Alert Administrative Message
Issued by NWS Great Falls, MT

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000
NOUS75 KTFX 181958
ADMTFX

ADMINISTRATIVE MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREAT FALLS MT
1242 PM MDT FRI APR 18 2014

TO ALL WFOS SURROUNDING WFO TFX
FM WFO TFX

WFO TFX HAS ISSUED A HEADS-UP EMAIL TO OUR EMERGENCY MANAGEMENT
COMMUNITY AND OTHER PARTNERS.

EMAIL TOPIC...UPDATE: WARMER/WETTER PATTERN CHANGES NEXT WEEK

...REASONING IN EMAIL...

WE ARE CONTINUING TO MONITOR A PATTERN CHANGE THAT WILL FEATURE
ABOVE AVERAGE TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY, FOLLOWED BY A SLOW
MOVING PACIFIC WEATHER SYSTEM EXPECTED TO BRING WIDESPREAD
PRECIPITATION TO THE REGION LATE TUESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY. THIS
WEATHER PATTERN IS EXPECTED TO RAISE THE POTENTIAL FOR RIVER LEVEL
RISES AND LOCALIZED FLOODING.

TEMPERATURES: LOW TEMPERATURES IN
MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL DROP BELOW FREEZING FOR ONLY A FEW HOURS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT. THE FREEZING LEVEL ON MONDAY NIGHT MAY
EXCEED 9000 FEET. DAYTIME TEMPERATURES IN MOUNTAIN AREAS WILL REACH
THE 40S AND 50S UNDER PARTLY TO MOSTLY SUNNY SKIES.

PRECIPITATION:
WIDESPREAD RAINFALL IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP LATE TUESDAY AND
CONITINUE THROUGH WEDNESDAY. SNOW LEVELS TUESDAY NIGHT WILL BE
AROUND 7000 TO 9000 FEET, GRADUALLY DROPPING TO AROUND 4500 TO 6000
FEET BY EARLY THURSDAY. UNCERTAINTY REMAINS WITH REGARD TO
PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS; THE WORST CASE SCENARIO WOULD BE 2 TO 3
INCHES OF RAINFALL IN SOME MOUNTAIN AREAS.

IMPACTS: WARM DAYTIME
AND OVERNIGHT TEMPERATURES WILL WARM AND SOFTEN EXISTING SNOWPACK.
RAIN ON SNOW WILL CAUSE RAPID RISES ON STREAMS AND
RIVERS.

CONFIDENCE:

*HIGH FOR WARM TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY
FOLLOWED BY WIDESPREAD  PRECIPITATION DEVELOPING LATE TUESDAY
THROUGH WEDNESDAY.

*LOW REGARDING SPECIFIC AREAS, ELEVATIONS, AND
AMOUNTS OF PRECIPITATION

THE SITUATION WILL CONTINUE TO BE
MONITORED CLOSELY. RESIDENTS ALONG RIVERS, STREAMS, AND CREEKS
SHOULD PREPARE FOR RISING WATER LEVELS, AND BE PREPARED TO TAKE
ACTION IF WATERWAYS EXCEED THEIR BANKS.

IF YOU HAVE QUESTIONS OR CONCERNS...DO NOT HESITATE TO CALL OR
CHAT US.



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