Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 280927
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
327 AM MDT SUN AUG 28 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today Through Monday Night)
Issued at 326 AM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

Water vapor imagery shows near zonal flow across the region with a
shortwave pushing into the ern Dakotas. An upper low is crossing
Alberta within the overall main upper flow which stays in Canada
through the short term. A surface trough/weak frontal boundary
currently sits across ern MT/WY. This front will cross the CWA
through the day today before stalling out this afternoon over scntrl
SD. Temps across the plains will reach the upper 80s to upper 90s
with the warmest temps across cntrl SD just ahead of the boundary.
Boundary layer is dry enough that no precip is expected today.
Mostly sunny skies today will continue as mostly clear skies tonight
with lows dropping into the mid 50s to mid 60s. Quiet weather will
continue Monday with highs slightly cooler...reaching the 80s to low
90s. Dry weather will continue...with the only possible except being
isolated storms across the BH in the aftn. Forecast soundings show
the cap weakening some...perhaps enough for convergence across the
BH to bring a storm or two. However with lack of upper level
support...confidence is not high that anything will develop.

.LONG TERM...(Tuesday Through Saturday)
Issued at 326 AM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

An upper level ridge will dominate the weather for Tuesday and
Wednesday with southwest flow slowly developing for the end of the
week. Precipitation chances early on will be quite low and
probably terrain rooted. As southwest flow develops, synoptic
support in the form of transient shortwaves may kick off slightly
better chances for storms. A better looking chance for storms may
develop for next Sunday into Labor Day given decent upper trough
moving through, but that is a long way out.

Temperatures through the long term will be very warm with dry
afternoon relative humidities, sometimes dropping into the teens
over northeast Wyoming. The dry air doesn`t look quite as pervasive
as previous guidance had shown.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS Through 12Z Monday Morning)
Issued At 326 AM MDT Sun Aug 28 2016

VFR conditions expected through the period.

&&

.UNR Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...13
LONG TERM...Helgeson
AVIATION...Helgeson


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