Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 042124
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
324 PM MDT WED MAY 4 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT WILL SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST AS A LARGE
PACIFIC STORM PROGRESSES INLAND. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT ALONG WITH
MOISTURE MOVING UP TO THE SOUTHERN NEW MEXICO DESERT COULD PRODUCE
A FEW THUNDERSTORMS THURSDAY FROM EL PASO WEST. TEMPERATURES WILL
BE QUITE WARM...WITH THE FIRST 90 DEGREE READINGS OF THE SEASON
POSSIBLE ACROSS THE DESERT. THE PACIFIC STORM WILL MOVE OVER
ARIZONA BY SATURDAY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WILL
CONTINUE EAST OF EL PASO ON FRIDAY...BUT DRY CONDITIONS WILL HOLD
FOR THE MOST PART. GUSTY WINDS AND BLOWING DUST WILL ALSO DEVELOP
FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. BY SUNDAY THE STORM SKIPS ACROSS NORTHERN NEW
MEXICO. THIS WILL BRING A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS TO THE
MOUNTAIN AREAS. OTHERWISE EXPECT CLEARING SKIES.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
UPPER RIDGE AXIS OVER NEW MEXICO TONIGHT WILL CONTINUE WITH THE
CLEAR SKIES...BUT THE AXIS WILL SHIFT JUST EAST OF THE AREA
THURSDAY IN RESPONSE TO LARGE PACIFIC STORM SYSTEM CURRENTLY OFF
THE CENTRAL CALIFORNIA COAST. A DISTURBANCE ALOFT WILL MOVE UP TO
NEW MEXICO THURSDAY IN THE INCREASING SOUTHWEST FLOW. AT THE
SURFACE MOISTURE FROM THE GULF OF MEXICO/SOUTHERN TEXAS WILL WORK
ITS WAY INTO NORTHERN MEXICO AND THE SOUTHERN DESERT AREA OF NEW
MEXICO. THESE TWO FEATURES WILL COMBINE TO GIVE A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS TO MUCH OF THE AREA FROM EL PASO WEST. STRONG
CONVERGENCE/DRY BOUNDARY LINE WILL BE LOCATED SOMEWHAT
COINCIDENTAL TO THE THE DIVIDE EARLY AFTERNOON...AND MOVING EAST
TOWARD EL PASO IN THE EVENING. MODELS SHOW BROAD AREA OF MUCAPES
OF 200-500 J/KG WITH UP TO 1000 J/KG OVER THE GILA/BLACK RANGE
ALONG WITH VERY WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT...SO DON`T EXPECT STORMS TO
BECOME SEVERE. WET BULB ZEROS AROUND 13,000 FT COULD ALLOW SMALL
HAIL TO DEVELOP. TEMPERATURES WILL REMAIN QUITE WARM...WITH OUR
FIRST 90 DEGREE READINGS POSSIBLE OVER THE DESERT AREAS.

SOUTHWEST FLOW ALOFT WILL STRENGTHEN FRIDAY AS PACIFIC STORM MOVES
OVER SOUTHERN CALIFORNIA AND FAR WEST ARIZONA. THIS WILL FORCE THE
MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY OF THURSDAY EASTWARD WITH A SLIGHT
CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS MAINLY EAST OF EL PASO. WINDS WILL PICK
UP...WITH STRONGEST WINDS FROM EL PASO WEST. MAY APPROACH ADVISORY
CRITERIA BUT FOR NOW WILL LEAVE JUST BELOW. SATURDAY THE STORM
SYSTEM WILL BE OVER ARIZONA. THE PACIFIC FRONT LIKELY PASSES
FRIDAY NIGHT SO WINDS WILL BE A BIT LESS ON SATURDAY. TEMPERATURES
WILL COOL BELOW NORMAL BY SATURDAY.

