Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 120008
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
508 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 506 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

WINDS ARE SUBSIDING SO HAVE ALLOWED THE WIND ADVISORY FOR WCNTRL
SD TO EXPIRE AS SCHEDULED. NO OTHER CHANGES AT THIS TIME.

&&

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

FAST NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT REMAINS ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS.
SKIES ARE CLOUDY FROM NORTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL
SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH RADAR SHOWING LIGHT ECHOES ACROSS THAT AREA.
AT THE SURFACE...STATIONARY BOUNDARY CONTINUES TO WAVER ACROSS
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA...WITH LOW PRESSURE ACROSS
SOUTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. WINDS ARE OUT OF THE NORTHWEST AT 20 TO
35 MPH...AND TEMPS ARE IN THE 40S TO MID 50S.

LATE THIS AFTERNOON...BEST ATMOSPHERIC MIXING WILL WAIN...WHICH
SHOULD ALLOW WINDS TO TAPER OFF THROUGH THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS.
AS SURFACE LOW SHIFTS TO THE SOUTHEAST...STATIONARY BOUNDARY WILL
SLIDE BACK WEST...AND WINDS WILL BECOME NORTH TO NORTHEAST ACROSS
NORTHWESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

TONIGHT...COLD AIR WILL AGAIN MOVE SOUTH AND WESTWARD BEHIND THE
BOUNDARY...AS HIGH PRESSURE BEGINS TO SINK INTO THE NORTHERN
PLAINS. WITH SOME LIGHT NORTHEAST UPSLOPING WINDS DEVELOPING ON
BOTH THE SD PLAINS AND NORTHEASTERN WY...FOG MAY DEVELOP
OVERNIGHT. COULD SEE A LITTLE LIGHT SNOW OVER THE SD PLAINS WITH
BETTER UPSLOPE SNOWS OVER THE NORTHERN BLACK HILLS LATER TONIGHT.
LITTLE ACCUMULATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE PLAINS...BUT 1 TO 2
INCHES WILL BE POSSIBLE OVER THE BLACK HILLS. LOWS WILL BE IN THE
20S.

FRIDAY...COLD AIRMASS WILL LINGER OVER MUCH OF THE CWA ON FRIDAY.
HIGHS WILL RANGE FROM THE MID 20S ACROSS CENTRAL SD...TO THE 30S
ACROSS FAR WESTERN SD...WITH LOW 40S IN NORTHEASTERN WY. LIGHT
PRECIP COULD STICK AROUND THE SOUTH DAKOTA PLAINS...WITH UPSLOPE
SNOWS OVER THE BLACK HILLS PERSISTING THROUGH LATE MORNING. BY
FRIDAY NIGHT...ANOTHER BAND OF PRECIP IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER
THE BAROCLINIC ZONE. TYPE SHOULD BE SNOW IN THE EVENING...BUT THEN
AN INTRUSION OF WARM AIR ALOFT COULD MEAN PRECIP CHANGES TO
FREEZING DRIZZLE/RAIN AFTER MIDNIGHT ACROSS PARTS OF NORTHEAST
WYOMING AND FAR WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.

.LONG TERM...SATURDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL PERSIST ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS THROUGH
THE EXTENDED PERIOD AS RIDGE REMAINS ACROSS THE WESTERN CONUS. BEST
CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION WILL OCCUR ON SATURDAY INTO SATURDAY NIGHT
SHORTWAVE TRACKS ACROSS THE DAKOTAS. FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUPPORT SNOW
ACROSS EASTERN HALF OF FORECAST AREA FOR MOST OF THE EVENT...AS MID
LEVELS STAY BELOW 0C UNTIL THE PRECIPITATION IS ENDING. SMALL POPS
CONTINUE FOR SUNDAY-TUESDAY...WITH BEST CHANCE IN UPSLOPE AREAS OF
NORTHERN BLACK HILLS. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE
WEEKEND...THEN WELL ABOVE AVERAGE FOR THE MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. COULD
SEE SOME MORE WINDY DAYS NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY EVENING
ISSUED AT 224 PM MST THU FEB 11 2016

MVFR/IFR CIGS WILL PERSISTS THROUGH EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR
NORTHWEST INTO CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA. GUSTY NORTHWEST WINDS WITH VFR
CIGS ELSEWHERE THROUGH EARLY EVENING. IFR CIGS WILL SPREAD SOUTHWARD
LATER THIS EVENING INTO NORTHEAST WYOMING AND MUCH OF WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA...WITH LIFR CIGS/VSBY AROUND THE BLACK HILLS. WIDESPREAD
IFR/LIFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT AND FRIDAY MORNING FOR MUCH OF THE
FORECAST AREA.


&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...JOHNSON
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7


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