Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 272101
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
201 PM MST FRI FEB 27 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
WESTERLY WINDS WILL BRING WARMER WEATHER TO SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO
AND WEST THIS COMING WEEKEND AND MONDAY BEFORE ANOTHER COLD FRONT
BRINGS COOLER TEMPERATURES LATER NEXT WEEK. THERE WILL ALSO BE A
FEW LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS AND CHANCES FOR HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOW
SHOWERS AS A DEEP LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM APPROACHES THE BORDERLAND
FROM THE WEST.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
EAST WINDS ARE SUSTAINING INFLOW OF COOLER AIR TODAY WITH
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES WELL BELOW NORMAL. AN UPPER WAVE/VORTICITY
MAX WILL MEANWHILE MOVE TO THE SOUTHEAST ACROSS THE CWA TONIGHT
AND PRODUCE A FEW SNOW SHOWERS ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.

MORE COMPLEX SITUATION EVOLVES THROUGH THE WEEKEND. ON SATURDAY
STRONGLY POSITIVELY TILTED UPPER WAVE WILL DRIFT SLOWLY SOUTHWARD
THROUGH THE GREAT BASIN WHICH WILL CAUSE STRENGTHENING MID AND
UPPER LEVEL ZONAL FLOW ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES. ASSOCIATED
DEEP WESTERLY FLOW WILL ADVECT WARMER AIR BACK INTO SOUTHERN NEW
MEXICO/WEST TEXAS TOMORROW WITH HIGH TEMPERATURES CLIMBING A
LITTLE ABOVE NORMAL. BY SUNDAY AN UPPER LOW WILL HAVE DEVELOPED
OVER CENTRAL CALIFORNIA WITH FLOW BECOMING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY
ACROSS THE CWA. THIS WILL SUSTAIN INFLOW OF WARMER AIR WITH
TEMPERATURES REMAINING ABOVE NORMAL INTO MONDAY. HOWEVER BACKING
MORE SOUTHERLY FLOW WILL ALSO BE FAVORABLE FOR SUSTAINED
ADVECTION OF MOISTURE WITH PRECIPITABLE WATER WATER RISING TO NEAR
.7 INCH BY MONDAY AFTERNOON. IN ADDITION WEAK EMBEDDED WAVES ARE
LIKELY TO MOVE ACROSS THE REGION AHEAD OF PRIMARY SYSTEM.
CONSEQUENTLY EXPECT PRECIP COVERAGE TO OCCUR MAINLY OVER THE
HIGHER MOUNTAINS THIS WEEKEND WITH A FEW RAIN SHOWERS FORECASTED
TO SPREAD ACROSS THE LOWER ELEVATIONS ON MONDAY.

MONDAY NIGHT A PACIFIC FRONT WILL MOVE ACROSS THE CWA ALONG WITH
ANOTHER UPPER WAVE WHILE CLOSED LOW LAGS TO THE SOUTHWEST.
ASSOCIATED LIFT FROM UPPER SYSTEM PLUS THE COLD FRONT WILL BRING
COOLER BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AGAIN WITH LOWLAND RAIN SHOWERS
AND HIGH MOUNTAIN SNOWS. TUESDAY NIGHT AND EARLY WEDNESDAY CLOSED
LOW WEAKENS AS IT PHASES WITH NORTHERN STREAM SYSTEM WITH THE
RESULTANT PRIMARY TROUGH SWEEPING ACROSS THE CWA. DYNAMIC
FORCING FROM TROUGH PASSAGE SHOULD INDUCE MORE LOWLAND RAIN
SHOWERS AND MOUNTAIN SNOWS BEFORE DRIER AND COOLER AIR FROM THE
NORTHWEST BRINGS PRECIP THREAT TO AN END AFTER TROUGH MOVES TO THE
EAST. THUS WEDNESDAY AND THURSDAY TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN AROUND
10 DEGREES BELOW NORMAL.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 28/00Z-29/00Z...
ACTIVE PACIFIC JET STREAM OVER THE REGION WILL CARRY VERY WEAK
IMPULSES THROUGH OVERNIGHT...BRINGING CHANCES FOR LIGHT SHOWERS OVER
THE GILA REGION AND SACRAMENTO MOUNTAINS. LOOK FOR WINDS OVERNIGHT
120-150/10-15 KTS GENERALLY EAST OF THE CONTINENTAL DIVIDE.  WINDS
WILL BE FM 190-220/5-10 KTS FOR AREAS WEST AND THE BOOTHEEL THROUGH
16Z.  WINDS SHIFT AND INCREASE TO 230-250/15-25G30KTS ALL AREAS
AFT 16Z.  EXPECT CLOUDS FEW-SCT 250-300 THRU PD. SCT-BKN 015-030
WILL BE FOUND ALONG AND E OF THE ERN TULAROSA BASIN FM 06-12Z.
EXPECT LGT OCNL MDT TURBC SFC-020 THROUGH 14Z...THEN LGT-MDT TURBC
SFC-120 AFT 19Z ESP ALG TO 50 MILES E OF AREA MTNS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
ANOTHER BLUSTERY OVERNIGHT IN STORE AGAIN FOR AREAS EAST OF THE
CONTINENTAL DIVIDE...AS COLDER AIR FROM THE PLAINS MIGRATES WESTWARD
OVER SOUTHERN NM.  A WARMING TREND WILL FOLLOW STARTING SATURDAY.
LOOK FOR BREEZY CONDITIONS SATURDAY AFTERNOON...WITH BREEZY TO WINDY
CONDITIONS EXPECTED SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY.   FOR THE BIGGER
PICTURE...BROAD UPPER LEVEL TROUGH EVIDENT OVER MUCH OF THE
COUNTRY...WILL CONTINUE TO DELIVER AN ACTIVE WEATHER PATTERN FOR THE
WESTERN STATES.  THIS FEATURES A STRONG PAC JET STREAM DIVING SOUTH
OFF THE WEST COAST...RE-CURVING EAST OVER OUR REGION.  WEAK
DISTURBANCES MOVING THROUGH THIS FLOW...WILL BRING CHANCES FOR
LOWLAND LIGHT RAIN/SNOW MIX AND MOUNTAIN SNOW FOR OUR NORTHERN ZONES
TONIGHT.   DURING THIS TIME A DEEP TROUGH ALOFT WILL FORM OVER
SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA...AND RE-ORIENT THE JET STREAM SW TO NE OVER THE
SOUTHWEST STATES.  THIS WILL ALLOW SNOW LEVELS TO CLIMB TO 9000 FEET
OR MORE BY SUNDAY. TROUGH WILL MOVE THROUGH OUR AREA EARLY NEXT
WEEK.  THIS WILL DEVELOP ANOTHER DEEP LOW PRESSURE TROUGH OVER
CALIFORNIA...WHICH WILL SPREAD SHOWERS OVER ALL AREAS MONDAY AND
EARLY TUESDAY. DRIER WEATHER WILL FOLLOW MID WEEK.

