Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 251719
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1019 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2017

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1016 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2017

Weak shortwave is moving over the northern Rockies, and surface
trough stretches over the Dakotas. Skies are mostly cloudy across
the CWA, and radar continues to show some echoes across central
SD. Updated PoPs based on radar and model trends.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Sunday Night)
Issued at 354 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2017

Weak ridging in place over the northern Plains with positively
tilted trof moving through the northern Rockies. Mid to low
stratus covers most of the forecast area, with some isolated snow
showers moving through. At the surface, high pressure is located
over the central Plains. Temperatures at 4am are in the teens to
lower 20s, with light winds.

Today...Upper trof will approach the forecast area. With moderate
surface heating and cooler air moving in aloft, lapse rates will
steepen through the day, and induce some isolated to scattered
snow and rain showers across the area. Best chances will be across
Northeast Wyoming, the Black Hills, and northwestern South Dakota.
A quick half inch of snow will be possible with some of the
heavier showers. High temperatures today will be in the 30s, with
a few low 40s possible across the South Dakota plains where there
is little snow cover. Breezy conditions will be found across
northwest South Dakota.

Upper trof crosses the area this evening, with snow showers
continuing through midnight. Shower activity diminishes after
midnight, with low temperatures falling into the teens overnight.

Sunday...Weak upper ridging returns to the area with cloud cover
on the decrease during the day. A surface trof will cross the area
mid to late day, with breezy westerly winds again across northwest
South Dakota. Temperatures will be a few degrees warmer, in the
lower 30s to lower 40s, coolest over snow covered areas. Winds
decrease Sunday night with low temperatures in the teens to lower
20s.

.LONG TERM...(Monday Through Friday)
Issued at 354 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2017

Mostly cloudy and mainly dry weather is expected next week, with
near to slightly below average temperatures in the 30s to low 40s
through Wednesday. A couple of weak disturbances will bring clouds
and the possibility for showers Tuesday, and again Wednesday
night. Best chances look to be across northern portions of the
area. Slightly warmer weather is expected towards the end of next
week, as an upper ridge builds over the western CONUS.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday)
Issued At 1016 AM MST Sat Feb 25 2017

MVFR/LCL IFR conditions with low clouds and rain/snow showers
will move into the area today. Best chances for showers will be
across Northeast WY, the Black Hills, and northwestern SD. These
showers will dissipate this evening. Mainly VFR conditions will be
found across the SD plains south of Interstate 90 today and
tonight.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

Update...Pojorlie
SHORT TERM...15
LONG TERM...15
AVIATION...Pojorlie


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