Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
000
FXUS64 KEPZ 191959
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
159 PM MDT Thu Oct 19 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
An upper level disturbance over Arizona will move across New
Mexico this evening, bringing scattered thunderstorms to the area
this evening and overnight. A few storms may be strong to severe
with hail and strong winds. Warm, dry, and breezy conditions will
prevail on Friday, with temperatures slowly cooling off Saturday
and Sunday. Temperatures will come up a little bit on Monday, but
a backdoor cold front will bring temperatures back down to near
normal Tuesday and Wednesday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
One vigorous shortwave tough is moving out towards the NM Eastern
Plains/TX Panhandle, another over Arizona is incoming, and in-
between, a weak little vort lobe is stretched out over the Black
Range and parts of the Gila, and is helping focus some scattered
thunderstorms over the Black Range westward to the Upper Mimbres
Valley. SE flow of around 10 knots at the Hillsboro and Winston
mesonet stations suggests upslope flow is also a factor. RAP13
analysis shows significant CIN over central Sierra County, and
these storms have not had much luck moving east off the higher
terrain just yet. HRRR suggests these storms will slowly drift
east over the next few hours, but additional development over
Grant County seems likely as well.

Elsewhere, clearing skies over much of southern NM is allowing
instability to slowly increase ahead of the incoming shortwave
trough over Arizona. Various mesoscale models indicate late
afternoon storms developing over SW NM in the 21-00z time frame,
moving quickly to the east and reaching the Rio Grande Valley in
the evening, then Otero/Hudspeth Counties later in the evening
(mostly before midnight). Moderate instability, low wet bulb zero
heights, and steep mid-level lapse rates indicate the potential
for large hail, and high LCL with inverted-V profile suggests
strong wind potential as well. With the exception of this
terrain-anchored/back-building early activity in the Gila, storm
motion with the later convection should mitigate flash flood risk.

Could see some patchy fog in the Gila and Sacramento Mountains in
the wake of thunderstorms late tonight into early tomorrow
morning. Fog in the Gila will likely favor valleys that receive
precip (best candidates being the Upper Gila, Sapillo Creek, and
Upper Mimbres).

Friday looks to stay dry as zonal flow takes over, and a deeper
trough swings across the northern and central Rockies. Lee
troughing will promote breezy SW winds and warmer temperatures
(mid/upper-80s lowlands, a solid 10 degrees above climo).

Shortwave trough riding the base of the deeper trough to the north
will move across northern NM early Sat, dragging a weak Pacific
front in its wake. Winds will shift to the west Saturday, then NW
on Sunday, bringing cooler temperatures (at or slightly below
normal) back into the area.

Dry conditions will persist into next week, with a backdoor cold
front bringing cooler temperatures back again Tuesday and
Wednesday.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 20/00Z-21/00Z...
Scattered to numerous VRB25G45KT 1-3SM TSRA BKN040-060 will be
ongoing at beginning of period, mainly east of divide with greatest
coverage over Sacramento Mts.  Storms will progress eastward and out
of area by 12Z. Otherwise expect SCT-BKN080-100 BKN150-200 through
12Z then skies becoming FEW-SCT100-120. Winds will be SE to NE AOB
12KTS except near storms east of divide with generally W to SW winds
west of divide through 15Z.  After 15Z winds shift around to the W
to SW at 10-20G30KTS across region.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Showers and thunderstorms expected through the night, especially
eastern zones as upper disturbance moves through. Some storms may
become strong to severe with hail and strong winds.  On back side of
disturbance, winds will be shifting around to the west to southwest
at 10-20 mph and bring in much drier air through early next week.
Minimum relative humidities will be falling back into the teens by
Saturday with gusty winds which could bring some areas close to
critical conditions. Near to slightly above average temperatures
will continue next week with lighter winds and dry conditions. Vent
rates will be very good to excellent next couple of days before
falling off into the poor to fair categories Sunday and Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 61  87  62  81 /  50   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           57  85  58  80 /  40   0   0   0
Las Cruces              53  84  53  78 /  50   0   0   0
Alamogordo              55  81  54  78 /  80   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              42  62  41  57 /  80   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   56  81  53  76 /  60   0   0   0
Silver City             48  75  46  70 /  30   0   0   0
Deming                  52  84  50  79 /  30   0   0   0
Lordsburg               52  83  49  76 /  20   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      62  84  60  78 /  40   0   0   0
Dell City               55  88  56  84 /  50   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            59  89  60  84 /  40   0   0   0
Loma Linda              56  81  57  75 /  50   0   0   0
Fabens                  56  88  58  82 /  40   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            59  85  59  79 /  40   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          58  82  57  78 /  60   0   0   0
Jornada Range           54  81  50  77 /  70   0   0   0
Hatch                   53  84  53  79 /  60   0   0   0
Columbus                54  85  54  79 /  30   0   0   0
Orogrande               57  83  56  79 /  70   0   0   0
Mayhill                 46  70  47  66 /  80   0   0   0
Mescalero               45  71  45  67 /  80   0   0   0
Timberon                43  68  44  64 /  80   0   0   0
Winston                 40  73  37  69 /  50   0   0   0
Hillsboro               50  80  48  76 /  40   0   0   0
Spaceport               50  82  50  78 /  70   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            38  75  34  73 /  30   0   0   0
Hurley                  44  78  44  72 /  30   0   0   0
Cliff                   41  80  36  77 /  30   0   0   0
Mule Creek              40  77  38  75 /  20   0   0   0
Faywood                 47  80  47  75 /  30   0   0   0
Animas                  54  86  51  79 /  10   0   0   0
Hachita                 50  85  49  80 /  20   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          54  85  52  81 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              53  81  51  77 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

25-Hardiman / 26-Grzywacz



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.