Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS61 KRLX 051033
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
633 AM EDT THU MAY 5 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
A LARGE UPPER LEVEL LOW BRINGS COOL AND UNSETTLED WEATHER FOR
THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. WARM FRONT SATURDAY. ANOTHER COLD FRONT
SUNDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
COLD FRONT IS STILL MOVING ACROSS OUR REGION AS OF 3 AM WITH
SCATTERED SHOWERS ONGOING ACROSS EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA. DRIER AIR
HAS MOVED INTO THE OHIO VALLEY BEHIND THE FRONT WITH SKIES
ACTUALLY CLEARING ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY. HOWEVER...THE CLEARING
WILL BE SHORT LIVED AS PRECIPITATION WRAPS AROUND AN UPPER LOW
TRACKING TO OUR SOUTH TODAY AND RAIN WILL PUSH BACK IN FROM THE
NORTHEAST. FOR MOST OF THE DAY WE CAN EXPECT WIDESPREAD SHOWERS
ACROSS THE EASTERN HALF OF THE FORECAST AREA...WITH SCATTERED
SHOWERS THROUGH THE OHIO VALLEY UNTIL AT LEAST THIS EVENING. THE
UPPER LOW WILL THEN PULL TO OUR EAST TONIGHT AND CONDITIONS WILL
SLOWLY IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST INTO FRIDAY. WE WILL HAVE TO
WATCH TODAY IF A PERSISTENT ENHANCED BAND OF PRECIPITATION
DEVELOPS ALONG THE APPALACHIANS...AS THIS COULD CAUSE SOME WATER
WATER ISSUES. WE WILL CONTINUE TO MENTION THIS IN THE HWO THROUGH
TODAY.

WITH THE LARGE TROUGH OVER THE REGION WE CAN EXPECT TEMPERATURES
TO REMAIN BELOW NORMAL...WITH HIGHS GENERALLY IN THE 50S TODAY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
GENERALLY STAYING AWAY FROM THE NAM TO END THE WEEK. UPPER LEVEL
CLOSED LOW WILL SLOWLY LIFT INTO NEW ENGLAND FOR THE SHORT
TERM...WITHOUT ANY MAJOR CHANGES TO THIS EVOLUTION FROM PREVIOUS
MODEL RUNS. WARM FRONT IS QUICK TO FOLLOW THE EXIT OF THE UPPER
LEVEL LOW...AND WILL BRING IN LOW CHANCES FOR SHOWERS WITH THIS
FEATURE. 850MB TEMPERATURES SHOW A TIGHTLY PACKED GRADIENT WITH THIS
WARM FRONT...WHICH COULD LEAD TO A QUICK BURST OF WARMING IN THE
LATER AFTERNOON HOURS ON SATURDAY. NEXT ROUND OF SHOWERS MOVES IN
WITH THE COLD FRONT...INCREASING IN COVERAGE INTO THE BEGINNING OF
THE LONG TERM FORECAST.

GOING CONSERVATIVE WITH THE QPF THROUGH THE PERIOD. SHOWERS SHOULD
BECOME MORE SCATTERED ALONG THE MOUNTAINS WITH THE EXITING OF THE
LOW THURSDAY NIGHT...AND WILL ONLY HAVE MODEST AMOUNTS ON THE FRONT
END OF THE NEXT SYSTEM.

NO SEVERE THREAT AT THIS TIME.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
FOR THE EXTENDED...THE PATTERN REMAINS PROGRESSIVE BEGINNING WITH
THE COLD FRONT SATURDAY NIGHT. SHOULD BARELY CLEAR THE SOUTHERN
ZONES OF THE CWA...AND THEN LIFT BACK AS A WARM FRONT SUNDAY
NIGHT/MONDAY. IN THE END...WILL NOT SEE ANY REAL SIGNIFICANT CHANGE
OF AIRMASS...WITH FREQUENT CHANCES FOR SHOWERS/STORMS THROUGH THE
MIDDLE OF NEXT WEEK. WILL HAVE TO WATCH THE ACCUMULATION OF RAIN
THROUGH THE 7 DAY PERIOD...BUT AS OF RIGHT NOW...WATER CONCERNS ARE
RELATIVELY LOW.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
AN UPPER LEVEL LOW WILL BRING SHOWERS ACROSS THE REGION TODAY AND
MVFR TO IFR CONDITIONS CAN BE EXPECTED. THE BEST CONDITIONS TODAY
WILL LIKELY BE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY...BUT LOW CLOUDS ARE
DESTINED FOR JUST ABOUT THE ENTIRE REGION.  FAIRLY LOW CONFIDENCE
ON WHEN THE CEILINGS WILL LIFT TODAY...HOWEVER CONDITIONS SHOULD
IMPROVE FROM WEST TO EAST TODAY.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: TIMING OF WRAPAROUND SHOWERS AND MVFR/IFR
CONDITIONS MAY VARY TODAY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EDT 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L    L

AFTER 12Z FRIDAY...
UNSETTLED WEATHER WITH UPPER LEVEL COULD CONTINUE TO BRING MVFR
AND IFR CONDITIONS AT TIMES INTO THE WEEKEND.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/MPK/26
NEAR TERM...MPK
SHORT TERM...ARJ
LONG TERM...26
AVIATION...MPK



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.