Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 160448
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1048 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

FAIR WEATHER IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST THROUGH THE SHORT TERM. THE
LATEST WATER VAPOR AND 500-MB HEIGHTS SHOW A RATHER SHARP RIDGE
OVER THE WRN CONUS...WITH A BROAD/LARGE TROUGH OVER THE ERN CONUS.
THIS PATTERN WILL CHANGE LITTLE THE NEXT TWO DAYS AS THE RIDGE
TRANSLATES VERY SLOWLY EWD. NORTHWEST FLOW DOWNSTREAM OF THE RIDGE
WILL BRING ONLY SOME MID/HIGH CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THE
EXCEPTION COULD BE SOME PATCHY FOG OVER FAR SRN AREAS OF THE CWA
LATE TNGT/ERLY TUE MRNG WHERE FOG WAS PRESENT THIS MRNG.
HOWEVER...EXPECT THE WINDS TO BE BIT STRONGER TNGT WITH MORE BLYR
MIXING AS THE SFC HIGH PRES MOVES SOUTHEAST. WARM ADVECTION ALSO
WILL OCCUR OVERNIGHT AND TUE...WITH TEMPS ABOUT 5-10 DEGREES
HIGHER THAN TODAY. DRY WEATHER IS EXPECTED THROUGH AT LEAST 12Z
WED.

&&

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 138 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE WILL BUILD ACROSS THE
WESTERN CONUS THROUGH THURSDAY...BRINGING DRY CONDITIONS AND NEAR
TO ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES. UPPER RIDGE AXIS SLIDES ACROSS THE
CWA AND BEGINS TO BREAK DOWN ON THURSDAY. WITH THERMAL RIDGE OVER
THE AREA...WILL SEE THE WARMEST TEMPS OF THE WEEK. A WEAK UPPER
TROF AND COOL FRONT WILL SLIDE THROUGH THE NORTHERN PLAINS LATE
THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY. THIS WILL BRING SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES
AND A CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY INTO EARLY
SATURDAY. THE WESTERN RIDGE THEN REFORMS AND BUILDS AGAIN ON
SUNDAY...RESULTING IN DRY CONDITIONS FOR THE FORECAST AREA INTO
EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1047 PM MDT MON SEP 15 2014

VFR CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...MLS
AVIATION...JOHNSON






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