Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 280534
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1234 AM EST FRI NOV 28 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER LOW LEVELS WITH NORTHWEST FLOW/UPSLOPE SNOW SHOWERS THROUGH
TONIGHT. HIGH PRESSURE FRIDAY AND SATURDAY. ANOTHER SYSTEM SUNDAY
INTO MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
850 TEMPERATURES BECOMING MORE EFFICIENT FOR CRYSTAL GROWTH IN THE
SATURATED MOISTURE MOSTLY AOB 7 THSD FT. 00Z SOUNDINGS HAVE PIT
DOWN TO MINUS 11C Q AND ILN DOWN TO MINUS 10C. THAT 850 MB
THERMAL TROF PASSES AROUND 12Z-13Z FRIDAY.

CONSIDERING THE COLDER TEMPERATURES AND THE FLUFF FACTOR...POSTED
AN OVERNIGHT WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR RANDOLPH COUNTY. HAVE AN
INCH OR LESS OF ACCUMULATION FOR MOST OF THE LOWLANDS IN WEST
VIRGINIA.

HELD ONTO SOME FLAKES LONGER OVER THE CENTRAL WV MOUNTAINS ON
FRIDAY MID AND LATE MORNING. OTHERWISE...STRATOCUMULUS CEILINGS
WILL EVAPORATE BUT MID DECK INCREASING FROM THE WNW. SO CLOUD
COVER A TOUGH FORECAST ON FRIDAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST TO START THE PERIOD...WITH NW
FLOW ALOFT KEEPING SOME CLOUDS ACROSS THE FORECAST AREA. THINGS DRY
OUT SATURDAY UNDER ZONAL FLOW...THEN TURNING MORE SOUTHWESTERLY BY
LATE IN THE DAY WHICH BEGINS RETURNING LOW LEVEL MOISTURE. HOWEVER
THE ATMOSPHERE REMAINS VERY DRY ABOVE AROUND 800MB. WITH THIS DRY
AIR ALOFT IN PLACE...DELAYED ONSET OF ANY POPS INTO SATURDAY NIGHT.
ENVISION A LOW STRATUS DECK IN PLACE...WITH PERIODS OF LIGHT RAIN
ACROSS WESTERN CWA SATURDAY NIGHT AND SUNDAY.

USED A RAW CONSENSUS BLEND FOR LOWS...WITH A SLIGHTLY NON-DIURNAL
TREND FRIDAY NIGHT AS SURFACE FLOW BECOMES SOUTHERLY. BLENDED
BIAS-CORRECTED ECMWF INTO HIGHS.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
USED A BLEND OF THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AND THE CURRENT FORECAST.
NEXT FRONTAL BOUNDARY PUSHES INTO THE REGION SUNDAY NIGHT INTO
MONDAY. MODELS THEN SHOW A WAVE MOVING ALONG THE FRONT FOR
TUESDAY...BUT QUESTIONABLE HOW MUCH OF THAT EFFECTS THE CENTRAL
APPALACHIANS. ECMWF AND GFS THEN DIVERGE CONSIDERABLY FOR WEDNESDAY
AND THURSDAY. USING THE ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN BRINGS A FRONT THROUGH
ON WEDNESDAY WITH SOME UPSLOPE SNOW POSSIBLE BEHIND THE FRONT
WEDNESDAY NIGHT INTO THURSDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
WIDESPREAD MVFR/IFR CONDITIONS IN LIGHT SNOW SHOWERS...MAINLY
ACROSS WV AND SOUTHWEST VA. EXPECT -SHSN TO CONTINUE ACROSS
LOWLANDS THROUGH AROUND 12Z...AND LINGERING ACROSS THE HIGHER
TERRAIN THROUGH AROUND 15Z. MOST LOWLAND AIRPORT SITES SHOULD LIFT
TO VFR 14-15Z...WITH HIGHER TERRAIN SITES LIFTING TO VFR AFTER
18Z. LIGHT WEST TO NORTHWEST SURFACE WINDS...BECOMING LIGHT
SOUTHWEST AFTER 15Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS
THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING THE BREAK UP/SCATTERING OF THE
MVFR CEILINGS ON FRIDAY MAY VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                   FRI 11/28/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EST 1HRLY       01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    M    M    M    H    M    M    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
IFR MAY DEVELOP IN AREAS OF RAIN SUNDAY NIGHT OR MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY UNTIL 7 AM EST THIS MORNING FOR WVZ047.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/MZ/26
NEAR TERM...KTB
SHORT TERM...MZ
LONG TERM...RPY
AVIATION...SL








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