Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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867
FXUS63 KUNR 201622
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1022 AM MDT Sat May 20 2017

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Friday)
Issued at 237 AM MDT Sat May 20 2017

Latest analysis shows the deep closed low is currently centered
over swrn Nebraska with bands of precipitation rotating around
the low and into parts of western and central South Dakota. The
low pressure system will move slowly eastward today, reaching
northeastern Nebraska by early evening. The rain will gradually
shift eastward today as the low moves away from the forecast area.
Rain will linger over central SD into this afternoon with diurnal
instability possibly supporting sct showers over the
central/southern Black Hills. Low temperatures tonight may be cold
enough for some frost formation, depending on cloud cover. Will
let the day shift determine if/where there may be a need for
frost/freeze headlines tonight.

The upper low will continue to slowly shift eastward, however it
will remain close enough into early next week to support shower
and thunderstorm chances Sun and esp Monday. Phasing NW impulse
will push through the region both days, the strongest being
Monday.

Deep layer ridging is expected through most of the remainder of
the week. This will bring much warmer weather and dry conds to the
region. Models continue to support NW CONUS troughing by the end
of the week with chances for SHRA/TS returning to the forecast by
then.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Sunday)
Issued At 1022 AM MDT Sat May 20 2017

VFR conditions are expected over northeast WY into
northwest SD through Sunday morning. For southwest into south
central SD plains, MVFR conditions are expected through the
afternoon as showers continue. Conditions should improve to VFR
tonight as showers shift south and east of the area.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION...10
AVIATION...Pojorlie



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