Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 291718

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1118 AM MDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Saturday Night)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Persistent active nw flow will support yet more chances for
showers and thunderstorms in parts of the fa through the period.
Lingering/exiting mid level vort max over scentral SD continues to
support sct shra there this morning. Otherwise, moist bl with
clearing has allowed for patchy fog across the region. Fog will
persist through mid morning, before burning off. Attention turns
toward the next impulse now over nw MT. This feature is expected
to time over the fa mid afternoon, and when coupled with diurnal
heating will support sct/isold shra/ts over much of the fa, most
numerous over the Black Hills. A few of the hires models have
indicate one or two stronger and potentially severe cells over the
black hills, which is not out of the question given progged ml
capes aoa 1000 J/kg with over 40 knots of deep layer shear.
Shra/ts chances may linger through the night over the se third
with the slowly exiting impulse. Easterly flow may once again
support areas of fog after midnight.

Saturday looks to be a similar setup to Friday with another weak
impulse expected in nw flow. Models do indicate a bit more CAPE
than today, esp over the southern third, possible supporting a few
stronger cells. Any convection remaining in the evening may carry
overnight given a developing llj over scentral SD.

As for temps, slightly warmer but still seasonal conds expected
today with 80s most areas. Waa will allow warmer temps sat with
90s expected on the plains.

.LONG TERM...(Sunday Through Thursday)
Issued at 227 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2016

Weak upper level ridge slides across the northern plains Sunday as
upper low moves into southwestern Canada. With marginal instability,
there is a chance for a few thunderstorms. Upper low continues to
move eastward across southern Canada early next week, with
increasing west-southwest mid level flow across the northern plains.
Series of weak impulses will bring a daily chance of thunderstorms.
Temperatures will be cooler mid-week, but still above average.


.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Saturday)
Issued At 1118 AM MDT Fri Jul 29 2016

VFR conditions generally expected across the area through
tonight. Isolated to scattered showers and thunderstorms will
occur this afternoon into tonight, best chances from the Black
Hills area to southern SD, with local MVFR conditions.


.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...


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