Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Pueblo, CO

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FXUS65 KPUB 061118
AFDPUB

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Pueblo CO
418 AM MST Tue Dec 6 2016

.SHORT TERM...(Today and tonight)
Issued at 343 AM MST Tue Dec 6 2016

Currently...Brisk westerly flow across the region this morning as
one upper system moves east across the Dakotas, and another upper
low drops down into the Pacific NW. Light snow has been reported
intermittently across the central mts, otherwise much of the CWA is
mostly clear with just some clouds along the New Mexico state line
and the central mts. As of 330 am temps have dropped into the teens
across the forecast area.

Today and tonight...Brisk westerly flow will continue across the
region over the next 24 hrs. The next upper low dropping down across
the Pacific NW will approach the state today, increasing available
moisture across the western and northern sections of the state by
this afternoon. The system will then continue east across MT and WY
through tomorrow. Therefore, no a lot of pcpn expected this morning
for the forecast area save for the central mts. By this afternoon
snow will start to spread across the Continental DVD, then reach the
eastern mts by late afternoon. Through the first half of the day,
sfc winds are forecast to be southerly to southeasterly across the
plains, which should keep the pcpn pinned to the higher terrain.
However, by this evening sfc winds will swing around to a more
northerly direction as the H7 low shifts into northeastern
Colorado. This northerly sfc flow will serve to produce colder
temps and snowfall across the Palmer DVD and Pikes Peak region,
which some light spillover for the plains. Snowfall amounts are
expected to be very light for the plains, while Northern El Paso
County may see up to 3 inches of new snow, and even higher amounts
are possible for Teller County and Pikes Peak. Travel over
Monument Hill tonight through tomorrow morning will be a
challenge. Look for high temps in the 30s today, then dropping
down into the single digits tonight. Ongoing winter wx highlights
through the near term look reasonable and needed no adjustment,
though the ending time has been extended slightly. Moore

.LONG TERM...(Wednesday through Monday)
Issued at 343 AM MST Tue Dec 6 2016

...Light snow for Wednesday and bitter cold through mid week...

Upper trof axis shifts eastward across CO on Wednesday allowing a
deeper surge of cold air to spread southward across the plains
during the day.  Snow will already be ongoing across the Pikes Peak
region with model cross-sections showing potential for banded snow
during the morning across this area.  None of the models are
particularly heavy with the snowfall Wednesday morning but with
potential for travel impacts through the morning commute will
maintain the Winter Weather Advisory for the Pikes Peak region and
extend the duration through noon. Best moisture then spreads
southward into the remainder of the southeast mountains Wednesday
afternoon...though by that time best dynamics with the system has
already moved eastward. With weak shallow low level upslope and
saturation likely in cold arctic airmass...this should allow for a
decent shot at light snow for the lower eastern slopes of the Wets
and Sangres by afternoon...and have increased pops for these areas.
Once again...amounts will be light and confined to locations
mainly west of I-25. Rest of the plains may end up seeing
flurries at best. Temperatures on Wednesday will top out in the
upper teens to lower 20s across the lower elevations...with single
digits above and below zero for the mountains. Gusty north winds
through the day will result in the single digit wind chills across
the plains...so expect a really raw day.

Scattered snow showers will linger through the evening along the
lower eastern slopes with clouds diminishing Wednesday night.  with
H7 temps in the -15C to -17C should see low temperatures drop into
the single digits above and below zero...with negative teens across
the high valleys and mtn locations.  Fortunately the winds decrease
but could still be looking at some patchy windy chill advisory
values across the higher mountains Wednesday night.

Thursday remains cold with surface high entrenched across the plains
and sfc winds shifting around from the southeast on its western
periphery. We should start to see the cold airmass recede eastward
Thursday night as zonal flow aloft increases ahead of the next
system moving through the western U.S. and lee trof redevelops.  Moisture
will increase along the continental divide again Thursday night
with snow ramping up for the central mountains.

Friday will be breezy and warmer with snow continuing along the
continental divide. GFS sends another upper trof and cold front
through the area Sat/Saturday night...though system doesn`t appear
as amplified or as cold as the previous one. ECMWF is less
amplified than GFS so perhaps even less of a chance for
precipitation east of the mountains. Remainder of the extended
looks warm and windy with strong zonal flow over the area. -KT

&&

.AVIATION...(For the 12Z TAFS through 12Z Wednesday morning)
Issued at 343 AM MST Tue Dec 6 2016

Very gusty W-SW winds are forecast to develop over the higher mt
passes this afternoon, especially over the southern Sangres and
Eastern San Juans. Gusts of 40-45 kts will develop by 20z, and last
through the evening and overnight hrs.

KALS: VFR conditions are forecast over the next 24 hrs. Snow
is expected to develop over the surrounding mts between 17-19z.

KPUB: VFR conditions expected over the next 24 hrs.

KCOS: VFR conditions are expected through 00z, though snow will be
developing over the mts directly to the west by 20z. Sfc winds will
become northerly and gusty at times with gusts of 20-25 kts by 04-
06z. Light snow and lower cigs will move into the vcnty of KCOS
between 02z-04z, producing MVFR to IFR conditions.

&&

.PUB WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
Winter Weather Advisory from 6 PM this evening to noon MST
Wednesday for COZ081-082-084.

Winter Weather Advisory from 3 PM this afternoon to 6 AM MST
Wednesday for COZ058>060.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...MOORE
LONG TERM...KT
AVIATION...MOORE


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