Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 241758
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
1158 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

.SHORT TERM...TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS A SHORTWAVE CROSSING EASTERN MT THIS
MORNING...WITH A FEW SHOWERS OVER SOUTHEASTERN MT THAT MAY REACH FAR
NORTHWESTERN SD EARLY THIS MORNING. OTHERWISE...SKIES ARE MOSTLY
CLEAR OVER THE FORECAST AREA. ON THE SURFACE...COLD FRONT HAS
FINALLY PUSHED THROUGH SOUTH CENTRAL SD...WITH W-NW WINDS BRINGING
LOWER DEWPOINTS.

TODAY WILL BE MOSTLY SUNNY AND DRY AS SURFACE HIGH PRESSURE
BUILDS OVER THE AREA AND FORECAST SOUNDINGS SHOW LITTLE
INSTABILITY. EXCEPTION WILL BE THE BLACK HILLS WHERE ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE IN THE AFTERNOON...AS CAPE INCREASES
TO MORE THAN 1000 J/KG WITH SOUTHEAST RETURN FLOW. TEMPERATURES
WILL BE QUITE A BIT COOLER THAN THURSDAY.

STRONGER SHORTWAVE WILL MOVE FROM THE GREAT BASIN INTO WY TONIGHT AND
NORTHERN SD SATURDAY...AND INTERACT WITH LEE TROF AND SOUTHERLY
WINDS FOR A BETTER CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS MOST OF WESTERN
SOUTH DAKOTA. MODELS ARE SHOWING AN AREA OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION
OVER CENTRAL SD SATURDAY NIGHT ALONG A THETA-E RIDGE...WHICH MAY
AFFECT OUR EASTERN ZONES.

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY
ISSUED AT 216 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

A WEAK WAVE WILL MOVE THROUGH THE SOUTHWEST FLOW
SUNDAY...BRINGING A SLIGHT CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS.
UPPER TROUGH IS PROGGED TO DEVELOP ACROSS THE NW PAC COAST
SUNDAY...THEN MOVE ACROSS THE NRN PLAINS/SRN CANADA MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. WARM AND UNSTABLE AIR WILL BE ADVECTED INTO THE REGION
AHEAD OF THE LOW...WITH TEMPS IN THE 90S AND DEWPOINTS ACROSS THE
SD PLAINS IN THE 60S BOTH SUNDAY AND MONDAY. GOOD AGREEMENT BETWEEN
GFS/ECM SHOWING STORMS DEVELOPING ALONG A COLD FRONT SOUTH OF THE
SURFACE LOW MONDAY INTO MONDAY NIGHT. COOLER AND DRIER AIR WILL PUSH
IN BEHIND THE FRONT AND REMAIN FOR THE REST OF THE LONG TERM. TEMPS
WILL BE NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY)
ISSUED AT 1142 AM MDT FRI JUL 24 2015

ISOLATED TO SCATTERED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED LATER THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH
TONIGHT ACROSS THE AREA. MVFR CONDITIONS WILL BE POSSIBLE NEAR ANY
STORMS. OTHERWISE VFR CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH SAT MORNING.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...55
LONG TERM...POJORLIE
AVIATION...WARD


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