Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 180454
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
954 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

.SHORT TERM...(This Evening Through Wednesday Night)
Issued at 136 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

Latest upper analysis shows the region under the influence of a
an upper ridge. The surface analysis depicts a weakly defined N-S
oriented trough across the central Dakotas/Nebraska. Relatively
light westerly winds have developed across northeastern Wyoming
and western South Dakota to the west of the sfc trough. High
temperatures vary greatly this afternoon with 50s over parts of
the Black Hills and over a small part of south central South
Dakota. Much of the rest of the area is still experiencing
temperatures in the 30s. Light westerly winds will continue
tonight with low temperatures mainly in teens to mid 20s. On
Wednesday, the surface trough will shift slightly westward, into
the western Dakotas/Nebraska. 850mb temperatures will generally be
around 3C warmer than today. So expect to see slightly warmer
temperatures on Wednesday afternoon except possibly toward central
South Dakota where a southeasterly competent to the sfc winds may
develop to the east of the sfc trough late Wednesday aftn.

.LONG TERM...(Thursday Through Tuesday)
Issued at 136 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

As upper ridging remains across the region Thursday,
another relatively warm and dry day is expected. A west coast upper
trough will move into the region towards the end of the week and
into the weekend, bringing cooler air (highs in the 30s) and chances
for light precipitation. Dry weather will return briefly Sunday with
another upper ridge, and then precip chances increase again early
next week as another trough moves through. ECMWF and GFS both show a
closed low sliding through CO/NE/KS Tuesday into Wednesday, keeping
most of the precip south of the CWA. Will have to watch this system
for the possibility of a more northerly track.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Wednesday Night)
Issued At 954 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

(For the 00Z TAFS Through 00Z Wednesday Evening)
Issued At 427 PM MST Tue Jan 17 2017

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...Pojorlie
AVIATION...77


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