MIN RH SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM THE UPPER 20S LOWLANDS...TO UPPER
50S HIGH COUNTRY...VALUES FALL A FEW PERCENT SUNDAY UNDER THE
REINFORCED SOUTHWEST FLOW. MIN RH CLIMBS BACK UP 15 TO 20 PERCENT
MONDAY...AS THE TROUGH APPROACHES.  MIXING HEIGHTS SATURDAY WILL
RANGE FROM 8000 FEET IN THE LOWLANDS...TO 3000 FEET AT HIGHER
ELEVATIONS.  HEIGHTS CLIMB 500 TO 1000 FEET SUNDAY...THEN DROP
1000-3000 FEET MONDAY UNDER THE ADDED CLOUD COVER AND SHOWERS.
VENT RATES SATURDAY WILL RANGE FROM POOR OVER OTERO AND HUDSPETH
COUNTIES...TO EXCELLENT WEST OF THE RIO GRANDE. VALUES SUNDAY
IMPROVE TO GOOD EAST OF THE RIO GRANDE VALLEY...WHILE REMAINING
EXCELLENT WEST OF THE RIVER.  VERY GOOD TO EXCELLENT VENT RATES ARE
ANTICIPATED MONDAY AND TUESDAY...AS HEALTHY JET STREAM WINDS ALOFT
CONTINUE OVER THE REGION.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 39  70  48  73  50 /   0   0   0   0   0
SIERRA BLANCA           28  64  42  71  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
LAS CRUCES              35  66  42  70  46 /   0   0   0   0   0
ALAMOGORDO              36  62  43  68  45 /  10   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              27  44  33  49  33 /  20  20   0   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   37  58  44  64  43 /  10   0   0   0   0
SILVER CITY             35  58  40  56  40 /  20  30  20  20  20
DEMING                  36  66  41  67  42 /   0   0   0   0   0
LORDSBURG               37  65  40  64  41 /   0   0   0   0  10
WEST EL PASO METRO      42  69  50  72  51 /   0   0   0   0   0
DELL CITY               28  62  38  71  42 /  10   0   0   0   0
FORT HANCOCK            35  69  45  75  49 /   0   0   0   0   0
LOMA LINDA              34  61  46  65  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
FABENS                  37  72  45  75  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            36  70  45  71  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          36  66  46  68  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
JORNADA RANGE           29  65  39  67  40 /   0   0   0   0   0
HATCH                   35  67  42  68  44 /  10   0   0   0   0
COLUMBUS                42  65  45  67  47 /   0   0   0   0   0
OROGRANDE               35  65  46  70  48 /   0   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 26  53  37  57  37 /  20  20   0   0  10
MESCALERO               28  52  34  56  34 /  20  20   0   0  10
TIMBERON                27  53  37  56  38 /  20  20   0   0  10
WINSTON                 35  50  40  56  39 /  20  30  20  10  10
HILLSBORO               37  60  44  61  43 /  10  20  10  10   0
SPACEPORT               32  63  39  67  41 /  10   0   0   0   0
LAKE ROBERTS            34  55  38  55  37 /  20  30  30  20  20
HURLEY                  34  60  40  59  40 /  10  20  20  10  10
CLIFF                   35  64  40  62  39 /  10  20  30  20  10
MULE CREEK              29  58  34  58  34 /  10  20  30  30  20
FAYWOOD                 37  60  42  59  43 /  10  20  10  10   0
ANIMAS                  43  68  42  65  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
HACHITA                 42  68  41  67  43 /   0   0   0   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          45  70  42  67  44 /   0   0   0   0  10
CLOVERDALE              44  66  42  63  44 /   0   0   0   0  10

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

05 ROGASH/22 TRIPOLI




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