Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 222037
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
237 PM MDT TUE JUL 22 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER HIGH OVER NEW MEXICO WILL DRIFT SLOWLY NORTH OVER COLORADO.
WEAK NORTHEAST FLOW TONIGHT WITH SMALL DISTURBANCES ALOFT SHOULD
ALLOW ONE MORE DAY OF SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS BEFORE TAPERING OFF
FOR MUCH OF THE REST OF THE WEEK. UPPER HIGH SETTLES BACK IN OVER
NEW MEXICO THURSDAY INTO THE WEEK END. THIS SHOULD INHIBIT MOST
POTENTIAL FOR THUNDERSTORMS...THOUGH ISOLATED DAYTIME THUNDERSTORMS
ARE STILL LIKELY FOR THE MOUNTAINS. TEMPERATURES WILL CONTINUE ABOVE
NORMAL...WITH LOWLANDS RANGING FROM ABOUT 100 TO 105 MOST OF THE
WEEK.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO DOMINATE THE WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
FORECAST PERIOD...MOSTLY INHIBITING CONVECTION. IN THE SHORT TERM WE
LOOK TO REMAIN FAIRLY ACTIVE TONIGHT. DEWPOINTS SHOW LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE REMAINS IN PLACE...WITH DEWS IN THE LOWER 50S EAST TO MID
40S WEST. WV IMAGERY SHOWS UPPER HIGH CENTERED OVER SOUTH CENTRAL
NEW MEXICO WITH A DISTURBANCE TEXAS PANHANDLE ROTATING WESTWARD
ACROSS SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO THIS EVENING. THIS SHOULD HELP INITIATE
CONVECTION TONIGHT. SAC MTNS KICKED OFF IN THEIR NORMAL
PATTERN...WITH A FEW STRONG/SEVERE CELLS. ENVIRONMENT CONDUCIVE TO
GUSTY WINDS OF 45-55 MPH TONIGHT. SLOW STORM MOVEMENT WILL ALLOW
HEAVY RAINERS TO CREATE SOME SPOTS OF FLOODING.

UPPER HIGH BASICALLY TAKES UP RESIDENCE OVER NORTHERN NEW MEXICO
WED/THUR AND THEN CENTERED OVER THE ENTIRE STATE THROUGH SATURDAY.
THIS SHOULD END ALL LOWLAND CHANCES OF RAIN AND LIMIT CONVECTION TO
HIGHER TERRAIN AFTN/ERLY EVES. BY SUNDAY AND MONDAY THE UPPER HIGH
WILL RECENTER NEAR THE NRN ARIZ/NEW MEXICO STATE LINE AND BEGIN
ELONGATING NORTHWEST AND SOUTHEAST. NOT A GREAT PATTERN FOR
RAIN...BUT DID ALLOW LOW POPS BACK IN FOR ALL ZONES...AS LIGHT
NORTHERLY FLOW TENDS TO BRING DISTURBANCES DOWN. YDA`S GFS RUN WAS
SHOWING A BACK DOOR FRONT IMPACTING THE EASTERN CWA BY MONDAY BUT
THIS MORNING`S RUN IS MUCH LESS HOPEFUL ON BRINGING THE
MOISTURE/CONVERGENCE INTO THE CWA. LAST NIGHT`S ECMWF ALSO SHOWED
THIS FEATURE MON NIGHT/TUE. IT WILL BE INTERESTING TO SEE TONIGHT`S
ECMWF RUN TO SEE IF THEY ALSO BACK OFF THIS FEATURE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 23/0000Z - 24/0000Z...
WIDESPREAD AREAS OF CEILINGS ABOVE 10,000 FEET AGL THROUGH THE
PERIOD. A FEW AREAS OF MVFR CEILINGS VISIBILITIES AND ISOLATED IFR
VISIBILITIES FROM HEAVY RAINFALL IN SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY
BETWEEN 20Z AND 06Z. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE WIND GUSTS TO 60
MPH...OTHERWISE WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MOSTLY LESS THAN 15 KT THROUGH
THE PERIOD.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOIST UNSTABLE AIR WILL FLOW INTO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO AND FAR WEST
TEXAS ONE MORE DAY WITH AREAS OF THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON AND
THIS EVENING. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS AND WIND GUSTS TO
60 MPH. HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL THEN BRING HOT DRIER WEATHER
WEDNESDAY THROUGH THE WEEKEND WITH ONLY SLIGHT CHANCES OF MAINLY
AFTERNOON AND EARLY EVENING THUNDERSTORMS WITH MOST STORMS FORMING
OVER THE HIGHER MOUNTAINS. HIGH TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND 4 TO
7 DEGREES ABOVE NORMAL THROUGH SUNDAY WITH MINIMUM RELATIVE HUMIDITY
AROUND 15 TO 25 PERCENT EACH DAY. WIND SPEEDS WILL BE MOSTLY LESS
THAN 15 MPH EXCEPT FOR HIGHER GUSTS NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 78  99  77 100  77 /  30   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           74  94  74  95  75 /  20   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              71  97  71  98  72 /  30   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              72  98  72  99  73 /  30   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              53  77  51  78  52 /  40  20  10  10  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   70  96  70  97  71 /  40  10  10   0   0
SILVER CITY             64  87  62  90  64 /  30  20  10  10  10
DEMING                  71  97  71  98  72 /  30   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               70  97  70  97  71 /  20  20  10   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      76  99  76 100  76 /  30   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               69  98  68  99  68 /  30   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            75 101  74 102  74 /  20   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              70  91  68  92  70 /  30   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  75 100  74 101  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            72  98  72  99  73 /  30   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          73  96  73  97  74 /  30   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           67  96  67  97  68 /  30   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   69  97  69 101  70 /  30   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                71  95  71  98  72 /  30   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               71  99  71 100  72 /  30   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 62  84  61  85  62 /  40  20  10  10  10
MESCALERO               59  86  58  87  59 /  40  20  10  10  10
TIMBERON                58  84  57  85  58 /  40  10  10   0  10
WINSTON                 64  89  63  89  64 /  40  20  20  10  10
HILLSBORO               71  92  69  93  71 /  40  20  10  10  10
SPACEPORT               70  96  70  97  71 /  40   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            59  91  58  91  58 /  40  20  20  20  10
HURLEY                  64  89  62  94  64 /  40  20  10  10  10
CLIFF                   62  96  63  96  62 /  30  20  20  10  20
MULE CREEK              60  94  59  94  59 /  20  20  20  10  10
FAYWOOD                 68  92  66  93  68 /  40  20  10  10  20
ANIMAS                  72  96  73  97  74 /  20  20  10   0   0
HACHITA                 69  96  69  96  70 /  30  10   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          72  97  72  98  73 /  30  20   0   0   0
CLOVERDALE              66  91  64  92  66 /  20  20  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/ROGASH







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