Area Forecast Discussion
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FXUS64 KEPZ 312026
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso Tx/Santa Teresa NM
226 PM MDT WED AUG 31 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Abundant moisture will help fuel scattered showers and
thunderstorms tonight and Thursday. A few storms could produce
over an inch of rain in an hour which could lead to some flash
flooding. For Friday and the holiday weekend we will see lower
rain chances but our temperatures will creep a little above
normal.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
We continue to see abundant moisture across the area which will
continue to fuel scattered showers and thunderstorms today through
Thursday. Currently there is not much of a flow pattern aloft, the
intermountain west is under a very broad area of upper level high
pressure. Near the surface we see east and southeast winds which
are continuing to help bring abundant moisture in from the east.
This moisture is helping to fuel scattered showers and
thunderstorms. With the abundant moisture any storms that do
develop will be efficient rainfall producers. A few storms this
evening and again on Thursday could produce some isolated flash
flooding, but without a real focus like an upper level low or a
frontal system the heavy rain could fall just about any place. For
now I do not see the need for a flash flood watch since there is
no clear signal when or where the heavy rain will occur.

On Friday we will begin to see the westerly winds scour out some
of our moisture. On Friday the threat for heavy rain will lessen
but we will still see a chance for afternoon and evening
thunderstorms. For Saturday afternoon through Labor Day we will
see enough drying that we can pull most of the pops from the
lowlands. Then for next Tuesday and Wednesday the upper level high
to our east will recenter over the Gulf of Mexico and the
circulation around the high will begin to push moisture back into
the region. Right now the ECMWF is more bullish on rain amounts
for that time period than the GFS. For now I have some slight
chance pops in the forecast on next Tuesday and Wednesday to cover
the increased moisture.

Quickly looking at our afternoon high temperatures. After today`s
well below normal temperatures we will see a few degrees of
warming on Thursday, but highs will still be running around five
degrees below normal. Then on Friday as we begin to dry out we
will see our highs return to seasonal normals. For Saturday
through Monday as the drier air works into the area we will see
our high temperatures creep a few degrees above normal. Finally
for the middle of next week as clouds and moisture start to return
our highs will settle back toward seasonal normals.



&&

.AVIATION...valid 01/00Z - 02/00Z subtropical moisture continues
to flow into the CWA with easterly winds. In general... winds ENE-
ESE 7-12 kts  Sky in general SCT-BKN 040-060 BKN 100-140 and BKN 200-
250. Areas of SCT020 BKN030-040CB BKN-OVC 080-12 BKN-OVC 200. LCL
VSBY 2-4 MILES IN RA/BR. MVFR TO IFR in heavier showers and embedded
thunderstorms.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Moist and unstable East to east winds continue to flow into southern
New Mexico and Far West texas into Thursday. Continued scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms through Thursday with heavy
rainfalls causing an increasing probability of some flash flooding
over a few low lying locations. Showers and thunderstorms should
diminish somewhat by the  weekend as westerly winds push drier air
into the Borderland. Temperatures around 5 to 10 degrees below
normal today through Thursday rising to near normal by Friday. Min
RH values will generally range in the 40% to 50% values over most
areas Wednesday and into the 60%-70% levels in the Sacramento
Mountains. RH values overall will be about 5% lower on Thursday.


&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 67  85  69  89 /  50  50  30  20
Sierra Blanca           64  82  65  85 /  40  50  30  30
Las Cruces              64  82  65  87 /  50  50  30  20
Alamogordo              63  82  64  87 /  50  50  30  30
Cloudcroft              48  63  51  66 /  60  70  40  50
Truth or Consequences   61  80  64  84 /  40  50  40  30
Silver City             58  76  59  80 /  50  60  30  40
Deming                  64  83  65  87 /  50  50  30  20
Lordsburg               64  85  65  89 /  50  50  30  20
West El Paso Metro      68  84  69  88 /  50  50  30  20
Dell City               63  83  64  86 /  40  50  30  30
Fort Hancock            68  86  69  89 /  40  50  30  20
Loma Linda              61  78  64  82 /  50  60  30  30
Fabens                  66  85  68  89 /  50  50  30  20
Santa Teresa            66  84  67  88 /  50  50  30  20
White Sands HQ          65  81  66  86 /  50  60  40  30
Jornada Range           62  81  63  86 /  50  50  40  30
Hatch                   64  81  65  86 /  50  50  40  20
Columbus                65  84  66  89 /  50  50  30  20
Orogrande               64  82  66  86 /  50  50  30  30
Mayhill                 52  68  53  72 /  50  70  40  50
Mescalero               53  72  54  75 /  60  70  40  50
Timberon                51  69  52  72 /  60  70  40  50
Winston                 53  74  55  78 /  50  60  40  50
Hillsboro               58  78  60  83 /  50  60  40  40
Spaceport               61  80  63  84 /  40  50  40  20
Lake Roberts            54  76  55  79 /  50  70  40  40
Hurley                  59  77  59  82 /  50  50  30  40
Cliff                   60  83  61  86 /  50  60  40  40
Mule Creek              56  80  57  83 /  50  60  40  40
Faywood                 59  79  60  84 /  50  50  30  40
Animas                  62  86  64  89 /  50  50  30  20
Hachita                 62  84  63  89 /  50  40  30  20
Antelope Wells          62  83  63  87 /  60  50  30  30
Cloverdale              61  80  62  83 /  50  50  30  30

&&

.EPZ Watches/Warnings/Advisories...
NM...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

Brice/Novlan



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