Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Bismarck, ND

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FXUS63 KBIS 271451
AFDBIS

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BISMARCK ND
851 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

.UPDATE...
ISSUED AT 851 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

UPDATED THE FIRST PERIOD FORECAST TO REMOVE MORNING FOG WORDING
FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAIN REGION SOUTH TO THE JAMES RIVER VALLEY.
OTHERWISE...THE REMAINING FORECAST ELEMENTS ARE IN GOOD SHAPE.
WESTERN AND SOUTH CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA CONTINUE TO BE ON TARGET TO
BREAK RECORD HIGHS THIS AFTERNOON.

UPDATE ISSUED AT 642 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ONLY A FEW MINOR TWEAKS TO THE EARLY MORNING UPDATE. INCREASED
CLOUD COVER A BIT WEST WITH QUITE A BIT OF HIGH LEVEL CLOUDS
STREAMING SOUTHEAST ACROSS WESTERN NORTH DAKOTA. LOWER STRATUS/FOG
HAS REMAINED JUST EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA BUT LOWER TEMPERATURE
DEWPOINT SPREADS REMAIN FROM THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS INTO THE JAMES
RIVER VALLEY. REMOVED PATCHY FOR FOR ALL BUT THE FAR EASTERN CWA
THROUGH 14 UTC.

&&

.SHORT TERM...(TODAY AND TONIGHT)

ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

FORECAST HIGHLIGHTS IN THE SHORT TERM PERIOD WILL BE RECORD HIGHS
TODAY.

CURRENTLY...MID LEVEL WAA SPREADING EAST INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS
WITH UPPER LEVEL RIDGING BUILDING EAST OF THE ROCKIES. WILL
MAINTAIN PATCHY FOG WORDING EARLY THIS MORNING OVER MY CENTRAL AND
EASTERN COUNTIES WITH LOW T/TD SPREADS.

UPPER LEVEL RIDGING WILL PIVOT THROUGH THE REGION TODAY COUPLED
WITH LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING IN THE LEE OF THE MONTANA/WYOMING
ROCKIES. THESE FEATURES WILL MAINTAIN ONGOING WAA THROUGH THE
AFTERNOON ACROSS WESTERN AND CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA. LACK OF SNOW
PACK ALONG AND WEST OF THE MISSOURI RIVER WILL ALLOW RECORD HIGH
TEMPERATURES INTO THE 50S TO LOWER 60S. EAST OF THE MISSOURI SOME
SNOW REMAINS SO HIGHS WILL BE TEMPERED A BIT THERE. ONE CONCERN
FOR HIGHS TODAY IS THE LACK OF A DECENT MIXING WIND (AS WE SAW
MONDAY)...AND THE POTENTIAL FOR UPPER LEVEL CLOUDS (WHICH MODELS
ARE NOT DEPICTING VERY WELL AT THE MOMENT. REGARDLESS WE SHOULD
STILL BE ABLE TO BREAK RECORDS FOR DICKINSON...WILLISTON...AND
BISMARCK. BELOW IS A TABLE COMPARING FORECAST HIGHS TODAY WITH
RECORD HIGHS (JANUARY 27).

LOCATION          TUE HI TEMP  TUE HI TEMP
                  FORECAST     RECORD

DICKINSON         61           51 IN 2008
WILLISTON         54           47 IN 1931
BISMARCK          56           48 IN 2008
MINOT             50           55 IN 1906
JAMESTOWN         44           47 IN 1989

CAA BEGINS OVERNIGHT TONIGHT AS A COLD FRONT PUSHES SOUTH FROM
CANADA WITH ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE DEVELOPING INTO CENTRAL SOUTH
DAKOTA. MODELS INDICATING LOW STRATUS ACCOMPANYING THE CAA SO
INCREASED SKY COVER. KEPT THE FORECAST DRY TONIGHT.

