Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 212051
AFDEPZ

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service El Paso TX/Santa Teresa NM
151 PM MST Sat Jan 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Current storm system affecting region will keep rain and snow
showers going through the evening and wind gusts over 60 mph.
Temperatures will warm up with drier conditions for Sunday into
Monday. Another system will bring a cold front and some
precipitation to the mountains and western areas Tuesday followed
by cool, dry air for the remainder of the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
Upper trough moving over the CWA at this time and will be east of
the area by this evening. Continue to get scattered rain/snow
showers across the area but expect this to end a little after
sunset. May keep some light snow going in the Sacramento Mountains
through the evening but think warning will be able to be cancelled
early. Winds will be the biggest concern for the short term with
wind gusts over 60 mph reported around Srn NM. As system moves
east of area surface gradient will tighten this afternoon and
expect strongest winds between now and 03Z. Since snow showers are
continuing in the mountains will just keep current highlights
going with afternoon forecast package.

Upper ridge will be moving over Rockies Sunday with southwesterly
flow setting up behind it. This will allow temperatures to warm
over the next couple of days with highs near 70 possible in lowest
elevations on Monday. Next system will be weakening as it moves
onshore into Nrn CA and becomes moisture starved over the CWA.
Should still see some light to moderate snow in the Gila and over
into the Sacs Tuesday but lowland precipitation will likely remain
west of the Rio. As this system passes though, a N to NW flow
aloft sets up with a couple of disturbances rotating around system
around Great Lakes. These disturbances will be enough to bring
some surges of colder air into the region with overnight lows
falling into the 20s most locations for the later half of the
week but it will remain dry.

&&

.AVIATION...Valid 22/00Z-23/00Z.
Strong winds will prevail early in the wake of a departing storm
system with a decrease in speeds and clearing skies for Sunday. VFR
conditions should prevail throughout with FEW-SCT050-060 P6SM
28020G35KT through roughly 12Z with SKC-FEW150 P6SM 30012KT
afterwards.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Winds will be brisk through the night across eastern fire zones as
our most recent winter storm departs. Look for lighter winds and
drier conditions to set in for Sunday and Monday with temps warming
back above normal by Monday afternoon as a ridge passes overhead.
Another upper system will bring increased winds Tuesday along with a
slight chance for rain and a few light mountain snow showers Monday
night and early Tuesday. In the wake of this system temps will
remain cooler as drier air again becomes established. Min RH
values look to stay at or above 30 percent for most locations
throughout the forecast period.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
El Paso                 41  56  38  69 /   0   0   0   0
Sierra Blanca           34  54  35  67 /   0   0   0   0
Las Cruces              32  53  34  65 /   0   0   0   0
Alamogordo              30  52  35  62 /   0   0   0   0
Cloudcroft              24  41  33  47 /  50   0   0   0
Truth or Consequences   29  51  34  59 /   0   0   0   0
Silver City             26  46  29  54 /  20   0   0  20
Deming                  30  53  32  64 /   0   0   0   0
Lordsburg               29  53  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
West El Paso Metro      40  56  37  69 /   0   0   0   0
Dell City               34  56  33  69 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Hancock            35  58  36  74 /   0   0   0   0
Loma Linda              34  50  36  62 /   0   0   0   0
Fabens                  40  57  34  71 /   0   0   0   0
Santa Teresa            36  55  35  68 /   0   0   0   0
White Sands HQ          34  54  37  65 /   0   0   0   0
Jornada Range           27  53  33  63 /   0   0   0   0
Hatch                   31  53  33  64 /   0   0   0   0
Columbus                33  55  34  67 /   0   0   0   0
Orogrande               33  54  36  65 /   0   0   0   0
Mayhill                 29  49  35  56 /  40   0   0   0
Mescalero               27  45  33  56 /  50   0   0   0
Timberon                25  46  29  53 /  50   0   0   0
Winston                 23  49  27  54 /   0   0   0  10
Hillsboro               27  50  31  58 /   0   0   0  20
Spaceport               30  52  32  61 /   0   0   0   0
Lake Roberts            18  44  22  46 /  30   0   0  30
Hurley                  28  48  29  57 /  10   0   0  20
Cliff                   23  50  28  58 /  20   0   0  20
Mule Creek              21  48  27  52 /  20   0   0  30
Faywood                 27  49  31  59 /  10   0   0  20
Animas                  31  55  33  67 /   0   0   0   0
Hachita                 31  56  31  66 /   0   0   0   0
Antelope Wells          30  57  34  68 /   0   0   0   0
Cloverdale              29  52  36  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for NMZ404>407-410-411-
     413-417.

     Wind Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for NMZ409-412.

     Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for NMZ414-415.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM MST Sunday for NMZ416.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 11 PM MST this evening for NMZ401-
     403-408.

     Winter Storm Warning until 11 PM MST this evening for NMZ402.

TX...High Wind Warning until 5 AM MST Sunday for TXZ418>424.

&&

$$

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