Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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000
FXUS63 KLSX 032342
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
642 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

.SHORT TERM: (THROUGH THE EVENING)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

UPPER AIR PATTERN CONTINUES TO FEATURE A DEEP TROF ACROSS THE
EASTERN CONUS AND RIDGE ACROSS THE ROCKIES...WHICH KEEPS US FIRMLY
IN NORTHWEST FLOW ALOFT. AT THE SURFACE...THE COLD FRONT CONTINUES
TO SLOWLY DRIFT SOUTH AND WILL EVENTUALLY STALL ACROSS SOUTHWEST
MISSOURI THIS EVENING. A STUBBORN CLUSTER OF SHOWERS AND STORMS THAT
DEVELOPED THIS MORNING ACROSS NORTHWEST MISSOURI CONTINUES TO
DECREASE IN INTENSITY AND COVERAGE AS THEY SINK SOUTHEAST TOWARD ST.
LOUIS.  MEANWHILE...CU FIELD NEAR FRONT IS STARTING TO LOOK A LITTLE
AGITATED SOUTH OF KANSAS CITY TO NEAR VICHY/ROLLA.  WILL GO AHEAD
AND KEEP SOME SLIGHT CHANCES IN FOR THE LATE AFTERNOON AND EARLY
EVENING HOURS TO ACCOUNT FOR THESE TWO AREAS.

CVKING

.LONG TERM: (TONIGHT THROUGH NEXT MONDAY)
ISSUED AT 240 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

EXPECT ISOLATED TO SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS TO DEVELOP LATER
TONIGHT FROM NORTHWEST MISSOURI TO EAST CENTRAL MISSOURI WHERE
AREA OF MOISTURE CONVERGENCE WILL SET UP NORTH OF THE STALLED
SURFACE BOUNDARY. THIS ACTIVITY WILL LINGER TUESDAY MORNING WITH
ADDITIONAL STORMS POSSIBLE TUESDAY AFTERNOON CLOSER TO THE FRONT.

MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT THAT A STRONG VORTICITY
MAXIMA/SHORTWAVE WILL SLOWLY MOVE ACROSS THE REGION TUESDAY NIGHT
THROUGH THURSDAY MORNING. EXPECT SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS TO
REDEVELOP TUESDAY EVENING AND INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVERNIGHT AS THE
SYNOPTIC LIFT INCREASES WITH THE APPROACH OF THE VORT MAX AND IS
FURTHER FOCUSED BY THE LOW LEVEL JET INTERSECTING THE FRONTAL ZONE.
THIS AREA OF RAIN SHOULD SLOWLY SHIFT EAST/NORTHEAST ON WEDNESDAY
MORNING WITH ADDITIONAL SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS REDEVELOPING
DURING THE AFTERNOON/EVENING IN VICINITY OF THE FRONT AND SHORTWAVE.
FINALLY THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE EAST OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY
MORNING...BUT NOT BEFORE MOST OF THE AREA SEES 1 TO 3 INCHES OF
RAINFALL. THE POTENTIAL IS CERTAINLY THERE FOR SOME LOCALLY HEAVIER
AMOUNTS...BUT FAIRLY HIGH FLASH FLOOD GUIDANCE AND THE FACT THAT THE
RAIN IS EXPECTED TO FALL OVER A TWO DAY PERIOD PRECLUDES ANY FLOOD
HEADLINES AT THIS TIME.

PATTERN REMAINS ACTIVE AS WE STAY ON THE NORTHEAST FRINGE OF THE
BUILDING RIDGE OF HIGH PRESSURE ALOFT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN PLAINS.
HAD TO INTRODUCE SOME LOW POPS FOR THE WEEKEND AS BOTH THE ECWMF AND
GFS HAVE A SHORTWAVE MOVING ACROSS THE REGION WITH THAT PESKY FRONT
STILL LINGERING NEARBY.

TEMPERATURES WILL GENERALLY BE BELOW NORMAL THROUGH THE ENTIRE SEVEN
DAY FORECAST THANKS TO CLOUD COVER AND PRECIPITATION.

CVKING

&&

.AVIATION:  (FOR THE 00Z TAFS THROUGH 00Z TUESDAY EVENING)
ISSUED AT 625 PM CDT MON AUG 3 2015

COLD FRONT HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY FROM EAST TO WEST NEAR THE
I-70 CORRIDOR. EXPECT LITTLE IF ANY THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ALONG
THE FRONT THIS EVENING...BUT A MODEST LOW LEVEL JET IS EXPECTED TO
DEVELOP OVERNIGHT AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS SHOULD DEVELOP ALONG
THE FRONT WHERE THE JET INTERSECTS IT. STORMS SHOULD DIMINISH
AFTER 12Z. VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL OUTSIDE
OF THUNDERSTORMS. THE FRONT WILL BEGIN MOVING SLOWLY BACK TO THE
NORTH ON TUESDAY...BUT WILL STILL BE IN THE AREA. SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED OVER MUCH OF THE AREA DUE TO DAYTIME
HEATING AND LIFT FROM THE FRONT.

SPECIFICS FOR KSTL:

VFR FLIGHT CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED TO PREVAIL AT LAMBERT AT LEAST
THROUGH THE EVENING HOURS. THERE IS A COLD FRONT IN THE AREA WHICH
HAS BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY JUST SOUTH OF THE STL METRO AREA.
EXPECT A LOW LEVEL JET TO DEVELOP OVERNIGHT WHICH WILL PRODUCE
THUNDERSTORMS AS IT INTERSECTS THE FRONT. THINK THE COVERAGE WILL
BE FAIRLY SCATTERED...WHICH IS WHY I DIDN`T GO WITH A STRONGER
FORECAST IN THE TAF. STORMS SHOULD DISSIPATE/MOVE SOUTH OF THE
TERMINAL AFTER 12Z TUESDAY. THE FRONT WILL START TO DRIFT BACK
NORTHWARD ON TUESDAY BUT WILL STILL PROVIDE A FOCUS FOR ADDITIONAL
THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT ON TUESDAY AFTERNOON.

CARNEY

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS:
SAINT LOUIS     73  89  71  81 /  40  40  70  80
QUINCY          66  82  67  81 /  30  20  60  60
COLUMBIA        71  88  70  81 /  20  40  70  80
JEFFERSON CITY  72  89  70  82 /  20  40  70  80
SALEM           69  86  69  83 /  20  20  50  70
FARMINGTON      70  90  70  83 /  20  30  60  80

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX


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