Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 272132
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
332 PM MDT THU AUG 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER HIGH WILL REMAIN OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST THROUGH THE
WEEKEND AND INTO MUCH OF NEXT WEEK. THIS WILL ALLOW SCATTERED
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO CONTINUE EACH DAY. MINOR FLOOD
POTENTIAL CONTINUES TONIGHT AND FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN
SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
RELATIVELY STAGNANT BUT SOMEWHAT ACTIVE PATTERN THROUGH THE ENTIRE
FORECAST PERIOD. UPPER HIGH NOW OVER NORTHERN MEXICO/NEW MEXICO
WILL WAFFLE EVER SO SLIGHTLY THROUGH THE PERIOD...OVER SE ARIZONA
BY SATURDAY...AND THEN BACK OVER NEW MEXICO BY MONDAY AND TUESDAY.
HIGH DOES GET STRETCHED NORTHEAST-SOUTHWEST BY THE END OF THE WEEK
AS IT GETS SQUEEZED BETWEEN INCOMING PACIFIC TROUGH TO THE WEST
AND RETROGRADING LOW TO THE EAST.

BOTTOM LINE FOR US IS SLIGHT CHANCES EACH DAY FOR
THUNDERSTORMS...AS THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT FEATURE TO IMPORT NOR
SCOUR OUT EXISTING MOISTURE. FOR TONIGHT AND FRIDAY PW`S WILL
REMAIN FAIRLY UNIFORM AT AROUND 1.2 INCHES. SOME STORMS COULD
CAUSE HEAVY RAIN AND MINOR FLOODING. DCAPES OF 800-1200 J/KG AND
DEW POINT DEPRESSIONS OF AROUND 45 DEG STILL SHOW WIND GUST
POTENTIAL TO NEAR SEVERE THIS EVENING. SOME MINOR FLOODING
POTENTIAL AGAIN FRIDAY. TROUGH SPILLING OVER THE HIGH OUT OF THE
CENTRAL ROCKIES COULD ENHANCE THE ACTIVITY SOMEWHAT ON FRIDAY.

SATURDAY AND SUNDAY...PW`S DECREASE SOME AND BECOME ALIGNED MORE
WEST TO EAST (WETTEST TO DRIEST)...AS UPPER TROUGH NOW SOUTH OF
THE AREA. PERHAPS HIER POPS WEST AND LOWER POPS EAST DUE TO THIS.

MONDAY THROUGH THURSDAY...AS UPPER RIDGE STRETCHES OUT NORTHEAST-
SOUTHWEST...MID LEVEL FLOW BECOMES MORE SOUTHERLY AND SOME
INCREASE IN MOISTURE BECAUSE OF THAT. FOR THIS PERIOD THE PW`S
BECOME MORE UNIFORM AGAIN...WITH GFS INCREASING PW`S BACK TO
1.3-1.4 INCH RANGE (EXCEPT THE FAR NORTH). FOR NOW KEPT MORE
GENERIC SCATTERED MOUNTAIN POPS/ISOLATED LOWLAND POPS...BUT MAY
NEED TO UP THOSE A BIT WITH SUBSEQUENT FCST PACKAGES.

LONG TERM (NEXT WEEKEND)...GFS SHOWS RETROGRADING LOW OVER THE
LOWER MISSISSIPPI VALLEY BECOMING A BLOCKING LOW. PACIFIC TROUGH
TRIES TO BRING DRY SOUTHWEST FLOW INTO THE AREA BUT CAN`T QUITE
SUCCEED. ECMWF KEEPS RETROGRADED LOW WEAKER AND DAMPS IT OUT.
HOWEVER UPPER RIDGE OVER US STRENGTHENS OVER US...BASICALLY WITH
SAME EFFECT OF KEEPING THE DRY SOUTHWESTERLIES TO OUR WEST.
ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS LIKELY TO CONTINUE.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/00Z-29/00Z.
P6SM SCT070-090 SCT-BKN150-200 THRU MUCH OF PD. SCT MTN AND ISOLD
LOWLAND 1-3SM TSRA BKN040-060 WITH WIND GUSTS TO 40KTS MAINLY THRU
06Z AND AFT 18Z. W TO NW WINDS AOB 12KTS SHIFTING MORE TO THE NW TO
N BY 15Z.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER... FIRE WEATHER CONCERNS WILL CONTINUE TO BE MINIMAL
AS MOISTURE WILL REMAIN TRAPPED UNDER UPPER HIGH WHICH WILL MOVE
VERY LITTLE OVER THE NEXT WEEK. EXPECT SCATTERED MOUNTAIN AND
ISOLATED LOWLAND STORMS TO BE THE NORM EACH DAY INTO EARLY NEXT
WEEK. A WEAK BOUNDARY WILL SHIFT WINDS TO THE EAST FRIDAY AND BRING
THE BEST CHANCE FOR WIDESPREAD PRECIPITATION TO THE AREA. THE
WEEKEND WILL HAVE THE BEST LOWLAND CHANCES WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE
BEFORE UPPER RIDGE STARTS TO SHIFT EAST AND BRINGS THE MOISTURE
PLUME ACROSS THE ENTIRE AREA FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK. MINIMUM RELATIVE
HUMIDITIES WILL REMAIN IN THE 20 TO 30 PERCENT RANGE LOWLANDS AND 30
TO 45 PERCENT IN THE MOUNTAINS.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 73  97  74  96 /  20  20  30  20
SIERRA BLANCA           67  94  69  94 /  20  20  30  20
LAS CRUCES              68  95  68  94 /  20  20  30  20
ALAMOGORDO              67  94  69  94 /  20  30  50  30
CLOUDCROFT              51  72  49  72 /  30  60  50  40
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   65  92  68  92 /  20  30  30  30
SILVER CITY             63  87  64  86 /  30  40  40  40
DEMING                  66  95  69  95 /  30  20  30  20
LORDSBURG               66  94  69  95 /  30  20  30  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      72  97  74  96 /  20  20  30  20
DELL CITY               65  98  68  96 /  20  20  30  20
FORT HANCOCK            68  97  71  97 /  20  20  30  20
LOMA LINDA              68  92  69  92 /  20  20  30  20
FABENS                  70  97  71  97 /  20  20  30  20
SANTA TERESA            70  96  71  95 /  20  20  30  20
WHITE SANDS HQ          69  94  70  93 /  20  20  30  20
JORNADA RANGE           63  94  69  94 /  20  20  30  20
HATCH                   66  95  68  95 /  20  20  30  20
COLUMBUS                67  95  69  96 /  30  20  30  20
OROGRANDE               70  94  70  94 /  20  20  40  20
MAYHILL                 55  80  55  79 /  30  60  50  40
MESCALERO               54  81  56  81 /  30  50  50  40
TIMBERON                53  80  57  80 /  30  50  50  40
WINSTON                 60  83  60  83 /  40  50  50  40
HILLSBORO               65  92  65  92 /  30  30  40  30
SPACEPORT               65  92  68  93 /  20  20  30  20
LAKE ROBERTS            59  86  57  86 /  40  40  50  50
HURLEY                  63  89  65  89 /  30  30  40  40
CLIFF                   62  91  62  91 /  30  30  40  30
MULE CREEK              59  89  59  90 /  30  30  40  40
FAYWOOD                 62  90  66  90 /  30  30  40  30
ANIMAS                  66  93  69  95 /  30  20  30  30
HACHITA                 64  94  68  95 /  30  20  30  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          64  90  66  92 /  30  20  30  30
CLOVERDALE              65  88  67  88 /  30  20  30  40

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

HEFNER/GRZYWACZ


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