Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 010703
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
300 AM EDT FRI AUG 1 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCES CROSS THE CENTRAL APPALACHIANS TODAY.
A NEW UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SETTLES OVER THE MIDDLE OHIO VALLEY THIS
WEEKEND...AND THEN PULLS OUT EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
WILL BE TRACKING S SYS ROUNDING BASE OF MEAN TROF THIS MORNING AND
TRACKING THRU NC/VA PIEDMONT TODAY. WHILE WEAK SFC CYCLOGENESIS
MAY OCCUR ALONG THE COAST...CLOSED LOW IN THE H85 TO H7 LAYER WILL
TRACK ACROSS THE APPALACHIANS. THIS WILL INCREASE THE SE LOW LEVEL FLOW
HELPING TO TRANSPORT ATLANTIC MOISTURE W. WHAT THIS MEANS IS AN
UNSETTLED DAY E OF THE MOUNTAINS. THE NAM SEEMS OVERLY AGGRESSIVE
WITH MAGNITUDE OF LLJ AND W EXTENT OF RAINS...ALONG THE I79
CORRIDOR. GFS...HI RES WRF MODELS AND REGIONAL GEM FOCUS MUCH OF THE
HEAVIER CONVECTION CLOSER TO THE COAST AS THE DAY PROGRESSES...ALONG
THE COASTAL FRONT. SO WHILE SOME STEADIER RAINS MAY SNEAK INTO SW
VA AND SE WV PLATEAU THIS MORNING...THINK BULK OF THE PRECIP SHIFTS TO
COAST TODAY. HAVING SAID THAT...STILL A GOOD BET OF SCT SHRA
ACROSS THE HIGH TERRAIN...WITH CHANCES TAILING OFF ACROSS THE
LOWLANDS. STILL SEEING SIGNS OF CONVECTION FIRING ALONG A BOUNDARY
THAT WILL BE SHIFTING W INTO SE OH IN THE AFTERNOON. SO HAVE
THUNDER IN ACROSS W LOWLANDS/NE KY/SE OH LATER TODAY.

TONIGHT MAY BE RELATIVELY QUITE WITH DEEPER MOISTURE HAVING PULLED
E OF THE CWA. GIVEN VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUD COVER
EXPECTED...DENSE FOG TONIGHT TRICKY.

STAYED CLOSE TO IN HOUSE LOCAL MOS AND MAV GUIDANCE FOR HIGHS
TODAY WITH WARMER THEME ALONG AND W OF OH RIVER. STAYED ON WARMER
SIDE OF GUIDANCE TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
MODELS SHOW AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH SLOWLY MOVING ACROSS THE FORECAST
AREA OVER THE WEEKEND. EVEN THOUGH BEST CHANCES OF PRECIPITATION
SHOULD BE WITH AFTERNOON HEATING...THE TROUGH WILL SUPPLY SOME UPPER
LEVEL DYNAMICS...SO WILL KEEP SOME POPS FOR SATURDAY NIGHT.

AS THE TROUGH MOVES EASTWARD...MODEL SHOWING MOISTURE DECREASING IN
THE WEST. BY MONDAY...LOOKS LIKE POPS WILL BE CONFINED TO THE
MOUNTAINS.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE GRADUALLY BUILDING IN FROM THE WEST FOR THE START OF
NEXT WEEK...FOR A BRIEF BREAK IN MUCH OF THE PRECIPITATION.
HOWEVER...HEAT AND HUMIDITY WILL BE ON THE INCREASE THROUGHOUT NEXT
WEEK...AS SOUTHERLY FLOW INCREASES AND HEIGHTS BUILD OUT AHEAD OF AN
APPROACHING STORM SYSTEM...WHICH WILL SPREAD SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS BACK INTO THE AREA TOWARDS THE END OF THE EXTENDED
PERIOD. TEMPS LOOK LIKE THEY WILL FINALLY RISE TO NORMAL OR EVEN
ABOVE NORMAL FOR THIS TIME OF YEAR.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
HI CLOUDS PLAYING HAVOC ON FOG FORECAST THRU 12Z. HAD TO ROLL WITH
SOME IFR OR WORSE TEMPO GROUPS AT SOME OF THE TERMINALS TO ACCOUNT
FOR THE HOLES IN THE CIRRUS. NEEDLESS TO SAY...EXPECT VSBY TO
BOUNCE AROUND BEFORE TRYING TO SETTLE DOWN BLO IFR IN THE 09 TO
12Z TIME FRAME KCRW/KPKB AND PERHAPS KHTS.

OTHERWISE...HAVE LOWERING CIGS TODAY E SLOPES WITH SOME MVFR
STRATUS GETTING INTO KBKW IN INCREASING MOIST SE FLOW. AS THE
UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE APPROACHES...SHRA AND AREAS OF -RA MAY SKIRT SW VA/SE
WV THIS MORNING POSSIBLY AFFECTING KBKW TERMINAL BUT KEPT
PREDOMINATE VSBY IN VFR FOR THIS ISSUANCE. OTHERWISE HAVE
PREDOMINATE VFR CONDITIONS ELSEWHERE TDY AND THIS EVENING WITH
A SHRA MENTION. SOME AFTERNOON CONVECTION POSSIBLE KHTS/KPKB AFTER
18Z.

PRECIP CHANCES WIND DOWN TONIGHT BUT WITH VARYING DEGREES OF CLOUD
COVER...CONFIDENCE TOO LOW FOR PREVAILING DENSE FOG ATTM.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: MEDIUM TO HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG MAY VARY THRU MORNING.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              FRI 08/01/14
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    L    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    M    M    M    L    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 06Z SATURDAY...
BRIEF IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE IN AFTERNOON AND EVENING THUNDERSTORMS
SATURDAY AND SUNDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30
NEAR TERM...30
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...30









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