Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 220217
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
917 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

.SYNOPSIS...
Weak system crosses tonight. Cloudy and cooler in its wake
Wednesday. Unseasonably warm again Thursday and Friday.
Strong cold front Friday night brings cooler weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
As of 9 PM Tuesday...
As current forecast indicates, precip initially having hard
time overcoming dry air, but will gradually overspread mainly
the southern half of the area tonight into Wednesday morning.

As of 300 PM Tuesday...

Heating in the afternoon sun combined with just enough mixing
to lower RH values into the 20s across south central WV and
southwest VA. Given only an occasional puff of wind, marginally
low fuels, opted to hold off on SPS. Temperatures and dew points
converge this evening, with not much deviation from guidance
and previous forecast overnight tonight.

Light rain to the north and spotty light rain showers to the
south were marching up the Ohio River Valley this afternoon, in
response to a flat upper level short wave trough that will cross
the area tonight, likely bringing the showers along with it.
Models continue to peg higher coverage south and less north.

These showers wane Wednesday as the short wave trough exits
early, and heights build. A moist southerly low level flow will
struggle to take out a shallow inversion Wednesday, making for a
cloudy day with temperatures at or below the latest guidance,
which is lower than the previous forecast.

&&

.SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY NIGHT THROUGH FRIDAY/...
As of 310 PM Tuesday...

Strong warm air advection kicks in on Thursday as a warm front
pushes northward across the region. There is some weak
instability and although we will mostly see just a few showers
with the passing of the front, it is possible that there could
be an isolated thunderstorm.

Friday should be mostly dry as we will be entrenched in the
warm sector as low pressure tracks northeast into the Great
Lakes. High temperatures will soar well into the mid to upper
70s. We should stay dry through 00Z Saturday, as cold front at
this point is still across Indiana/Illinois border.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY/...
As of 325 PM Tuesday...

Low pressure tracking across the Great Lakes will drive a cold
front through the region Saturday morning. Models continue to
slow down this front and now with the early Saturday morning
arrival, it appears that t-storm chances are decreasing. Still
left a mention for t-storms for now in the forecast, but
expecting mostly showers with isolated embedded storms possible.

Sharp temperature contrast behind the front and colder air
arrives fairly quickly Saturday night. With northwest flow it is
possible that we will see some snow flying Saturday night into
early Sunday morning, but this activity will mainly be in the
favorable upslope areas across Northern West Virginia Mountains.

Models continue to be miles apart after Saturday. As
ECMWF keeps high pressure overhead while the GFS has a clipper
system pushing across the region. Continued with what previous
forecast had with slight chance POPs Sunday night.

All guidance agrees however, that warmer conditions will make a
return by the beginning of next week.

&&

.AVIATION /02Z WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
03Z Wednesday thru 00Z Thursday... As of 710 PM Tuesday...

A weak upper disturbance with a moistening southerly flow will
bring showers across mainly southern portions of the area
tonight into Wednesday morning. VFR ceilings will lower to MVFR
cigs and vsby with showers mainly after 06Z across southern
sites including HTS, CRW and BKW. Northern sites will remain
VFR, with scattered light showers also mainly after 06Z.
Conditions will likely lower to IFR 10Z-14Z across east facing
slopes of the WV and SW VA mountains including BKW.

The showers will gradually taper off from west to east on
Wednesday. However, with an increased moist atmosphere on
continued light southerly flow, we look for generally MVFR
ceilings spreading northward during the day and covering most
areas by 20Z. Some east facing slopes may remain in IFR
ceilings, but will improve BKW to MVFR by 18Z.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 00Z THURSDAY...


FORECAST CONFIDENCE: High early, becoming medium later tonight
and Wednesday.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: IFR may be more widespread across the
south late tonight and Wednesday morning than currently forecast.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

DATE                                                                 WED
UTC 1HRLY       00   01   02   03   04   05   06   07   08   09   10   11
EST 1HRLY       19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05   06
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    M    M    M    L
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M    L
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    L
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    M

AFTER 00Z THURSDAY...
No widespread IFR conditions are expected at this time.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/JMV/MPK
NEAR TERM...TRM/JMV
SHORT TERM...MPK
LONG TERM...MPK
AVIATION...JMV



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