Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 072106
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
206 PM MST Wed Dec 7 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front will push westward through the region overnight
tonight bringing with it much colder air and gusty east winds.
There will also be a few light rain or snow showers east of EL
Paso tonight as the colder air rushes in. However precip amounts
will be minimal. High temperatures will drop by 10 to 15 degrees
across the area for Thursday before moderating back to near normal
by the start of the weekend.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
We continue to find ourselves located at the base of a broad
trough that stretches across much of the continental United
States. The circulation associated with this trough has dislodged
a very cold and dense air mass from it`s source region over
western Canada and is directing the core of the colder air over
the northern and central plains this afternoon. While this cold
air will generally get pushed eastward, the western edge of this
dense cold air mass is piling up along the east slopes of the
Rockies and working it`s way southward. The leading edge of the
colder air had already pushed about half way down the eastern
plains of New Mexico by early this afternoon. Models indicate that
the cold front will reach the east slopes of the Sacramento
mountains around sunset and push westward past the Rio Grande
shortly after midnight.

Gusty east winds, especially along west facing slopes, and
sharply colder conditions will follow the front through the region
late tonight and early Thursday. In general this will be a dry
frontal passage with a couple of exceptions. Some light precip is
expected across parts of El Paso and Hudspeth county this evening
and tonight due to a weak upper disturbance. As temps fall behind
the front, rain may mix with or change to snow in a few locations
by morning. QPF amounts of only a few hundredths of an inch are
expected, so no major travel problems are expected. In addition
upslope flow and rapid cooling will result in the possibility of
some freezing fog across the Sacramento mountains overnight. There
may also be a few light snow showers developing overnight and
early Thursday over the east slopes of the Sacramentos.

Model forecast soundings indicate that the cold air mass will be
rather shallow across most of the CWA ranging from around 5000
feet in depth across eastern Otero and Hudspeth counties to no
more than a couple of thousand feet deep west of the Rio Grande.
As such the flow from about 700 mb and above looks to maintain a
westerly component. So while we will be noticeably colder Thursday
with highs some 10 to 15 degrees colder than today, the cold air
will not stick around long. Moderating temps are expected Friday
with readings back to or above normal by the weekend.

Beyond the weekend only minor temp fluctuations are expected with an
extended period of dry weather taking shape as the flow pattern
will remain mostly zonal with only low amplitude waves passing
well north of the Borderland.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 08/00Z-09/00Z...
VFR conds thru period BKN130-BKN050. Back door cold front will
strengthen wind conds and lower the current ceilings overnight.
Expect west to northwest winds btwn 10 to 15 kts thru 09z, then
becoming easterly btwn 15 to 25 kts with gusts up to 30 kts.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Backdoor cold front will pass across our area overnight. Wind
conditions with the front are expected to deteriorate in the early
morning hours. Wind speeds will be in the 20 to 30 mph range in the
eastern zones. Expect stronger wind gusts in the western slopes of
the area mountains. RH values will be at their peak through the
weekend with values in the upper 30`s to lower 40`s. For the rest of
the week, RH`s will be in the upper 20`s and lower 30`s. There is
only a very slight chance for precipitation with this system in the
eastern zones of our forecast area. After this system moves away,
dry and warm weather will dominate the region as an almost west to
east flow develops through the rest of the period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 35  47  29  53 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           38  41  27  51 /  20  10   0   0
Las Cruces              35  47  27  51 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              33  47  25  50 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              21  25  20  36 /  10   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   30  46  28  52 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             32  50  24  50 /   0   0   0   0
Deming                  34  50  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               31  53  21  51 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      38  47  33  53 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               32  38  28  50 /  20   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            34  49  28  57 /  10   0   0   0
Loma Linda              31  37  25  46 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  34  47  26  56 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            35  48  27  52 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          38  45  31  49 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           24  46  20  53 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   34  46  30  52 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                37  53  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               34  44  26  50 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 15  35  16  51 /  10  10   0   0
Mescalero               22  39  18  46 /  10   0   0   0
Timberon                22  33  17  41 /   0   0   0   0
Winston                 22  47  19  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hillsboro               27  48  24  54 /   0   0   0   0
Spaceport               29  43  29  51 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            18  52  15  52 /   0   0   0   0
Hurley                  28  49  22  49 /   0   0   0   0
Cliff                   24  54  19  55 /   0   0   0   0
Mule Creek              20  54  19  55 /   0   0   0   0
Faywood                 29  50  26  53 /   0   0   0   0
Animas                  30  57  23  55 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 30  55  19  53 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          32  54  23  53 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              35  54  26  57 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Laney/Crespo


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