Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 211715

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1115 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 146 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Broad upper ridging across the western CONUS has now built across
the area. WV imagery shows a shortwave crossing along the nrn MT
border pushing eastward. High clouds are streaming across the nrn
Plains. Temps are currently in the upper 30s to upper 40s with light
southerly winds. Upper wave will cross the nrn ND border today with
a weak surface trough crossing the area. NW winds will develop this
morning behind the trough with breezy conditions mainly across the
nw SD plains. Otherwise a quiet day is expected with highs in the
60s to around 70. Lows tonight will drop into the 30s to low 40s.
Surface high will cross the area this evng then shift late Fri night
into Sat morning with srly flow developing. Models then show a
surface low crossing the CWA Saturday with srly winds becoming nwrly
into the aftn. Highs will reach the upper 60s to upper 70s. Winds
will calm in the evng with lows again dropping into the 30s to low

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Through Thursday)
Issued at 146 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Broad upper ridge over the central conus will bring dry and mild
conditions into early next week. Some weak energy rotating newd
from the mean ern pac trof will flatten the ridge towards mid
week, and may bring small chances for pcpn and slightly cooler
temps. The upper ridge will then likely rebuild for the end of the


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday)
Issued At 1114 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

VFR conditions through the period.


Issued At 146 AM MDT Fri Oct 21 2016

Dry westerly flow will develop over the area on Saturday. Minimum
relative humidity values will low over much of the CWA. The driest
locations are expected to be across parts of northeast
Wyoming...and southwest to south central South Dakota especially
southwestern SD and parts of northeastern WY where the minimum
relative humidity could reach 15 percent or lower. Westerly winds
of 15 to 25 mph with higher gusts are also possible. These
conditions may produce critical fire weather conditions Saturday
afternoon. A Fire Weather Watch has been issued.


SD...Fire Weather Watch Saturday afternoon for SDZ262>265.

WY...Fire Weather Watch Saturday afternoon for WYZ259-298.



LONG TERM...Johnson
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