Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 250643
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
243 AM EDT Tue Jul 25 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
High pressure will provide dry weather through at least
Wednesday. A Cold front may produce some storms late in the work
week. High pressure builds back in for the weekend with
improving weather expected.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 230am Tuesday...

The cold frontal boundary continues to push southeastward and
will progress far enough south to allow high pressure to build
down from the Great Lakes. This will allow us to enjoy the first
of what should be back-to-back days that remain dry, along with
cooler temperatures and a drier airmass. The only issue will be
early morning localized patchy fog and low clouds that linger
for a few hours past daybreak.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

Cooler and drier high pressure will be in control on Wednesday
before moving east Wednesday night and Thursday. As it does, SW
flow will increase, as will the head and humidity. Low pressure
approaches with its trailing cold front Thursday night into
Friday.  Scattered showers and storms will increase Thursday
well ahead of the front, especially over southeast Ohio and
northern West Virginia. Showers and storms will become more
widespread Thursday night and Friday morning as the cold front
slides southeast through the area. Behind the front, an
unusually cooler and drier Canadian airmass moves in during
Friday with showers and storms ending from northwest to
southeast.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
As of 230 AM Monday...

Long range models in good agreement with cooler and drier high
pressure building into the region Friday night through this
weekend. Temperatures should moderate each day under abundant
sunshine. Drier air with this high pressure will keep humidity
levels tolerable.  By Monday, the high shifts east with the
heat and humidity beginning to increase.

&&

.AVIATION /07Z TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 230 AM Tuesday...

Periods of IFR/LIFR in dense fog and/or low stratus will be
possible through at least 12Z. Any fog will dissipate by 13Z.

Kept persistence based on previous nights, fog across the
north, and stratus across the south.

Conditions improve by mid-morning, then widespread VFR
conditions expected for the rest of the day.

Likely will have the threat of mainly fog , with some low
stratus again Tuesday night...starting about or shortly after
06Z/Wed.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 06Z WEDNESDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Areas that get fog vs. stratus may differ
tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                              TUE 07/25/17
UTC 1HRLY       06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13   14   15   16   17
EDT 1HRLY       02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11   12   13
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    H    M
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    M    M    L    L    L    L    M    H    H    H    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    M    H    H    L

AFTER 06Z WEDNESDAY...

Brief periods of IFR conditions long thunderstorms likely Thursday
into Friday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...JS/99
NEAR TERM...99
SHORT TERM...JS
LONG TERM...JS
AVIATION...ARJ


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