Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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035
FXUS63 KUNR 090903
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
203 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

STRONG NORTHWEST FLOW CONTINUES OVER THE CENTRAL STATES...WITH A
120 KT UPPER JET BETWEEN THE LOW OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND THE
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS. MID-LEVEL CLOUDS ARE STREAMING
THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS...POSSIBLY PRODUCING A FEW FLURRIES
ACROSS CENTRAL SD ALONG THE STATIONARY BOUNDARY. WINDS ARE
LIGHT..AND TEMPS ARE IN THE UPPER 20S TO LOWER 30S.

SCATTERED FLURRIES WILL CONTINUE THIS MORNING ACROSS WEST CENTRAL SD
AND THE NORTHERN HILLS. CHANCES OF RAIN/SNOW WILL BE POSSIBLE THIS
AFTERNOON AND EVENING ALONG THE BAROCLINIC ZONE AS MOISTURE
INCREASES AND WEAK UPPER ENERGY PASSES OVER THE AREA. PROFILES
CONTINUE TO INDICATE THE POSSIBILITY OF FREEZING RAIN THIS EVENING
ACROSS CENTRAL SD...SO HAVE ADDED MENTION IN GRIDS. HIGHS TODAY
WILL RANGE FROM THE LOWER 30S ACROSS SOUTH CENTRAL SD...TO THE
UPPER 40S FARTHER WEST.

WINDS WILL BECOME WESTERLY EARLY WEDNESDAY AS WEAK SURFACE LOW
SLIDES INTO SD...AND WARM AIR WILL ADVECT INTO THE AREA. HIGHS WILL
BE IN THE MID 40S TO MID 50S...WARMEST ALONG THE EASTERN FOOTHILLS.
COOLER AIR BEGINS PUSHING INTO THE REGION DURING THE AFTERNOON
WITH BREEZY NORTHWEST WINDS. LOWS WEDNESDAY NIGHT WILL BE IN THE
20S.

.LONG TERM...THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

AN UPPER RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN CONUS WILL CREATE AMPLIFIED
NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT ON THURSDAY AND FRIDAY. MID LEVEL IMPULSES
PASSING TO THE EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA WILL PUSH A BACKDOOR COLD
FRONT INTO CENTRAL AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA WITH THE EASTERN HALF
OF THE FORECAST AREA COOLING DOWN FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. THE UPPER
TROUGH WILL CROSS THE REGION ON SATURDAY FOLLOWED BY AN UPPER
TROUGH THAT WILL BRING LOW CHANCES OF RAIN OR SNOW ON SATURDAY
NIGHT AND SUNDAY. MILD AND DRY NW FLOW WILL REDEVELOP BEHIND THE
DEPARTING UPPER TROUGH AS THE ARCTIC AIR WILL REMAIN BOTTLED TO
THE NORTH DUE TO FLOW BLOCKING OVER CENTRAL CANADA. OVERALL...LOOK
FOR MILD CONDS FOR MUCH OF THE AREA WED-THUR...WITH COOLER TEMPS
OVER THE EASTERN HALF FRI-SAT BEFORE MILD WEATHER RETURNS TO ALL
AREAS EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING
ISSUED AT 157 AM MST TUE FEB 9 2016

VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL OVER MOST OF THE AREA TODAY.
SCATTERED SNOW SHOWERS OR FLURRIES ARE EXPECTED OVER PARTS OF
WESTERN AND CENTRAL SOUTH DAKOTA THROUGH THE MORNING WITH SCATTERED
RAIN SHOWERS OR SNOW SHOWERS THIS AFTERNOON. MVFR CIGS ARE POSSIBLE
WITH ANY SHOWERS OR FLURRIES.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...POJORLIE
LONG TERM...10
AVIATION...10



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