Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 070501
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1101 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LATEST SFC ANALYSIS SHOWS HIGH PRESSURE OVER THE AREA THIS AFTN
WITH ZONAL FLOW CHANGING TO SLIGHT RIDGING ALOFT. SYNOPTIC SCALE
SUBSIDENCE COMBINED WITH SOMEWHAT COOLER THAN EXPECTED
TEMPERATURES IS KEEPING CONVECTIVE SHOWERS FROM DEVELOPING THIS
AFTERNOON...ALTHOUGH THERE MAY EXIST JUST ENOUGH INSTABILITY OVER
THE BLACK HILLS FOR AN ISOLATED -TSRA TO DEVELOP LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THE EARLY EVENING. AREAS OF SMOKE MAY DECREASE
VISIBILITY IN SOME AREAS AGAIN TONIGHT.

THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SHIFT EAST ON TUESDAY ALLOWING SOUTHERLY
RETURN FLOW TO DEVELOP OVER ERN WY. A WEAK THETA-E RIDGE WILL
DEVELOP MODEST INSTABILITY DURING THE AFTERNOON SO WILL KEEP THE
CHANCE POPS. A LOW LEVEL JET AND 850/700MB THETA-E ADVECTION
DEVELOPING OVER WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA SUGGEST THAT SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS WILL SPREAD EASTWARD ACROSS MUCH OF THE FORECAST
AREA ON TUESDAY NIGHT. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE TO BE SLIGHTLY
COOLER THAN AVERAGE.

.LONG TERM...WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY
ISSUED AT 236 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED ON WEDNESDAY AS
UPPER LOW CROSSES CENTRAL CANADA AND SHORTWAVE MOVES THROUGH THE
NORTHERN PLAINS. SLIGHT CHANCES FOR PRECIP CONTINUE INTO THURSDAY
AND FRIDAY UNDER DEVELOPING SOUTHWEST UPPER FLOW AND ANOTHER COUPLE
PASSING WAVES. ECM/GFS BOTH SHOWING A LOW CLOSING OFF OVER MT AND
PASSING TO THE NORTH OF THE CWA...WITH THE ECM A BIT STRONGER. THIS
WOULD BRING SOME SHOWERS AND STORMS TO THE NORTHERN PART OF THE CWA
SATURDAY...BUT THEN BOTH MODELS ARE STILL IN AGREEMENT WITH BRINGING
STRONG UPPER RIDGING OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS. THE RESULT IS A DRIER
SOLUTION FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND. TEMPS WILL BE BELOW TO NEAR
AVERAGE WED/THU...WITH TEMPS RISING TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE AVERAGE
THROUGH THE WEEKEND.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 06Z TAFS THROUGH 06Z TUESDAY NIGHT)
ISSUED AT 1100 PM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

LCL MVFR CIGS WILL PERSIST AROUND THE BLACK HILLS THROUGH
TONIGHT...OTHERWISE VFR CIGS ELSEWHERE. WITH AREA OF SMOKE ACROSS
THE REGION...LCL MVFR VSBY POSSIBLE FROM THE SMOKE. A FEW
THUNDERSTORMS POSSIBLE ACROSS NORTHEAST WYOMING AND WESTERN SOUTH
DAKOTA TUESDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING WITH MVFR CIGS/IFR VSBY.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...10
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...7



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