Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 022345
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
730 PM EDT TUE SEP 2 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
FRONT BRINGS SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS INTO TONIGHT...BEFORE
DISSIPATING. WEAK HIGH PRESSURE WITH MORE STABLE AIR WEDNESDAY INTO
THURSDAY. MOISTURE INCREASES FRIDAY NIGHT-SATURDAY AHEAD OF FRONT.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING/...
UPDATED FORECAST TO RAISE POPS THIS EVENING IN SOUTHERN AND EASTERN
WV AND SOUTHWEST VA. LATEST RUN OF THE MESO NAM SEEMS TO HAVE A
DECENT HANDLE ON THE SITUATION...SO USED A COMBINATION OF IT AND
RADAR FOR THE UPDATE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /5 AM WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH FRIDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES. STILL IN THE WEAK LOW LEVEL FLOW WEDNESDAY NIGHT
INTO THURSDAY. SOME SE COMPONENT TO WHAT LOW LEVEL FLOW WE HAVE...
WILL LEAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ALONG THE EASTERN SLOPES.
OTHERWISE MORE STABLE FORECAST SOUNDINGS.  WILL INCLUDE SOME LATE
NIGHT FOG FOR THE MOST VULNERABLE SPOTS.

STILL KEPT DEW POINTS HIGHER THAN MOST MOS GUIDANCE DUE TO THE WET
VEGETATION.

WAS A BIT SLOWER INCREASING POPS ON FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
NO MAJOR CHANGES FROM OUR EXTENDED FORECAST FROM 24 HOURS AGO.
ANOTHER FRONT COMING INTO AHEAD ON DAY 4/SATURDAY AND TRYING TO SLOW
DOWN AND WEAKEN.

AS USUAL...THE MODELS CONTINUE TO DEVIATE ON THEIR RUN TO RUN
FRONTAL SPEED. THE ECMWF HAD A FASTER TREND TODAY THAN YESTERDAY ON
DRYING THE NORTHERN COUNTIES OUT OVER THE WEEKEND. MEANWHILE...THE
GFS HAS SLOWED DOWN CONSIDERABLY. ALL IN ALL...THE LIKELY POPS
SATURDAY AND PREVIOUS FORECAST FROM YESTERDAY STILL LOOKS LIKE A
REASONABLE COMPROMISE.

SLOW DRYING TREND SUNDAY AFTERNOON INTO MONDAY.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS WILL PUSH EASTWARD OVERNIGHT...MOVING OUT
OF THE REGION. MODELS SHOWING A STRATUS DECK DEVELOPING LATER
TONIGHT. IF THIS DECK DEVELOPS TOO LATE...THEN SOME FOG COULD BE
COMBINED WITH THE STRATUS DECK. IF THIS DECK DOES NOT
DEVELOP...EXPECT DENSE FOG. CONFIDENCE ON THE FOG/STRATUS SITUATION
IS LOW. CLOUDS/FOG WILL LIFT INTO A CUMULUS DECK ON
WEDNESDAY...BECOMING VFR IN THE AFTERNOON.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH EARLY THIS EVENING...THEN LOW THROUGH
MORNING...THEN HIGH WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS COULD VARY.
ONSET OF FOG OR LOW CLOUDS OVERNIGHT COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            WED 09/03/14
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L    H    L    L    L

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
IFR IN RIVER AND VALLEY FOG AGAIN EARLY THURSDAY MORNING.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...FLASH FLOOD WATCH UNTIL 1 AM EDT WEDNESDAY FOR WVZ015-024>026-
     034>037.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...KTB
LONG TERM...KTB
AVIATION...RPY









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