Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 202351
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
751 PM EDT Wed Sep 20 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
A weak upper level disturbance over the area slips southward on
Thursday. Weak high pressure builds through the weekend. Cold
front approaches by mid next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH THURSDAY/...
As of 745 PM Wednesday...

Isolated convection rapidly dissipating early this evening with
loss of heating, per current forecast. So no changes


As of 205 PM Wednesday.

Scattered showers dot the area this afternoon, and some could
grow into run of the mill thunderstorms. This should all die
down this evening, leaving patchy cloud, but valley fog is still
likely to form and become dense once again by early Thursday
morning, before burning off by its usual mid morning time.

The upper level low shifts southward on Thursday, and so do the
scattered showers and thunderstorms. Have the chance only over
the central and southern mountains midday and afternoon, as
drier air starts to filter in from the northeast.

Temperatures and dew points looked good in light of the latest,
well converged guidance.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY NIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT/...
As of 215 PM Wednesday...

Any lingering showers will dissipate Thursday night with
loss of heating. Otherwise, mainly dry conditions, with above normal
temperatures in the short term period. There is a slight possibility
of an isolated shower across the higher terrain during peak heating
during the period, but due to overall stable and dry conditions,
will likely be just cu. River valley fog expected in mornings.

&&

.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 215 PM Wednesday...

Better chances for precipitation in the long term period, albeit
chances are not overly great. Maria will move north through the
Atlantic early next week, with clouds, and possibly enough moisture
spreading westward into the CWA for isold shower activity. Maria
will eventually be pushed farther to the east as the week
progresses, as a shortwave trough and surface cold front moves
through the midwest by Thursday, with showers possible. At this
point, any QPF in the long term period looks to remain minimal.

&&

.AVIATION /00Z THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
00Z Thursday thru 00Z Friday...
As of 745 PM Wednesday...

There will still be patchy cloud around tonight, associated
with the upper level low. However, valley fog is likely to form
and become dense overnight into Thursday morning, before burning
off by 14Z Thursday.

The upper level low will drift south Thursday, limiting the
chance for showers to the central and southern mountains of WV.

Calm to light and variable surface flow through tonight,
northwest in the mountains, will become light north to northeast
throughout the area on Thursday.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z FRIDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Fog forecast for overnight tonight into
Thursday morning may need adjustments on timing and density.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                            THU 09/21/17
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EDT 1HRLY       20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    M    L    L    M
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    H    M    M    M    L    L    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    M    L    L    M
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    L    L    L    M
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    L    M    M    M    L    L    L    M

AFTER 00Z FRIDAY...
IFR in valley fog possible each morning through Monday.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/SL
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...SL
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM/JMV



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