Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 120543
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1143 PM MDT Mon Mar 11 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
112 PM MDT Mon Mar 11 2024

-Warm, dry and breezy today with elevated to critical fire weather
 conditions

-Cooler Wednesday and Thursday with chance of precipitation

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Monday)
Issued at 112 PM MDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Water vapor shows upper ridge over the Northern Plains/Upper
Midwest with ridge topping short wave over southern Canada.
Further upstream is a weak trof over the Intermountain West with
stronger trof just offshore the Pac NW. At the surface, frontal
boundary associated with aforementioned Canadian short wave has
moved through all but our far southwest SD south-central SD zones.
Early afternoon temps range from the mid 50s in northeast WY and
far northwest SD to the lower 70s in south-central SD, with fairly
dense cirrus overhead.

Frontal boundary will work back northeast across the region
tonight and Tuesday with highs Tuesday afternoon just a touch
cooler than today.

Strong upper trof will dig through the western CONUS on Tuesday
night into Wednesday, with main upper low taking shape over the
Desert Southwest on Wednesday night and Thursday. Lead short wave
ejecting into the Plains will bring an increase in precip across
our area late Tuesday night and continuing into Thursday. Best
forcing will remain to our south, but there is some probability
that a band of heavier precip could extend into south-central SD.
Further west, precip should remain rather light. Given the warm
nature of the system, more of the precip will be in the form of
rain, but a few inches of snow possible in higher elevations of
the Black Hills and northeast WY.

High pressure settles in across the Northern Plains for Friday
with cool and dry conditions expected. Upper low then digs across
central Canada into the Great Lakes this weekend, bringing even
cooler temps, breezy northwest winds, and slightly unsettled
conditions to our region for the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Tuesday Night)
Issued At 1143 PM MDT Mon Mar 11 2024

VFR conditions will continue through the forecast period. Breezy
west to southwest winds will develop on Tuesday from southern
parts of northeast WY to far southern SD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued At 112 PM MDT Mon Mar 11 2024

Dense cirrus moving overhead is limiting the critical fire weather
conditions somewhat as temperatures are not quite as warm, RH`s
are a little higher, and winds not quiet as strong. However, very
near critical conditions are still quite widespread especially
south of I-90 and the Red Flag Warning remains in effect through
the afternoon.

Tuesday will be slightly cooler and winds slightly less, but fire
weather conditions will remain elevated.

Further cooling is expected Wednesday and Thursday with better
chances for light precipitation and improved fire weather
conditions as an upper trof moves in.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...Johnson
AVIATION...26


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