.LONG TERM...(WEDNESDAY THROUGH MONDAY)

ISSUED AT 306 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

ON WEDNESDAY TWO SHORTWAVES...ONE MOVING THROUGH THE CENTRAL ROCKIES
AND ANOTHER DROPPING SOUTHEAST THROUGH THE CANADIAN ROCKIES WILL
INDUCE A SURFACE LOW IN THE NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PLAINS. WE BEGIN
THE DAY QUITE MILD WITH MORNING LOWS IN THE MID 20S TO MID 30S...AND
WE SHOULD WARM INTO THE 40S OVER THE FAR SOUTHWEST AND SOUTH
CENTRAL. COLD ADVECTION ON THE BACK SIDE OF THE SURFACE LOW WILL
MOVE INTO THE FAR NORTH DURING THE MORNING AND SPREAD SOUTH ACROSS
THE FORECAST AREA BY AFTERNOON. THE COLD ADVECTION COMBINED WITH THE
MID LEVEL FORCING FROM THE NORTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE IS EXPECTED TO
BRING PRECIPITATION TO MAINLY NORTHERN AND CENTRAL PORTIONS OF THE
FORECAST AREA...WITH THE MOST SIGNIFICANT PRECIPITATION AMOUNTS
REMAINING OVER THE SOUTHERN PRAIRIE PROVINCES OF CANADA INTO
NORTHERN MINNESOTA. WE COULD SEE AN INCH OR SO OF SNOW OVER THE FAR
FAR NORTH CENTRAL INTO THE TURTLE MOUNTAINS. THE REST OF THE
AREA WILL LIKELY EXPERIENCE LITTLE OR NO SNOW ACCUMULATION. IT WILL
TURN NOTICEABLY COLDER AS NORTHWEST WINDS INCREASE OVER THE AREA
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

COLD HIGH PRESSURE THEN MOVES ACROSS THE AREA ON THURSDAY WITH
MAINLY DRY CONDITIONS EXPECTED. WE THEN SEE A BRIEF WARM-UP THURSDAY
NIGHT INTO FRIDAY...BEFORE ANOTHER SURGE OF COLD AIR DROPS OVER THE
AREA FRIDAY NIGHT...AND REMAINS THROUGH THE WEEKEND. THERE WILL
LIKELY BE A BAND OF SNOW SHOWERS THAT ACCOMPANIES THE SURGE OF COLD
AIR AS IT MOVES SOUTH THROUGH THE FORECAST AREA ON SATURDAY. AT THIS
TIME ACCUMULATIONS APPEAR MINIMAL BUT WE DID INTRODUCE SOME SLIGHT
CHANCE TO CHANCE POPS SATURDAY.

THE FAR WEST MAY SEE A BRIEF PERIOD OF WARM ADVECTION LIGHT SNOW
SUNDAY INTO SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT MOST OF THE AREA WILL REMAIN DRY
SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY. AFTER FRIDAY TEMPERATURES WILL DROP TO NEAR
NORMAL SOUTHWEST TO WELL BELOW NORMAL NORTHEAST.

&&

.AVIATION...(FOR THE 12Z TAFS THROUGH 12Z WEDNESDAY MORNING)
ISSUED AT 642 AM CST TUE JAN 27 2015

OVERALL...VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS WILL PREVAIL THROUGH THE 12Z TAF
PERIOD. BETWEEN NOW AND 14Z...PATCHY FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE AT KJMS
DUE TO LIGHT WINDS AND WIDESPREAD SNOW MELT...BUT PROBABILITY IS
TOO LOW TO MENTION. INCREASING LOW STRATUS EXPECTED NEAR THE END OF THE
12Z PERIOD FOR LATE TUESDAY NIGHT INTO WEDNESDAY MORNING.


&&

.HYDROLOGY...

ISSUED AT 316 PM CST MON JAN 26 2015

RIVER AND STREAM RISES HAVE BEEN NOTED ACROSS MUCH OF THE MISSOURI
BASIN TODAY RESULTING FROM SNOW MELT AND RECENT PRECIPITATION ON
FROZEN SOILS. WHILE FLOODING IS NOT EXPECTED FROM RUNOFF
ITSELF...SOME ICE BREAK UP MAY BE POSSIBLE WITH CONTINUED MILD
TEMPERATURES THROUGH TUESDAY. THIS MAY LEAD TO ICE JAMS AND TEMPORARY
HIGH WATER. CONDITIONS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MONITORED FOR ICE JAMS.

&&

.BIS WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NONE.
&&

$$

UPDATE...TM
SHORT TERM...NH
LONG TERM...TWH
AVIATION...NH
HYDROLOGY...AJS






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