Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Rapid City, SD

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000
FXUS63 KUNR 011959
AFDUNR

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION FOR WESTERN SD AND NORTHEASTERN WY
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RAPID CITY SD
159 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SHORT TERM...THIS EVENING THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

UPPER RIDGE WILL REMAIN OVER THE WRN CONUS THROUGH THE WEEKEND.
WEAK/SUBTLE SHORT-WAVE TROUGHS ROTATING AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF
THE RIDGE WILL BRING ISOLD-SCT TSRA TO THE AREA...MAINLY DURING
THE AFTN/EVNG HOURS. BEST COVERAGE WILL BE OVER THE BLKHLS. THE
SEVERE POTENTIAL IS LOW GIVEN RATHER WEAK 0-6KM BULK SHEAR AND
500-1000 J/KG OF MLCAPE.

FOR TONIGHT THE STORMS MAY PERSIST WELL PAST SUNSET GIVEN THE WEAK
UPPER TROUGH THAT IS MOVING THROUGH THE CWA. HOWEVER...WEAKER
FORCING ON SATURDAY WILL KEEP TSRA CONFINED MOSTLY TO THE BLKHLS.
OTHERWISE...WINDS WILL REMAIN FAIRLY LOW AND TEMPERATURES WILL
CONTINUE TO RUN NEAR AVERAGE.

&&

.LONG TERM...SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

THE PERSISTENT UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WILL REMAIN ACROSS THE ROCKIES
SUNDAY....WITH WEAK FORCING ACROSS THE NORTHERN PLAINS. BEST
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL BE VICINITY OF BLACK HILLS.
GFS/ECMWF/GEM CONTINUE TO SHOW RIDGE BREAKING DOWN EARLY NEXT
WEEK. MID LEVEL MOISTURE PLUME WITH EMBEDDED TROF/WEAK LOW LIFTS
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN INTO THE NORTHERN ROCKIES/NORTHERN PLAINS
BY TUESDAY. WITH WEAK CAPE/SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...LIMITED SEVERE
POTENTIAL. HOWEVER INCREASING PRECIPITABLE WATER AND SLOW STORM
MOTION COULD RESULT IN LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN. WILL REMAIN UNSETTLED
THROUGH THE END OF THE WEEK AS WEAK UPPER TROF REMAINS ACROSS THE
ROCKIES. TEMPERATURES SLIGHTLY BELOW AVERAGE FOR THE SECOND HALF
OF THE WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION...FOR THE 18Z TAFS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY AFTERNOON
ISSUED AT 155 PM MDT FRI AUG 1 2014

ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS EXPECTED THROUGH THIS EVENING...WITH LCL MVFR
VSBY. OTHERWISE...VFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&
.UNR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
SD...NONE.
WY...NONE.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BUNKERS
LONG TERM...7
AVIATION...7




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