Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 301011
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
411 AM MDT FRI SEP 30 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Tropical moisture will persist over the area today and tonight,
resulting in scattered thunderstorms. A few of these storms could
produce gusty winds and small hail. The moisture will mostly exit
the area Saturday and Sunday as drier southwest flow from a
Pacific trough moves over the area. The Pacific trough will push a
cool front to the Borderland Monday, and along with a quick hit of
tropical moisture again, could produce isolated thunderstorms. By
Tuesday through much of the rest of the week dry air returns,
bringing back mostly clear skies. Temperatures will range from
slightly below normal to normal through the weekend and into next
week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Recycled tropical moisture continues to stream up over the area
around a high over northern Mexico. This has continued to kick off
some thunderstorms early this morning. The airmass in marginally
unstable, and may be helped by some drying aloft. Expect this
pattern to continue with perhaps the best chances of storms from
the Rio Grande Valley east this afternoon and tonight. Afternoon
MUCAPES of 300-800 J/kg along with decent shear environment
suggest small hail and gusty winds to 40 mph.

Saturday and Sunday...Blocking low over Great Lakes region finally
shifts east allowing next Pacific trough to move onshore in the
west. This will initially bring dry southwest flow aloft to the
area and flush out the moisture. Should be very nice days with
seasonable temperatures.

Monday...Models continue to show re-moistening up as Pacific
surface cool front approaches the area. Quick surge of tropical
moisture ingests into Pacific trough/front system, perhaps from
new storm Seymour, and spreads into area. Put POPS in all areas
as PW`s increase from around .50" over the weekend to around 1.00"
on Monday. Modest MUCAPES and slightly negative LI`s suggest
thunderstorms possible. Very little directional shear but looks
like decent speed shear, so a few storms could become strong.

Tuesday through Thursday...Pacific trough and front finally pass
through by Tuesday morning, ushering in drier air again for this
period.

Still out of the forecast period but GFS does show next Pacific
trough digging a bit further south down off the Baja coast,
backing low/mid level winds around to southeast and drawing
dryline near or into the eastern CWA. ECMWF appears to also be
catching on to this. Worth watching for.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 30/12Z-01/12Z...
Genly lower VFR conds. SCT/BKN120 layers FL300. Scattered -SHRA
BKN100 with isolated -TSRA BKN090CB. After 17Z...isolated 3SM TSRA
OVC080CB, with small hail and wind gusts 30-40kts possible. Best
chance for these stronger storms is from the Rio Grande Valley
east.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Scattered thunderstorms again today as we see one more day of the
tropical moisture hanging around. Moisture exits for the weekend
for a dry and mild period. Pacific front and some new tropical
moisture make a quick appearance again Monday for a chance of
thunderstorms. The front and moisture are east of the area on
Tuesday, bringing another stretch of dry weather with seasonable
temperatures. The old model trend of windy Monday and Tuesday
looks to have disappeared-just as well for fire concerns.

Min RH`s go on a roller coaster, with lowland readings in the 30s
today dipping into the 20s Saturday/Sunday, then up to the 30s
Monday before plummeting into the teens Tuesday and beyond.
Mountain RH`s much the same--in the 40s today, dropping into the
30s Saturday/Sunday, back to the 40s Monday and then into the 20
after Monday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 82  61  85  62 /  20  20   0   0
Sierra Blanca           77  56  82  58 /  20  20  20   0
Las Cruces              80  57  83  56 /  20  10   0   0
Alamogordo              82  56  84  57 /  30  20   0   0
Cloudcroft              63  47  67  41 /  30  30  10   0
Truth or Consequences   80  56  82  55 /  30  10   0   0
Silver City             74  53  76  52 /  30  20   0   0
Deming                  81  56  84  54 /  30  10   0   0
Lordsburg               81  55  82  53 /  30  10   0   0
West El Paso Metro      82  60  84  62 /  20  20   0   0
Dell City               81  54  85  57 /  20  20  10   0
Fort Hancock            82  59  86  60 /  20  20   0   0
Loma Linda              75  58  78  59 /  20  20   0   0
Fabens                  82  57  85  59 /  20  20   0   0
Santa Teresa            81  60  84  60 /  20  10   0   0
White Sands HQ          81  59  83  59 /  20  10   0   0
Jornada Range           81  55  83  53 /  20  10   0   0
Hatch                   81  57  83  56 /  20  10   0   0
Columbus                81  58  84  56 /  20  10   0   0
Orogrande               81  59  83  59 /  20  20   0   0
Mayhill                 69  51  75  48 /  30  30  10   0
Mescalero               71  50  75  47 /  30  30  10   0
Timberon                68  49  73  46 /  30  30  10   0
Winston                 73  47  77  48 /  30  20   0   0
Hillsboro               77  53  80  53 /  30  10   0   0
Spaceport               80  56  82  53 /  30  10   0   0
Lake Roberts            75  50  79  48 /  30  20   0   0
Hurley                  76  52  79  51 /  30  20   0   0
Cliff                   79  51  82  49 /  30  20   0   0
Mule Creek              77  49  78  47 /  40  20   0   0
Faywood                 78  54  80  53 /  30  10   0   0
Animas                  82  54  83  53 /  30  10   0   0
Hachita                 82  54  83  52 /  30  10   0   0
Antelope Wells          80  54  81  54 /  30  10   0   0
Cloverdale              77  55  77  54 /  30  10   0   0

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

17 Hefner



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