Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 281017
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
506 AM EST WED JAN 28 2015

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE TODAY. LOW PRESSURE THURSDAY. UPSLOPE SNOW LIKELY
THURSDAY NIGHT INTO FRIDAY NORTHEAST MOUNTAINS. HIGH PRESSURE
SATURDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BUILD OVER THE REGION TODAY...ERODING
THE REMAINING CLOUDS THIS MORNING. WITH THE CORE OF THE LOW LEVEL
COLD AIR IN LAYERS NOT REPRESENTED WELL BY THE COARSER RESOLUTION
MODELS...WILL STAY CLOSER TO THE MET MOS FOR HIGHS TODAY.

FOR TONIGHT...HIGHER CLOUDS PUSH INTO THE FORECAST AREA IN ADVANCE
OF THE NEXT SYSTEM. WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO BE CALM EARLY IN THE NIGHT
IN THE EASTERN COUNTIES...SO EXPECT SOME DECENT RADIATION. LATER IN
THE NIGHT WINDS SHOULD PICK UP. THIS MAKES LOW TEMPERATURES
ESPECIALLY TRICKY. WILL GO TOWARD THE WARMER MOS IN THE WEST WHERE
CLOUDS AND WINDS WILL MOVE IN FIRST...AND GO TOWARD THE COLDER SIDE
OF MOS IN THE EAST WHERE SOME SNOW IS ON THE GROUND AND DECENT
RADIATION EXPECTED EARLY.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
PRECIPITATION SHOULD OVERSPREAD THE REGION FROM THE WEST DURING THE
DAY THURSDAY ALONG A WARM FRONT. THERE WILL QUITE A BIT DRY AIR IN
THE LOW LEVELS TO OVERCOME...WITH INITIALLY VIRGA...THEN A VERY
BRIEFLY LIGHT WINTRY MIX FOR SE OH AND PERHAPS N WV LOWLANDS BEFORE
CHANGING TO RAIN. RAIN FOR NE KY/REMAINDER OF WV LOWLANDS...BUT IF
THE PRECIP COMES IN SOONER THAN FORECAST...THEN EVEN HERE A VERY
VERY VERY BRIEF MIX IS POSSIBLE AT ONSET. THE N MOUNTAINS SHOULD
HOLD IN SNOW AS PREDOMINATE PRECIP TYPE WHERE A COUPLE INCHES ARE
POSSIBLE BY EVENING. HIGHS SHOULD SPIKE WELL INTO THE 40S OUTSIDE OF
THE MOUNTAINS.

THE ACTUAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL BE TRAVERSING WELL N OF THE CWA
WITH TRAILING COLD FRONT SWEEPING THRU THURSDAY EVENING...SO CWA
WOULD BRIEFLY BE IN WARM SECTOR. EXPECT PRECIP TO CHANGE OVER TO
SNOW SHOWERS QUICKLY THURSDAY EVENING AS DECENT CAA FOLLOWS FROPA.
APPEARS JUST ENOUGH MOISTURE TO OVERLAP GOOD LIFT IN UPSLOPE REGIONS
THURSDAY NIGHT FOR SEVERAL INCHES OF SNOW. CODED UP A GENERAL 2 TO 7
INCHES AND KEPT N MOUNTAINS IN HWO FOR POSSIBLE ADV. THIS REMAINS
CONSISTENT WITH THE DAY SHIFTS NUMBERS AS WELL AS WHAT WE CODED UP
LAST NIGHT. TOUGH TO FIGURE IF THEY WILL MEET THE 12 HR CRITERIA
GIVEN LONG DURATION. ELSEWHERE...THINK SOME COATINGS TO ONE INCHES
WILL BE REALIZED OUTSIDE OF THE MOUNTAINS. LOWS WILL DIP INTO THE
20S MOST PLACES.

A STRONG HIGH BUILDS IN FROM THE NW AS FRIDAY ROLLS ON...CONFINING
THE SNOW SHOWERS OVER THE N MOUNTAINS INTO THE AFTERNOON. IT MAY BE
TOUGH TO SCT OUT THE STRATOCU GIVEN CAA IN THE LOW LEVELS. UNDERCUT
GUIDANCE A BIT N ZONES...STAYING CLOSE TO COLDER NAM ELSEWHERE. WILL
GENERALLY BE IN THE UPPER 20S SW VA/NE KY/S WV...LOW TO MID 20S SE
OH/N WV LOWLANDS...WITH TEENS LOW 20S IN THE MOUNTAINS.

