Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 212102
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
202 PM MST SUN DEC 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING SEASONABLY WARM DRY WEATHER TO SOUTHERN
NEW MEXICO AND WEST TEXAS ON MONDAY BEFORE A RATHER STRONG COLD
FRONT PUSHES THROUGH THE BORDERLAND MONDAY NIGHT. THE FRONT ALONG
WITH AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL CAUSE MUCH COOLER
TEMPERATURES TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SLIGHT CHANCES OF
RAIN AND SNOW MAINLY AROUND THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. WESTERLY
WINDS WILL THEN BRING MILDER TEMPERATURES AND DRY WEATHER FOR
CHRISTMAS DAY AND FRIDAY BEFORE ANOTHER WEAKER COLD FRONT CAUSES
SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES BUT OTHERWISE DRY MOSTLY SUNNY WEATHER
NEXT WEEKEND.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
HIGH AMPLITUDE UPPER RIDGE ALONG THE WEST COAST WILL INDUCE DRY
SUBSIDING NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT OVER NEW MEXICO/WEST TEXAS ON
MONDAY WHILE LEE SURFACE TROUGH TO THE EAST GENERATES LOW LEVEL
WESTERLIES. AS A RESULT EXPECT DRY WEATHER AGAIN ON MONDAY WITH
WARM TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 TO 10 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL.

MONDAY NIGHT UPPER TROUGH AMPLIFIES OVER THE ROCKY MOUNTAINS AND
HIGH PLAINS WITH STRONG VORTICITY MAX PUSHING SOUTHWARD THROUGH
THE CWA. THIS PATTERN CHANGE WILL BE CONCURRENT WITH A RATHER
STRONG COLD FRONT DROPPING SOUTHWARD THROUGH NEW MEXICO/FAR WEST
TEXAS MONDAY NIGHT/EARLY TUESDAY. DEEP NORTHERLY WIND COMPONENT
BEHIND THE FRONT WILL ADVECT COOLER AIR INTO THE REGION WITH
TUESDAY AND WEDNESDAY HIGH TEMPERATURES FALLING TO AROUND 5 TO 10
DEGREES BELOW NORMAL MUCH OF THE AREA. CONTINENTAL FLOW
TRAJECTORIES PRECLUDE ANY MOISTURE TRANSPORT BUT STRONG DYNAMICS
ALOFT ASSOCIATED WITH DIFFERENTIAL PVA MAY BE SUFFICIENT TO INDUCE
SOME SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS AND ISOLATED AREAS
OF LIGHT RAIN AND/OR SNOW OVER HUDSPETH COUNTY MONDAY NIGHT AND
TUESDAY.

BY THURSDAY ZONAL FLOW ALOFT WILL EXIST WITH ANOTHER LEE SURFACE
TROUGH TO THE EAST SO EXPECT RESULTANT DEEP WESTERLY FLOW
TO ADVECT WARMER DRY AIR MASS OVER THE BORDERLAND FOR CHRISTMAS
AND FRIDAY. ANOTHER WEAKER COLD FRONT WILL PUSH SOUTHWARD THOUGH
THE CWA FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WILL COOL TEMPERATURES AROUND 5 DEGREES
FOR SUN BOWL SATURDAY. OTHERWISE NEXT WEEKEND LOOKS CONTINUED DRY
WITH WIND SPEEDS MOSTLY LIGHT.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 22/00Z- 23/00Z...
P6SM FEW-SCT150 SCT-BKN250 WITH W TO NW WINDS 10-20G30KTS THRU 02Z
AND AFT 18Z...REMAINING OCCASIONALLY GUSTY ON EASTERN MTN SLOPES.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A GENERAL NORTHWEST FLOW PATTERN WILL KEEP AREA IN A ROLLER COASTER
OF TEMPERATURES FOR THE UPCOMING WEEK. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL
REBOUND A LITTLE MORE FOR MONDAY AHEAD OF A STRONG COLD FRONT WHICH
WILL DROP TEMPERATURES AT LEAST 10 TO 15 DEGREES FOR TUESDAY INTO
WEDNESDAY ALONG WITH SOME MOUNTAIN SNOW SHOWERS. HIGHS WILL REBOUND
AGAIN FOR LATE IN THE WEEK WITH ANOTHER FRONT POSSIBLE NEXT WEEKEND.
WINDS WILL BE OFF AND ON AGAIN BREEZY TO WINDY THROUGH THE WEEK WITH
MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITIES GENERALLY IN THE 20S AND 30S BUT
OCCASIONALLY HIGHER IN THE MOUNTAINS.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 41  65  38  48  29 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           38  62  36  45  26 /   0   0   0  10   0
LAS CRUCES              38  63  35  47  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              37  60  33  44  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              34  46  20  28  14 /   0   0  20  20   0
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   39  62  35  44  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             37  58  31  42  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
DEMING                  36  64  33  47  24 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               36  61  30  48  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      43  65  40  47  31 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               36  65  34  47  21 /   0   0  10  20   0
FORT HANCOCK            39  67  39  49  27 /   0   0   0  10   0
LOMA LINDA              41  59  36  43  28 /   0   0   0  10   0
FABENS                  37  66  36  48  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            38  64  35  47  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          41  63  38  46  30 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           31  63  29  47  20 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   36  65  34  47  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                40  64  38  48  27 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               38  61  35  45  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 39  55  26  36  18 /   0   0  20  30   0
MESCALERO               33  53  24  36  17 /   0   0  20  20   0
TIMBERON                35  53  26  36  17 /   0   0  20  20   0
WINSTON                 35  56  29  39  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
HILLSBORO               39  61  33  43  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
SPACEPORT               34  64  30  46  22 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            33  57  29  40  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
HURLEY                  36  60  32  43  23 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLIFF                   33  62  28  47  20 /   0   0   0   0   0
MULE CREEK              29  59  24  45  16 /   0   0   0   0   0
FAYWOOD                 38  60  33  43  26 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANIMAS                  38  64  33  50  25 /   0   0   0   0   0
HACHITA                 34  63  30  49  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          34  66  32  49  21 /   0   0   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              37  63  33  49  24 /   0   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/26 GRZYWACZ



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