Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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FXUS63 KUNR 181651
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1051 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
121 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

-Warm, dry, and breezy today with elevated to near critical fire
 weather conditions

-Chance of snow across far northwest South Dakota late Wednesday
 into Thursday

-Colder with increasing chances of snow across the area this
 weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...(Today Through Sunday)
Issued at 145 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

Current surface map places high pressure across the Dakotas while
water vapor imagery shows strong high across the northern Rockies.
For today, surface high slides east as warm front moves through
the western/central Dakotas. Robust low level warm advection will
push highs into the 60s. Gusty west-northwest winds and relative
humidity around 20 percent will result in elevated fire weather
conditions across the area. With the strongest winds across
northwestern South Dakota, near critical fire weather conditions
are possible there. Weak cold front backs into northwest South
Dakota for Tuesday with baroclinic zone stalling out over the
Northern Plains. Fast moving clipper late Wednesday into Thursday
sets the stage for a banded snow event along the baroclinic zone.
Deterministic and ensemble guidance take higher probabilities of
snow accumulation north of the forecast area, though an inch or
two of snow is possible across far northwest South Dakota.

Heading into the weekend, upper trough digs across the western
CONUS and moves into the plains late in forecast period. Increasing
southwest flow aloft combined with cold Canadian high will result
in period of isentropic lift across the forecast area. Latest
GFS/ECMWF/GEM continue to trend towards higher chances of
accumulating snow Saturday/Sunday. LREF 24 hour snowfall shows
the probability of >1" around 50% while >4" is 20% or less.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 18Z TAFS Through 18Z Tuesday)
Issued At 1051 AM MDT Mon Mar 18 2024

VFR conditions will prevail through the period. Breezy northwest
winds are expected across northwestern SD this afternoon and
evening as a weak front crosses the region. These may reach KRAP
before sundown, but if not, light and variable winds should
prevail this evening into tonight owing to nocturnal
stabilization.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...7
AVIATION...Sherburn


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