Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 232052
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
252 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

CURRENT SURFACE MAPS HAS LOW NEAR THE BIG HORN MOUNTAIN...WITH
TROF INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA. SHOWERS INCREASING IN COVERAGE AS
INITIAL SHORTWAVE LIFTS INTO SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA. WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS MAIN SHORTWAVE IN SOUTHWEST WYOMING. MAIN SHORTWAVE
TRACKS INTO WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA TONIGHT...WITH BEST LIFT COMING
THIS EVENING INTO EARLY TUESDAY MORNING. WITH STEEP LAPSE
RATES...SOME THUNDERSTORMS STILL POSSIBLE THROUGH THIS EVENING FOR
NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO FAR SOUTHWEST SOUTH DAKOTA.

ON TUESDAY...MAIN SHORTWAVE LIFTS NORTHEAST OF FORECAST
AREA...WITH IT POSSIBLY CLOSING OFF OVER NORTH DAKOTA. DRY
WESTERLY FLOW WILL SET UP ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY...WITH DIMINISHING CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION. WILL BE WINDY
TUESDAY...WITH STRONGEST WINDS NORTH AND EAST OF THE BLACK HILLS.
SOME SHOWERS WILL REDEVELOP ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING INTO BLACK
HILLS AS ANOTHER SHORTWAVE DROPS SOUTHWARD INTO EASTERN WYOMING.
THIS WILL KEEP THREAT OF SHOWERS THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT...MAINLY
ACROSS SOUTHERN PORTION OF FORECAST AREA.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

MEDIUM RANGE MODELS IN PRETTY GOOD AGREEMENT ON GENERAL
PATTERN THROUGH THE REST OF THE WEEK. WEAK DISTURBANCES IN NORTHWEST
FLOW ALOFT WILL KEEP CONDITIONS UNSETTLED AND TEMPS NEAR SEASONAL
AVERAGES WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY. THE BEST CHANCES FOR PCPN WILL BE
THURSDAY ACROSS NORTHEAST WY AND WRN SD...WITH PRECIP BEGINNING AS
SNOW SHOWERS AND CHANGING TO RAIN SHOWERS IN THE AFTN. WARMER
TEMPERATURES WILL GRADUALLY RETURN FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. MODELS
ARE SUGGESTING A COLD FRONT CROSSING THE REGION SOMETIME OVER THE
WEEKEND WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND COOLER TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY)
ISSUED AT 255 PM MDT MON MAR 23 2015

AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE AND COLD FRONT WILL CROSS THE
THROUGH TONIGHT...BRINGING SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS SHOWERS TO THE
AREA. ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS ARE ALSO EXPECTED ACROSS NORTHEAST WY
AND FAR WESTERN SD THROUGH THE EARLY EVENING. AREAS OF MVFR
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP WITHIN THE SHOWER ACTIVITY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...7
LONG TERM...13
AVIATION...13





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