ON SUNDAY THE PACIFIC STORM WILL TRACK ACROSS NORTHERN NEW MEXICO.
THIS WILL BRING SOME CLOUDS AND A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS ACROSS
THE NORTHERN ZONES...OTHERWISE SKIES WILL BE CLEARING. AFTER A
COOL SUNDAY...TEMPERATURES WILL WARM BACK UP ABOVE NORMAL BY
TUESDAY WITH PLENTY OF SUNSHINE...AS AN UPPER RIDGE BUILDS BACK
OVER THE DESERT SOUTHWEST.

&&

.AVIATION...05/12Z-06/12Z.
VFR CONDS THRU PD. 00Z-18Z FEW-SCT080-100 SCT250 WINDS GNLY NE-
SE08G17KTS. WINDS SHIFTING MORE TO SSW AND INCRG GRADUALLY BY THU
AFTN. 18Z-00Z SCT080-100 SCT-BKN250 WINDS SW 12G22KTS. OCNL LGT
MECHANICAL TURBC OVR MTNS AFT 18Z.

.FIRE WEATHER...
TEMPERATURES WILL CLIMB TO NEAR NORMAL TODAY WITH SUNNY SKIES UNDER
HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT. A SLIGHT INCREASE IN UPPER LEVEL MOISTURE AND A
WEAK UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL BRING ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS TO
AREA THURSDAY. SOME LOWLANDS MAY SEE 90 DEGREES ON THURSDAY OR
FRIDAY. RED FLAG CONDITIONS ARE LIKELY FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS WITH DRY
LIGHTNING ESPECIALLY OVER THE SACRAMENTOS. ORE STRONG DRY WINDS WILL
CONTINUE SATURDAY. MEAN RH WED AND THU AFTERNOONS: MAINLY 10% TO 15%
LOWLANDS AND 15% TO 20% ABOVE 7500 FEET.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 62  90  64  93 /   0   0  20   0
SIERRA BLANCA           55  86  60  91 /   0   0   0  10
LAS CRUCES              54  88  57  89 /   0  10  20   0
ALAMOGORDO              50  88  59  90 /   0   0   0   0
CLOUDCROFT              38  66  40  68 /   0  10   0  10
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   53  87  58  87 /   0  10  20   0
SILVER CITY             49  83  50  82 /   0  20  20   0
DEMING                  53  88  54  86 /   0  20  20   0
LORDSBURG               55  90  52  85 /   0  20   0   0
WEST EL PASO METRO      62  89  63  92 /   0   0  20   0
DELL CITY               47  88  55  92 /   0   0   0  10
FORT HANCOCK            54  90  62  95 /   0   0   0  10
LOMA LINDA              54  86  61  90 /   0   0   0  10
FABENS                  57  89  62  94 /   0   0   0   0
SANTA TERESA            57  89  60  91 /   0  10  20   0
WHITE SANDS HQ          55  88  59  89 /   0   0  20   0
JORNADA RANGE           46  88  48  89 /   0   0  20   0
HATCH                   48  91  53  90 /   0  10  20   0
COLUMBUS                56  90  57  90 /   0  20  20   0
OROGRANDE               53  88  61  91 /   0   0   0   0
MAYHILL                 40  77  46  79 /   0  10   0  10
MESCALERO               38  77  44  79 /   0  10   0  10
TIMBERON                38  74  42  78 /   0  10   0  10
WINSTON                 40  81  41  81 /   0  20  20   0
HILLSBORO               48  86  53  85 /   0  20  20   0
SPACEPORT               47  88  49  88 /   0   0  20   0
LAKE ROBERTS            40  83  42  81 /   0  20  20   0
HURLEY                  48  85  52  83 /   0  20  20   0
CLIFF                   40  88  42  83 /   0  20  10   0
MULE CREEK              39  88  42  83 /   0  20   0   0
FAYWOOD                 48  87  50  84 /   0  20  20   0
ANIMAS                  53  89  50  85 /   0  10   0   0
HACHITA                 51  90  53  87 /   0  20   0   0
ANTELOPE WELLS          56  88  50  84 /   0  20   0   0
CLOVERDALE              52  86  52  80 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR NMZ110>112.

TX...FIRE WEATHER WATCH FROM FRIDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH FRIDAY EVENING
     FOR TXZ055.

&&

$$

HEFNER/NOVLAN



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