Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 242312
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
712 PM EDT FRI OCT 24 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES TONIGHT. A MAINLY DRY COLD FRONT CROSSES
SATURDAY EVENING.  HIGH PRESSURE SUNDAY.  WARMER EARLY NEXT WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH SATURDAY/...
700 PM UPDATE...NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGES MADE.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...HIGH PRESSURE CONTINUES OVER THE
REGION THIS EVENING. AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE WILL THEN MOVE
THROUGH LATE TONIGHT INTO EARLY SATURDAY...JUST PROVIDING SOME
CLOUDS. WITH SOME WINDS LATE TONIGHT AND CLOUDS ALSO MOVING
IN...WENT TOWARD THE WARMER SIDE OF MOS IN SOUTHEAST OHIO. AN
APPROACHING COLD FRONT BRINGS SOME CLOUDS ON SATURDAY...BUT
SOUNDINGS INDICATE THAT MOISTURE IS TOO LIMITED FOR ANY
PRECIPITATION.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
ASIDE FROM SOME POST COLD FRONTAL SLIGHT CHANCE POPS IN THE
MOUNTAINS...SIG WX NIL IN THE SHORT TERM. THERE MAY NOT BE A CLOUD
IN THE SKY ON SUNDAY WITH HIGH PRESSURE SITUATED OVER THE OHIO
VALLEY AND CENTRAL APPALACHIANS. AS THIS SURFACE HIGH DRIFTS TO THE
EAST...FLOW TURNS SOUTHERLY AND WILL TAKE THE TEMPERATURES FOR
MONDAY WELL ABOVE NORMAL AS 500MB HEIGHTS CLIMB BACK OVER 580DKM IN
STRONG RIDGING. WITH 850MB TEMPERATURES TOPPING THE 16C MARK OVER
THE WESTERN ZONES...THINK 80 DEGREES ON MONDAY IS NOT OUT OF THE
QUESTION...AND HAVE UTILIZED THE HIGHER SIDE OF GUIDANCE.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
EXTENDED PERIODS BEGIN RATHER WARM AND END RATHER CHILLY. TUESDAY
THE AREA WILL BASKING IN WARM SW FLOW AMID BUILDING UPPER HEIGHTS.
HAVE TENTATIVELY CODED UP MID 70S BUT THIS MAY BE A BIT UNDERDONE.
THE WARMTH DOES NOT LAST THOUGH...AS A STRONG BUT MOISTURE
RESTRICTED COLD FRONT CROSSES MIDWEEK. APPEARS FRONT WILL SLOW
DOWN AS THE UPPER TROF BEGINS TO RETREAT. SO...HAVE WEDNESDAY THE
DAY FOR FROPA...WITH A SOMEWHAT NARROW FRONTAL ZONE OF SHRA MOVING
THRU. AREA CLEARS OUT FOR A NICE BUT COOLISH DAY ON THURSDAY.

ATTENTION THEN TURNS TO FRIDAY AND THE WEEKEND. MODELS ARE STILL
SHOWING VOLATILITY FROM RUN TO RUN WITH MAGNITUDE OF UPPER TROF
MOVING INTO THE REGION...WHICH INTERESTINGLY ENOUGH HAS SOME
ORIGINS FROM THE REMNANTS OF ANA IN THE E PACIFIC CURRENTLY. DID
NOT SWAY MUCH FROM WPC TO MAINTAIN SOME CONTINUITY FOR NEXT
WEEKEND. WILL BE WATCHING TO SEE IF THE MORE AMPLIFIED SOLUTIONS
EMERGE WHICH WOULD GIVE SOME UNSEASONABLE COLD AIR TO THE REGION.

&&

.AVIATION /23Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
A HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PROVIDE VFR CONDITIONS LATE THIS
EVENING. SOME PATCHY DENSE FOG IS EXPECTED LATE TONIGHT IN THE
PROTECTED VALLEYS OF SOUTHERN AND EASTERN WEST VIRGINIA AND
SOUTHWEST VIRGINIA. THAT FOG WILL DISSIPATE 12Z-14Z. CLOUDS WILL
BE ON THE INCREASE SATURDAY AS AN UPPER LEVEL DISTURBANCE MOVES
THROUGH. CANNOT RULE OUT A LIGHT SHOWER AND SOME MVFR CIGS WITH
THIS. HAVE SOME MVFR CIGS ENTERING FROM THE WEST LATE IN THE TAF PERIOD.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z SUNDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH...MEDIUM WITH THE FOG.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: FOG TIMING...DENSITY...AND LOCATIONS OVERNIGHT
COULD VARY.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
EDT 1HRLY       16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 00Z SUNDAY...
NO WIDESPREAD IFR CONDITIONS EXPECTED.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...RPY/30/26
NEAR TERM...RPY/MZ
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...30
AVIATION...MZ








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