Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 221136
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
436 AM MST Wed Feb 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
We will see near record high temperatures today, but we will be a
little cooler and very windy on Thursday. Friday and Saturday will
be our coolest days of the week, but highs will still be a few
degrees above normal. The start of next week will be warm and
sunny, but winds return next Tuesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
One more nice day before we have a gusty, dusty kind of day on
Thursday. Currently an upper level ridge was drifting off to our
east and in its place a dry and warm zonal flow was settling over
New Mexico. We could see some near record and even record high
temperatures today. On Thursday though, an upper level trough
will move across southern Colorado. This system is too far north
to give us any precipitation chances, but it will help generate
some very strong winds. Right now it looks like we will see
advisory level winds (25 to 35 mph) Thursday afternoon and a few
spots east of area mountains may see warning level winds (35 to 45
mph) late Thursday night into Friday morning.

By Friday afternoon the trough will be to our east and some cooler
air will be filtering into the region. So highs on Friday will be
near normal and highs on Saturday will be a degree or two above
normal. By Sunday we will have well above normal temperatures as
we begin to transition to a southwest flow as the next upper
level storm system begins to move in our direction. With the
southwest flow on Sunday we could see some breezy winds (15 to 25
mph) in the afternoon. By Monday as the next upper level system
moves a little closer we could see some windy (20 to 30 mph)
conditions. Then as the trough moves across New Mexico on Tuesday
we could see very windy conditions (30 to 40 mph) Tuesday
afternoon. In addition to the strong winds we will see a slight
chance for precipitation on Tuesday, mainly in area mountains,
but usually with strong winds events we don`t much precipitation.
Looks like the windy season may be off to a bit of an early start.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 22/12Z-23/12Z
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. We will start the
day with unlimited ceilings, but by late afternoon we will see
high clouds on the increase and will have ceilings of BKN250. Like
yesterday surface winds will be from the west, but unlike
yesterday we will see the surface winds starting to increase. This
afternoon we will see winds of 26010kt but by early Thursday
morning they will increase a bit to 25015kt. Very strong winds and
some blowing dust is expected Thursday afternoon.



&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Fire weather concerns increase starting tomorrow. For today we
will see very warm conditions, with min RH`s in the teens, but
winds will stay below 15 mph. On Thursday an approaching upper
level storm system will bring some high clouds and very strong
winds to the area. With min RH`s in the low to mid teens, most
lowland locations WILL SEE Red Flag conditions for several hours
on Thursday afternoon. A fire weather watch for Thursday is
currently in effect. Very dry air will punch in behind this storm
system so min RH`s will drop to near 10% in the lowlands for
Friday, Saturday and Sunday, but winds will stay a little below
critical levels so Red Flag conditions are NOT expected for those
days. We will see another windy day next Tuesday, but by then some
slightly high moisture will have worked into the area so again
right now Red Flag conditions are NOT expected for the first of
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 81  54  73  45 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           80  53  74  45 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              79  48  68  39 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              78  52  69  40 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              58  40  45  26 /   0   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   78  50  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             71  44  56  33 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  79  47  67  36 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               77  43  64  34 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      80  56  71  46 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               82  46  75  39 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            85  51  78  45 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              75  53  67  43 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  82  51  75  44 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            80  51  71  42 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          79  55  69  44 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           79  46  68  36 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   79  50  67  39 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                81  51  70  40 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               79  53  71  41 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 73  46  61  35 /   0   0   0   0
Mescalero               68  44  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
Timberon                66  41  56  32 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 72  40  59  30 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               77  45  64  35 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               77  47  66  36 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            71  35  55  26 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  74  43  60  32 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   75  37  61  29 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              71  41  56  31 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 75  44  62  34 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  80  46  67  33 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 80  45  68  34 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          81  47  69  37 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              76  46  63  36 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for NMZ111-112.

TX...Fire Weather Watch from Thursday morning through Thursday
     evening for TXZ055-056.

&&

$$

15/15



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.