THE HIGH BUILDS OVER THE AREA FRIDAY NIGHT AND THE N MOUNTAINS
HOLDING ON TO A BIT OF STRATOCU AND FLURRIES IN THE EVENING. ALL OF
THE GUIDANCE PUTS THE AREA IN LOW TO MID TEENS...WITH NEAR 0 IN THE
N MOUNTAINS.

FOR SATURDAY...THE SURFACE HIGH WILL SLOWLY SLIDE OFF TO THE EAST.
THE LOW LEVEL COLD THERMAL TROF WILL RETREAT OFF TO THE N...BUT
STILL KEEPING SE OH AND N WV BELOW FREEZING WHILE S HALF OF THE CWA
GETS INTO THE MID 30S. EXPECT SOME SUN WITH EARLY...GIVING WAY TO AN
INCREASE IN CIRRUS IN THE AFTERNOON.

&&

.LONG TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES SATURDAY WITH SUNSHINE AND BELOW
NORMAL TEMPERATURES. THE NEXT SYSTEM AFFECTING US SUNDAY INTO
MONDAY IS A TWO FOLD EVENT. A WE HAVE SEEN SO OFTEN THIS WINTER...WE
HAVE A SPLIT FLOW REGIME IN WHICH WE CANNOT QUITE PHASE THE
NORTHERN STREAM AND SOUTHERN STREAM. THE MAIN FEATURE WILL BE A
SHEARING OUT UPPER TROUGH AND ASSOCIATED LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM FROM
THE SOUTHERN ROCKIES...LIFTING NORTHEAST ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY
SUNDAY...IN ADVANCE OF A NORTHERN STREAM SHORT WAVE AND COLD FRONT
FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. WHILE THE MODELS DO NOT QUITE PHASE THE
SYSTEMS...ALL FORECAST THE SURFACE LOW TO TRACK JUST TO OUR NORTH
SUNDAY. THIS WILL ALLOW ENOUGH WARM AIR NORTHWARD FOR PRIMARILY A
RAIN EVENT ON SUNDAY...ALTHOUGH INITIALLY THERE COULD BE SOME ICE
ESPECIALLY ON EAST FACING SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS. HOWEVER...THE
PRECIPITATION COULD BE GENERALLY SNOW OVER OUR FAR NORTHWEST
PORTIONS OF OUR SOUTHEAST OHIO COUNTIES AS THEY WILL BE CLOSE TO THE
TRACK OF THE LOW. IN ANY CASE...TEMPERATURES WILL STILL AVERAGE
BELOW NORMAL. GIVEN THE FAST FLOW ALOFT AND LACK OF PHASING...WILL
GO WITH THE FASTER GFS MODEL...WHICH TRACKS THE SURFACE LOW UP THRU
CENTRAL OHIO SUNDAY AND BRINGS THE FOLLOWING COLD FRONT RAPIDLY
ACROSS THE AREA SUNDAY NIGHT. RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW BEHIND THE
COLD FRONT SUNDAY NIGHT AND TAPER OFF FROM WEST TO EAST MONDAY...AS
MUCH COLDER AIR RUSHES BACK IN. LOOK FOR WELL BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES FOR EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.AVIATION /10Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
STRATUS DECK AND LIGHT SNOW WILL GRADUALLY DISSIPATE THIS
MORNING...WITH THE WESTERN SLOPES OF THE MOUNTAINS HOLDING THE
CLOUDS THE LONGEST. AFTER THE CLOUDS DISSIPATE...EXPECTED VFR
CONDITIONS THROUGH TONIGHT.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: LOW ON THE TIMING OF THE STRATUS DECK
DISSIPATING...OTHERWISE HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIO: TIMING OF CLEARING COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
EST 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
IFR CONDITIONS POSSIBLE THURSDAY/THURSDAY NIGHT ACROSS THE ENTIRE
REGION AND THEN IN THE MOUNTAIN COUNTIES ON FRIDAY MORNING IN SNOW
SWITCHING TO RAIN.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/JMV/30
NEAR TERM...RPY
SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM...JMV
AVIATION...RPY









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