDAY...WITH 1055MB HIGH CENTERED ACROSS NORTHEAST
WYOMING/WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TUESDAY MORNING. TEMPERATURES
MONDAY/TUESDAY WILL BE IN SINGLE DIGITS ABOVE ZERO. WIND CHILLS
WILL DROP TO -10 TO -30F...ESPECIALLY MONDAY NIGHT. SLOW
MODERATION IN TEMPERATURES FOR THE END OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 955 AM MST FRI DEC 26 2014

WIDESPREAD MVFR AND LOCALIZED IFR CIGS WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE
AREA THROUGH THIS EVENING...ALONG WITH A FEW SNOW FLURRIES. CLOUDS
ARE EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE FROM WEST TO EAST LATE TONIGHT.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...15
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...JOHNSON





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