Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 212337
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
737 PM EDT THU AUG 21 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
THE POSSIBILITY OF HEAVY PRECIPITATION WILL CONTINUE OVERNIGHT AND
TOMORROW WITH ABUNDANT MOISTURE...WAVERING WARM FRONT...AND A
SHORTWAVE. HIGH PRESSURE WILL TRY TO NOSE IN FROM THE NORTHEAST
EARLY NEXT WEEK AS UPPER RIDGE BUILDS.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH FRIDAY/...
WARM FRONT CONTINUES TO OSCILLATE NORTH AND SOUTH OVER THE THE AREA
TONIGHT.  A LARGE AREA OF PRECIPITATION HAS MOVED SOUTHEAST OUT OF
THE AREA...HOWEVER...SHOWERS ARE STILL POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT.  CHANCES
OF PRECIPITATION INCREASE THROUGH FRIDAY AS THE WARM FRONT LIFTS BACK TO THE
NORTH AND A SHORTWAVE TRAVERSES THE AREA. INSTABILITY WILL BE
SUFFICIENT FOR SOME THUNDER.  PROFILES ARE SOGGY WITH PWATS
HOVERING NEAR 2 INCHES SO EXPECT ANY STORMS THAT FORM TO HAVE
HEAVY DOWNPOURS.

FOG WILL BE POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...PARTICULARLY IN AREAS WHERE RAIN
HAS FALLEN AND IN VALLEYS.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
WILL BEGIN TO SEE A DRIER REGIME AS UPPER HEIGHTS BUILD INTO AREA.
STILL HAVE SOME SHRA/TSRA FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY WITH ONLY
SMALL CHANCES ON SUNDAY. TEMPS BLENDED IN FROM CONSENSUS AND
INHERITED NUMBERS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
UPPER RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO AREA BUT THE OPPRESSIVE HEAT
SHOULD STAY W OF THE AREA. HOWEVER...WE WILL STILL BE CONTENDING
WITH THE MUGGIES WITH TEMPS RUNNING NEAR NORMAL TO PERHAPS
SLIGHTLY ABOVE. A FRONT APPROACHES LONG ABOUT THURSDAY WITH
INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHRA/TSRA.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
PRECIPITATION IS POSSIBLE OVERNIGHT...WITH SOME BREAKS.  KEPT MVFR
CONDITIONS  FOR MUCH OF THE NIGHT FOR ALL SITES...HOWEVER...IT IS
POSSIBLE THAT CEILINGS COULD DROP WITH LOW LEVEL MOISTURE AND IN ANY
AREAS OF PRECIPITATION.   FOG DEVELOPMENT IS UNCERTAIN AS THERE WILL
BE THE CHANCE FOR A PUFF OF WIND AND SOME CLOUD COVER...BUT EXPECT
TO SEE AREAS OF DENSE FOG IN PROTECTED VALLEYS AND IN AREAS WHERE
PRECIPITATION HAS OCCURRED.

MORE PRECIPITATION TOMORROW WITH THE PASSAGE OF A SHORTWAVE COULD
LEAD TO IFR CONDITIONS...ESPECIALLY IN AREAS WITH HEAVY RAIN.

LIGHT SOUTHWEST SFC FLOW...WILL BECOME NEARLY CALM TONIGHT WHILE
FLOW ALOFT CONTINUES LIGHT TO MODERATE WEST TO NORTHWEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW TO MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR IS POSSIBLE BUT DIFFICULT TO TIME IN
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH TONIGHT. AREAS OF POST RAIN FOG
AND LOW CLOUD MAY BE MORE PREVALENT THAN CODED.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            FRI 08/22/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M    H    M    M    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SATURDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN ANY ROUND OF CONVECTION FRI INTO THE
WEEKEND.  LATE NIGHT AND EARLY MORNING POST RAIN FOG AND STRATUS
ALSO POSSIBLE.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...30
NEAR TERM...LS
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...LS







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