Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 221141
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
641 AM EST Wed Nov 22 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A cold front exits east first thing this morning. High pressure
builds in tonight, and holds on through Friday. An cold front
crosses Saturday. High pressure Monday into Tuesday.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 640 AM Wednesday...

Front just exiting the forecast area. Slowed clearing a bit
later today into this evening.

As of 325 AM Wednesday...

A cold front, along with a narrow band of light rain right along
and immediately behind it, was moving east across the area
overnight. Just reaching the Ohio River as 3 AM approached, this
band will be in the mountains by dawn, and evolve into post
frontal upslope showers on the low level northwest flow that
ensues behind the front.

It will also be dawn before colder air changes the
precipitation over to snow in the mountains, with up to a half
an inch over the higher windward terrain after daybreak this
morning. One limiting factor will be lack of favored crystal
growth and even crystal presence temperatures, with moisture and
colder air remaining shallow even well behind the front.

The low inversion, near h85, persists through today, and then
lowers even farther tonight as a subsidence inversion, as high
pressure builds in. This brings into question timing of the
breaking up of the stratocu later today and tonight.

Temperatures fall behind the front early this morning, and then
recover little today. Kept forecast highs below guidance given
the inversion and weak late November insulation. Lows tonight
are close to guidance, which is lower than previous in the
mountains. Valley temperatures will fall below ridgetop
temperatures overnight where it clears.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 325 AM Wednesday...

No significant changes necessary to the short term period. High
pressure, with cooler, but dry weather will take hold for
Thanksgiving Day and Friday, with temperatures topping out in the
40s to 50s.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 325 AM Wednesday...

Another progressive system will affect the region over the weekend.
Rain and snow showers are expected to develop, particularly across
the north, as a cold front sweeps across the region. After a brief
lull in the precipitation later in the day Saturday and Saturday
night, outside of upslope rain and snow showers across the
mountains, a reinforcing short wave will bring another round of
precipitation for Sunday, along with an additional shot of cooler
air. Light accumulations are expected across the mountainous
counties. Dry and cool weather for the start of next week, with
moderating temperatures towards mid week.

&&

.AVIATION /12Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 105 AM Wednesday...

A cold front was just exiting the WV mountains as 12Z approached,
and an MVFR stratocu deck was filling in behind it. EKN may go
IFR for a time later this morning into this afternoon.
Improvement will take place this afternoon over most of the
lowlands, and the southern WV mountains, as this deck lifts and
scatters out. Improvement will take place tonight in and near
the northern WV mountains, as the deck scatters out. A
subsidence inversion will be lowering tonight so, if ceilings
persist, they will lower, and may go IFR.

Gusty northwest surface winds will diminish later this morning,
and become calm tonight, as high pressure builds across the
area. Moderate northwest flow aloft this morning will become
light north this afternoon, and then light west overnight
tonight.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z
THURSDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium to high.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Ceilings may go IFR in northeast WV /CKB
and EKN/ for a time this morning. Timing of lifting and break
up of MVFR stratocu this afternoon and evening could vary. BKW
and EKN ceilings could drop to near IFR tonight if the clouds do
not break up.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE               WED 11/22/17
UTC 1HRLY       10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21
EST 1HRLY       05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16
CRW CONSISTENCY  L    M    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    H    M    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    L    M    M    H    M    M    M    M    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    L    L    L    H    H    L    M    M    L    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  L    M    M    M    M    H    H    M    H    H    M    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    H    H    H    H    M    H    H    M    M    L    L

AFTER 12Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions expected.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM


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