Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 172100
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
200 PM MST Sun Dec 17 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level low pressure system will move slowly eastward
across New Mexico and west Texas tonight and Monday. This
disturbance will bring widespread rain showers across the lower
elevations with moderate to heavy snow possible over the higher
mountains. Westerly winds will result in mostly dry weather with
seasonably mild temperatures Tuesday through Thursday. A weak
cold front will cause cooler but still mostly dry weather next
Friday with continued dry weather and near normal temperatures
next weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper level low prssure system in southerly branch of split flow
was centered near the southern Arizona-Mexico border early this
afternoon with system expected to drift very slowly to the
northeast. The low will enter southwestern New Mexico by early
Monday afternoon and continued its eastward drift across southern
New Mexico and west Texas Monday night and early Tuesday.

Enhanced threat of prcipitation will persist into tonight as
differential PVA fields indicate continued strong upward dynamic
forcing. In addition frontogenetic forcing will occur around 700
to 500 mb. Vertical temperature profiles continue to show mostly
snow will fall above 7000 feet with possible rain snow mix
between 6000 and 7000 feet. Low levels should remain mostly above
freezing as no Canadian cold front to the north/east will push
into the CWA. Expect total snow amounts generally around 4 to 8
inches higher elevations of the Gilas and Sacramentos with up to
10 inches very isolated locations. The precipitation will diminish
on Monday as moisture inflow and dynamics weaken.

By Tuesday upper low/trough will be east of the CWA with zonal
flow aloft and westerly winds at low levels bring dry wewther with
temperatures around normal. Another upper low will then move
eastward across Colorado Thursday with trailing trough and an
attendant Pacific cold front swinging across New Mexico and west
Texas late Thursday afternoon and Thursday night. This scenario
may produce breezy to marginally windy conditions on Thursday as
moderate lee cyclogenesis occurs over northeastern New Mexico.
However continental trajectories suggest little or no rain or
mountain snows will occur as air mass will be rather dry. Cold
frontal passage will also result in Friday high temperatures
cooling around 10 to 15 degrees or around 5 degrees below normal.

Zonal flow/westerly winds will return to produce more dry weather
and near normal temperatures Saturday and Sunday. Longer range
guidance showing significant temporal and spatial inconsistencies
with respect to temperatures Christmas day with the ECMWF moving
an Arctic cold front through the CWA and thus having considerably
colder temperatures than the GFS. That being said both models
keeping the region almost completely dry Christmas day so threat
of a white Christmas looks rather low at this time.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 18/00Z-19/00Z...
Upper low remains thru pd over the region. Conditions will be mostly
in the VFR category, except near rain and snow showers where MVFR to
IFR conds are possible, especially overnight. Most of the activity
should diminish after 15Z. Generally light and variable winds thru
20Z, then W winds between 5 to 15 mph.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Upper low remains in the area through Tuesday. Light rain showers in
the lowlands and snow showers in the mountains are expected to
continue through this period. Min RH values also continue between
the 50s and upper 30s. For the rest of the week, quiet weather comes
back. Above normal temperatures (upper 50s and lower 60s) and dry
air (Min RHs in the lower 30s and upper 20s) set in the region. The
approach of another upper low to the north brings stronger winds on
Thursday, which gives the best ventilation rates of the week.
Towards the end of the week and early next week a strong cold front
could be pushing through with cold temps and mostly dry air.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 38  55  36  57 /  70  30  10   0
Sierra Blanca           41  57  37  56 /  40  20  20   0
Las Cruces              34  54  32  55 /  60  30  10   0
Alamogordo              34  53  31  53 /  60  30  10   0
Cloudcroft              26  35  24  40 /  70  40  20   0
Truth or Consequences   33  51  30  54 /  60  30  10   0
Silver City             32  46  29  51 /  60  40  10   0
Deming                  36  54  30  56 /  60  30  10   0
Lordsburg               36  54  32  55 /  50  20  10   0
West El Paso Metro      38  55  37  55 /  70  30  10   0
Dell City               40  59  33  58 /  50  20  20   0
Fort Hancock            43  58  37  59 /  50  30  10   0
Loma Linda              37  51  36  52 /  70  30  10   0
Fabens                  37  56  35  57 /  70  30  10   0
Santa Teresa            34  54  32  56 /  70  30  10   0
White Sands HQ          35  54  33  55 /  60  30  10   0
Jornada Range           34  54  31  55 /  60  30  10   0
Hatch                   35  55  32  55 /  60  30  10   0
Columbus                35  55  33  57 /  60  30  10   0
Orogrande               35  55  34  55 /  60  30  10   0
Mayhill                 28  42  28  47 /  70  40  20   0
Mescalero               25  42  26  47 /  70  40  20   0
Timberon                29  42  27  46 /  70  40  20   0
Winston                 21  42  18  49 /  70  40  10   0
Hillsboro               33  50  29  52 /  60  40  10   0
Spaceport               34  52  31  54 /  60  30  10   0
Lake Roberts            25  43  20  50 /  70  40  10   0
Hurley                  33  49  26  53 /  60  30  10   0
Cliff                   35  52  25  55 /  50  40  10   0
Mule Creek              34  49  24  53 /  50  40  10   0
Faywood                 32  50  30  53 /  60  40  10   0
Animas                  36  54  31  57 /  50  20  10   0
Hachita                 36  53  31  56 /  60  30  10   0
Antelope Wells          36  53  31  56 /  60  20  10   0
Cloverdale              38  50  33  54 /  60  20  10   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...Winter Weather Advisory until 11 AM MST Monday for NMZ402-
     414>416.

TX...None.
&&

$$

05 Rogash/29 Crespo


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