Area Forecast Discussion
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000
FXUS64 KEPZ 060917
AFDEPZ

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE EL PASO TX/SANTA TERESA NM
317 AM MDT MON JUL 6 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
AVAILABLE MOISTURE WILL FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS
ACROSS THE AREA THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. PERIODS OF LIGHT TO
MODERATE RAIN AND GUSTY WINDS ARE POSSIBLE. A FEW STRONGER STORMS
MAY PRODUCE HEAVY RAINFALL THAT COULD LEAD TO LOCALIZED FLOODING.
MOISTURE WILL INCREASE ACROSS THE REGION LATE WEDNESDAY THROUGH
FRIDAY WITH SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS WITH LOCALLY HEAVY
RAINFALL POSSIBLE. THE REGION WILL BEGIN TO DRY OUT DURING THE
WEEKEND WITH HIGH PRESSURE BUILDING OVER THE AREA. TEMPERATURES
WILL REMAIN NEAR SEASONAL NORMALS.

&&

.DISCUSSION...
A WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL PARTIALLY REDUCE MOISTURE ACROSS THE
REGION TODAY. HOWEVER CONSIDERABLE MOISTURE REMAINS TO FUEL
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.
STORM FREQUENCY WILL BE GREATEST OVER THE MOUNTAINS WHERE HIGHER
RAIN AMOUNTS ARE EXPECTED. THE LOWLANDS WILL SEE SOME STORM
ACTIVITY BUT RAIN COVERAGE WILL BE MORE SPOTTY WITH LESSER RAIN
AMOUNTS OVERALL. A FEW STORMS MAY PRODUCE LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL
WITH POSSIBLE FLOODING ALONG DRAINAGES AND ARROYOS.

A FRONTAL BOUNDARY WILL PUSH PART WAY INTO THE AREA ON TUESDAY.
THIS FEATURE MAY SLIGHT INCREASE THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT OVER
AREAS EAST OF EL PASO WHILE STORMS BECOME MORE ISOLATED TO THE
WEST. MOUNTAIN ZONES WILL CONTINUE TO HAVE THE BEST CHANCE OF
RAINFALL WITH A VARIABLE DISTRIBUTION OVER THE LOWLANDS. HEAVY
RAIN IS NOT ANTICIPATED FOR TUESDAY`S STORMS. TEMPERATURES WILL
RUN CLOSE OR SLIGHTLY BELOW SEASONAL AVERAGES.

THE WESTERLY FLOW PATTERN WILL BECOME MORE SOUTHWEST ORIENTED AS A
PACIFIC LOW MOVES ONTO THE WEST COAST BY LATE WEDNESDAY. AT THE
SAME TIME HIGH PRESSURE CENTERED OVER THE GULF STATES WILL EXPAND
WESTWARD INTO TEXAS. A DEEPER PLUME OF MOISTURE WILL BEGIN TO
DEVELOP BETWEEN THE TWO CIRCULATIONS OVER THE LOCAL AREA
WEDNESDAY NIGHT AND THURSDAY. THIS CONCENTRATED MOISTURE WILL FUEL
SCATTERED TO NUMEROUS THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA WEDNESDAY
NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY. PERIODS OF HEAVY RAINFALL WITH LOCALIZED
FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE THROUGH THE PERIOD.

HIGH PRESSURE WILL CONTINUE TO EXPAND WESTWARD ON SATURDAY AND
SUNDAY. AS RESULT...THE DEEP MOISTURE PLUME WILL SHIFT MORE TO THE
WEST INTO ARIZONA AND DECREASE CHANCES FOR THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS
THE AREA. MOSTLY DRY CONDITIONS AREA EXPECTED FOR SATURDAY THROUGH
NEXT MONDAY WITH THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT LIMITED TO MAINLY THE
MOUNTAINS. DRIER CONDITIONS WILL RESULT IN WARMER TEMPERATURES
WITH THE LOWLANDS POSSIBLY WARMING BACK UP INTO THE LOWER 100`S.

