Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 231014
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
414 AM MDT Tue May 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Slightly cooler air will filter into the area today, but it won`t
last long as our high temperatures for Wednesday and Thursday will
be 5 degrees above normal. Also on Thursday and continuing into
Friday will be a return of strong winds. The start of the holiday
weekend will be great with plenty of sun, not much wind and warm
temperatures, but by late Sunday into Monday moisture and rain
chances will return to our forecast.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A weak cold front was trying to make its way across the eastern
parts of the area this morning. This will help shave a few degrees
off our afternoon highs, but most of the moisture will stay just
to our east. I have gone ahead and kept a slight chance for
thunderstorms in the Sacramento Mountains and the eastern part of
Hudspeth County, but the rest of will stay nice and dry. On
Wednesday an area of upper level high pressure will build across
New Mexico. This will keep our skies clear, but will jump our
afternoon temperatures around 5 degrees above average. By
Thursday and into Friday the upper level ridge will weaken as a
couple of short wave troughs moves across the intermountain west.
These short waves will help tighten our surface pressure gradient
so that we will approach wind advisory conditions (25 to 35 mph)
on Thursday and again on Friday. Previous models did not have as
strong of winds so I didn`t think blowing dust would be much of a
problem, but if the current solutions hold and with our very warm
conditions, we may see some wide spread blowing dust, especially
on Thursday. For the weekend we will see some beautiful weather,
with calmer conditions, lots of sun and temperatures running a
degree or two above average. By late on Sunday we will see a surge
of moisture move back into the area and that will return our
thunderstorms chances to the forecast for the start of next week.
Hopefully it will hold off so it doesn`t ruin people`s outdoor
plans on Monday, but then again, we really do need the moisture.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 23/12Z-24/12Z
VFR conditions expected for the next 24 hours. There is a slight
chance for thunderstorms in eastern Hudspeth and Otero counties,
but most of us will see unlimited ceilings with surface winds from
the north this morning then coming around to the west by the
afternoon.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
A couple of critical fire weather days are coming by the end of
the week, but first we will have a couple of pleasant days. A weak
cold front will move across the area today which will swing our
winds around to the north and shave a few degrees off our high
temperatures. It won`t last long as an upper level ridge will
build across New Mexico on Wednesday to give us very warm
temperatures, but again winds will stay below critical levels. But
by Thursday and again on Friday we will see strong surface winds
develop. Combine those winds with our single digit RH`s and we
will see Red Flag conditions on both Thursday and Friday
afternoons. We will see calmer, but continued very dry conditions
for both Saturday and Sunday. Late on Sunday moisture will begin
to move back into the area and we will see a chance for rain on
both Monday and Tuesday. Min RH`s will run in the single digits to
near 10% today through the coming weekend, but by the start of
next week we will see min RH`s climb a little above 15% in the
lowlands and above 30% in the mountains.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 88  61  94  69 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           79  56  90  65 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              90  57  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              84  55  89  63 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              62  43  68  51 /  10   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   88  57  92  63 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             85  53  85  56 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  92  56  93  61 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               92  58  93  60 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      87  62  92  69 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               78  53  92  62 /  10   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            87  60  95  67 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              80  56  87  65 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  88  61  94  67 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            90  59  93  66 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          87  60  91  66 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           88  55  92  61 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   92  56  94  61 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                93  59  94  64 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               85  58  91  65 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 69  45  78  55 /  20   0   0   0
Mescalero               73  45  76  54 /  10   0   0   0
Timberon                71  46  76  54 /  10   0   0   0
Winston                 83  47  85  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               87  53  90  60 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               90  54  92  60 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            86  46  84  50 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  86  51  87  55 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   92  53  91  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              90  56  88  57 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 89  53  88  58 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  94  58  94  60 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 93  56  93  59 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          94  57  94  60 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              90  57  90  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

15/15



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.