Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 262122
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
322 PM MDT Mon Jun 26 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A gradual drying of the area continues over the next several days.
Low level moisture will persist tonight for scattered
thunderstorms, but drying will begin on Tuesday and Wednesday,
with just isolated thunderstorms possible. By Thursday and Friday
the drying trend peaks with little or no chance of rain in any
area. Temperatures will warm back above normal by Wednesday, and
most lowland areas will be back in the triple digit heat. By
Saturday and Sunday, some moisture moves back in for a slight
chance of thunderstorms both days.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper high persists over the northern Baja, while upper low
continues to churn over British Columbia. At the surface plenty of
moisture persists so expect scattered thunderstorms again
tonight. Models continue to show plenty of MUCAPE and low LIs for
convection. Good directional shear should be able to allow long
duration of some updrafts, so mod/large hail is possible. PWs of
around 1.1 - 1.2 inches also suggest some heavy rain/local
flooding.

For Tuesday through Friday...Baja high begins shifting further
west and a bit further south while British Columbia low drifts
east with corresponding trough dropping south of the low over the
central Rockies. This will bring main polar flow down to New
Mexico and usher in drier period. Dewpoints Tuesday will be mostly
in the 50s to start the day, but low level west flow will develop
out west and begin moving drier air in. Chance of rain may be
limited to areas east of the Rio Grande Valley as dewpoints fall
into the 30s out west by afternoon. Drying continues on Wednesday,
with dewpoints in the 30s all areas, with even 20s up north. No
POPs in for Wed-Fri period-been awhile since we could say that.
With the drying, temperatures will warm up. Looks like another
stretch of triple digit temps for the lowlands, though not as warm
as the last stretch that ended a few days ago.

Saturday and Sunday...Models showing a bit of moisture increase as
upper flow weakens with ridge of high pressure building back east
over northern Mexico. This will allow some limited moisture at mid
levels (600mb) to spread north over the area under the weak upper
flow. GFS shows PWs back to one inch over southern zones, slightly
less to the north, with moderate MUCAPE values. Don`t have much
confidence yet in this moisture return but will put in low POPs
for both days.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 27/00Z-28/00Z... P6SM SCT070-090 SCT-BKN150-200
through much of the period.  Expect cluster of VRB25G40KT 1-3SM TSRA
BKN020-040 to be ongoing over northern and eastern areas but
gradually decreasing in intensity and coverage through 06Z. Isolated
to widely scattered storms then expected until after 18Z mainly
east of Rio Grande and Gila region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Thunderstorm coverage will be a little less today than over the
weekend with a continued decrease on Tuesday. Best chances will be
over mountains and areas east of Rio Grande.  Winds will start to
shift around to the west to southwest tomorrow which will begin the
drying out which will take full effect for the later half of the
week when relative humidities will be back to around 10 percent.
Winds will be on the increase Wednesday and Thursday which could
come close to 20 mph.  With recent rains, fuels may need a little
more time to dry out to warrant any warnings. Some thunderstorm
chances will return for the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 71  96  73 100 /  30  20  10   0
Sierra Blanca           66  91  69  98 /  30  20  20   0
Las Cruces              65  96  66  98 /  30  10  10   0
Alamogordo              64  94  66  98 /  30  20  20   0
Cloudcroft              48  74  51  78 /  30  30  20   0
Truth or Consequences   69  95  66  98 /  40  20  10   0
Silver City             61  94  61  93 /  40  20   0   0
Deming                  67  96  64  99 /  40   0   0   0
Lordsburg               63  97  65  98 /  40   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      70  95  72  98 /  30  20  10   0
Dell City               61  94  66 101 /  30  20  20   0
Fort Hancock            67  97  71 100 /  40  20  20   0
Loma Linda              66  93  69  97 /  40  20  20   0
Fabens                  66  96  71 100 /  30  20  10   0
Santa Teresa            68  95  69  99 /  30  10  10   0
White Sands HQ          72  94  70  98 /  30  20  20   0
Jornada Range           62  95  64  98 /  30  20  20   0
Hatch                   64  95  64 100 /  30  10  10   0
Columbus                67  96  68 100 /  40   0   0   0
Orogrande               69  95  70  99 /  30  20  20   0
Mayhill                 53  83  57  88 /  40  30  20   0
Mescalero               48  85  56  88 /  30  30  20   0
Timberon                49  83  56  87 /  40  30  20   0
Winston                 55  90  58  92 /  40  20  10   0
Hillsboro               60  95  61  96 /  40  10  10   0
Spaceport               59  96  63  98 /  30  20  20   0
Lake Roberts            50  91  54  91 /  40  20   0   0
Hurley                  62  93  60  95 /  40   0   0   0
Cliff                   58  97  58  97 /  40   0   0   0
Mule Creek              59  96  59  95 /  40   0   0   0
Faywood                 59  96  60  95 /  40   0   0   0
Animas                  67  98  65  99 /  30   0   0   0
Hachita                 64  98  64  99 /  30   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          69  96  66  97 /  30   0   0   0
Cloverdale              63  96  63  95 /  30   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Hefner/Grzywacz



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