Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 231910
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
210 PM EST Mon Jan 23 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A low pressure system passes overhead this afternoon and to the
east tonight. Progressively colder mid and late week with
passage of a cold front and lingering northwest flow.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 100 PM Monday...

Main concern is prolonged rainfall causing isolated flooding
issues as a system moves up the East Coast. Radar showing a lot
of bright banding, so you cannot trust any radar-derived
precipitation. Most rainfall gage amounts thusfar have been
under an inch and a half in 6 hours. Even this is causing a few
creeks to rise out of their banks, but there have been very few
reports of issues. Rain should continue this afternoon before
decreasing tonight as the system moves north. Cold air will pool
in and turn the rain to snow in the mountains and even right
now Snowshoe is experiencing snow.

Dry slot is beginning to nudge into the WV mountains so do not
expect much in the way of snowfall amounts in our counties. An
additional inch or so possible.

Have an SPS out for rainfall in the south of WV - may need a few
more of these as wave lifts north and training occurs.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TUESDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

Any lingering precip will taper off quickly Tuesday night as
moisture thins and upper ridging moves in. With that upper ridge
in place Wednesday, looking at another warm day. Kept POPs out
for the most part Wednesday, although do have some low end POPs
sneaking in late in the day ahead of a cold front. That quick
moving cold front will move through Wednesday night with
showers. Cold air then filters in behind the front with a
transition to snow showers... first at higher elevations, but
the snow level will lower through the day Thursday. Do have a
couple inches of snow accumulation in the northern mountains above
3000 feet by late Thursday afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 200 PM Monday...

Theme of the long term is persistent northwest flow driving on
and off snow showers into the weekend. Models showing several
upper level shortwaves will transition across, which should
cause waxing and waning POPs as each moves through. Confidence
in timing any individual impulse is fairly low at this point,
however both GFS and ECMWF show one Friday night into Saturday
morning and another Saturday night. Have some higher chance POPs
with each of these, but even between impulses maintain slight
chance to low chance POPs with the northwest flow.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 1230 PM Monday...

System slides through the area today bringing widespread MVFR
conditions with intermittent IFR and/or VFR. Trended TAFs
downward as system passes but improve conditions as it moves off
to the north.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z TUESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Low to Medium

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Observations likely to fluctuate in rain
and low ceilings. Amendments likely.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    L    M    L    L    L    M    M    M    M    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    M    M    M    H    M    M    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    L    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    H    L    M    L    M    M    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L

AFTER 18Z TUESDAY...
No widespread IFR weather is expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JW/MZ
NEAR TERM...JW
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JW



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