Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS St. Louis, MO

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FXUS63 KLSX 032235
AFDLSX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION...UPDATED AVIATION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ST LOUIS MO
535 PM CDT THU SEP 3 2015

.SHORT TERM:  (Through Late Tonight)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

An upper level RIDGE is dominating the central and eastern CONUS
this afternoon with no discernible upper level disturbances
within this flow nearby our region. Once again, a field of cumulus
clouds has formed in nearly the same area as yesterday: generally
over areas south of I-70 in MO, and southeast of I-55 in IL. Temps
have risen into the 90 to 95 degree range.

May see a very brief and limited TSRA threat late this afternoon
within the current cumulus field with what should be (again) a dry
overnight.

Otherwise, persistence temps for overnight mins will be hard to beat
with readings ranging from the mid 60s in the eastern Ozarks to the
mid 70s in the urban heat island of STL City, with near 70 most
everywhere else.

TES

.LONG TERM:  (Friday through Next Thursday)
Issued at 314 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

Hot and dry weather pattern to continue across the region through
Sunday. Will see above normal temperatures with highs in the low to
mid 90s and overnight lows in the upper 60s to low 70s.

Some of the models are a bit slower with frontal boundary early next
week. It begins to move into forecast area then stalls out and
pushes back north. So best chances for rain will be over central and
northeast MO as well as west central IL Sunday night through
Tuesday. Temperatures Monday and Tuesday will depend on cloud cover
and precipitation. So could still see above normal temps each day.

Then on Wednesday, decent upper level shortwave slides southeast
into the Great Lakes region, which will help to finally push the
cold front through the forecast area. Timing is still a bit hard to
pin down, but most models have it south of forecast area by
Wednesday afternoon. Showers and thunderstorms will persist as
front moves through, tapering off by Thursday, though could still
see some post frontal activity, so kept slight chance pops on
Thursday. By next Thursday, highs will only be in the upper 70s
to low 80s with overnight lows in the upper 50s to low 60s.

Byrd

&&

.AVIATION:  (For the 00z TAFs through 00z Friday Evening)
Issued at 525 PM CDT Thu Sep 3 2015

At the surface, high pressure centered over the wester Ohio Valley
will maintain control of the weather. Dry, VFR weather with a
southerly wind. Will put some fog in for SUS, primarly since they
had it last night: persistence wins.

Specifics for KSTL: little change to the forecast. Dry, southerly
wind, VFR. Some cumulus for the afternoon.

JPK

&&

.LSX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES:
MO...NONE.
IL...NONE.
&&

$$

WFO LSX



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