Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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262
FXUS63 KUNR 182130
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
230 PM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Saturday)
Issued at 230 PM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

Current surface analysis shows frontal boundary nearly
stationary from eastern MT and northwest SD to southeast SD and
northeast NE. Upper level analysis shows trough that affected the
area yesterday is over the Great Lakes region, while ridge is in
place over the western US. Fast northwest flow remains over the
Northern Plains. Skies are variably cloudy, with a batch of midlevel
clouds sliding southeast across far northeast WY and western SD.
Temps range from the 30s over the Black Hills and far northwest SD
to the mid 40s across parts of southwest and south central SD. Brisk
northwesterly winds continue across much of the area, especially the
SD plains.

A dry and mostly mild pattern will continue for the next week as
general pattern aloft remains in place across the region. Medium
range models are in pretty good agreement through much of the
period.

For tonight, skies will clear and winds will diminish around sunset.
Colder air in place, along with the clearing skies, light winds, and
dry airmass, will allow temps to drop to the mid teens to mid 20s
overnight. Warm advection aloft will take place late tonight through
Monday, allowing for a warming trend Sunday and Monday. Highs Sunday
will be in the 50s, with some 60s on Monday. A quick moving cold
front will slide through the area late Monday and Monday night,
bringing breezy conditions and a sharp cooldown for Tuesday. A weak
shortwave accompanying the front could bring a few light showers to
northeast WY and the northern Black Hills late Monday into Monday
evening, but better chances should stay west and southwest of the
forecast area.

The cooldown will be short-lived as ridge will rebuild over the
Rockies midweek, bringing milder air back to the area. The forecast
for Wednesday through Friday is still mild and dry, with highs
mostly in the mid 50s to mid 60s each day. Another cold front is
progged to cross the area sometime later Friday or Friday night,
dropping temps back to more seasonable levels for the weekend, along
with a chance for rain or snow showers as the front crosses.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday)
Issued At 1023 AM MST Sat Nov 18 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Midlevel
moisture overspreading the area from eastern MT will produce a SCT
to BKN deck of clouds through the afternoon, but cigs will remain
VFR. FEW to SCT cumulus with lower cigs should generally remain
near the Black Hills. Gusts out of the northwest could produce
some crosswind concerns this afternoon but should subside around
sunset.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...26
AVIATION...Sherburn



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