Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45
000
FXUS63 KUNR 180421
AFDUNR

Area Forecast Discussion For Western SD and Northeastern WY
National Weather Service Rapid City SD
1021 PM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

.KEY MESSAGES...
135 PM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

-Dry weather continues. Breezy at times with elevated fire weather
 conditions through Tuesday

-Cooler with increasing chances for precipitation for the last
 half of the week, especially this weekend

&&

.DISCUSSION...(This Evening Through Sunday)
Issued at 135 PM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

Western CONUS ridge will shift east this week and eventually
flatten as lower heights surge south with the central Canada
negative height anomaly. Cold front has cleared the region today
with gusty NW winds expected to wane this evening. Very dry air in
place combined with a sfc high over the region (promoting light
winds and clear skies) will allow temps to drop into the teens and
single digits on portions of the SD plains. Warm front will lift
north quickly with much warmer conds expected Monday as highs
climb into the 60s. Sfc trough will shift through the FA Tues and
stall over or near the SW FA, with a cooling trend then ensuing
through the end of the week. Associated baroclinic zone will
provide the pathway for additional impulses, which may allow for a
few snow showers later in the week, esp over NW SD where some
accums will be possible Wed night. Deep western CONUS upper trough
will then cross the Rockies and support more unsettled and cooler
conds this weekend into early next week. Deterministic runs of
GFS/ECMWF/CMC have continue to trend towards a better chance of
precipitation/accumulating snow across the forecast area Sunday
into Monday. However, very low confidence in any single model run
at this time given the lack of consistency in
timing/strength/placement of the surface low and how the
associated upper trough ejects out of the Rockies.

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 06Z TAFS Through 06Z Monday Night)
Issued At 1020 PM MDT Sun Mar 17 2024

VFR conditions are expected through the forecast period. Gusty
northwest winds will redevelop Monday morning.

&&

.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...None.
WY...None.
&&

$$

DISCUSSION/KEY MESSAGES...JC
AVIATION...13


USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.