&&

.AVIATION...VALID 06/12Z-07/12Z...
AVAILABLE ATMOSPHERIC MOISTURE WILL FUEL SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ACROSS THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. PERIODS
OF IFR VSBY AND CIGS WILL OCCUR NEAR STRONGER STORMS. SKY COND
GNRLY FEW- SCT060-080 BKN200-250...AFT 18Z SCT TSRA...VSBY 1-3 SM
IN MDT TO HVY RAIN...SKIES BKN060-080 AFT 18Z. WINDS GENERALLY W
TO NW 5-15KTS AND GUSTY NEAR STORMS.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
MOISTURE WILL REMAIN IN PLACE ACROSS THE REGION FOR THE UPCOMING
WEEK WHICH WILL MEAN AN ALMOST DAILY CHANCE FOR SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS. MONDAY MAY BE A BIT OF A DOWN DAY BEFORE A WEAK
BACK DOOR FRONT MOVES IN TUESDAY. THROUGH MIDWEEK THE MAIN THREAT
WILL BE HEAVY RAIN...BUT AN UNUSUALLY STRONG UPPER LOW WILL BE
MOVING ONSHORE INTO SOUTHERN CA THU WHICH COULD HELP IN STRONGER
STORMS DEVELOPING FOR THE END OF THE WEEK. TEMPERATURES ARE
EXPECTED TO REMAIN CLOSE TO OR SLIGHTLY BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE
PERIOD WITH RELATIVE HUMIDITIES REMAINING ABOVE 20 PERCENT WITH
EXCELLENT RECOVERIES.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
EL PASO                 97  74  95  73 /  20  30  30  50
SIERRA BLANCA           93  69  90  67 /  20  40  30  40
LAS CRUCES              94  70  93  69 /  20  30  40  50
ALAMOGORDO              93  69  91  67 /  30  40  30  50
CLOUDCROFT              71  54  68  53 /  50  60  60  70
TRUTH OR CONSEQUENCES   92  69  90  67 /  30  30  40  50
SILVER CITY             83  64  85  62 /  50  30  30  40
DEMING                  93  70  94  68 /  30  30  30  40
LORDSBURG               91  68  94  67 /  30  30  20  30
WEST EL PASO METRO      97  74  95  73 /  20  40  30  50
DELL CITY               96  68  91  67 /  20  40  20  50
FORT HANCOCK            96  73  95  71 /  20  40  40  40
LOMA LINDA              91  68  88  68 /  20  40  30  50
FABENS                  97  72  95  71 /  20  40  30  50
SANTA TERESA            95  73  94  71 /  20  40  30  50
WHITE SANDS HQ          94  70  92  69 /  20  40  40  50
JORNADA RANGE           94  69  93  67 /  20  30  40  50
HATCH                   94  69  93  67 /  20  30  30  50
COLUMBUS                92  70  93  70 /  20  30  20  40
OROGRANDE               94  71  91  70 /  20  40  30  50
MAYHILL                 81  57  74  56 /  40  50  50  60
MESCALERO               82  57  77  56 /  40  50  50  60
TIMBERON                81  57  77  56 /  40  50  50  60
WINSTON                 84  60  83  59 /  50  40  60  50
HILLSBORO               91  65  90  63 /  40  30  50  50
SPACEPORT               93  68  92  66 /  30  30  40  50
LAKE ROBERTS            83  59  83  57 /  60  40  40  40
HURLEY                  86  64  87  63 /  40  30  30  30
CLIFF                   90  65  92  63 /  50  30  30  30
MULE CREEK              88  63  90  62 /  50  30  30  30
FAYWOOD                 87  66  88  64 /  30  30  40  40
ANIMAS                  91  67  95  67 /  30  30  20  20
HACHITA                 92  68  95  67 /  30  30  20  30
ANTELOPE WELLS          89  66  93  67 /  50  30  20  30
CLOVERDALE              86  65  90  65 /  40  40  30  20

&&

.EPZ WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NM...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

04 LUNDEEN



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