Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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000
FXUS61 KRLX 261755
AFDRLX

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON WV
1249 PM EST FRI DEC 26 2014

.SYNOPSIS...
HIGH PRESSURE BRINGS REMAINS IN CONTROL INTO SATURDAY. A COLD FRONT
CROSSES SATURDAY NIGHT. A WAVE OF LOW PRESSURE MOVES ALONG THE
FRONT SUNDAY...AND MAYBE ANOTHER ON MONDAY.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
1030AM UPDATE. NO CHANGES.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
ADDED FREEZING FOG ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST QUADRANT OF WV RIVER
BASINS PER MODIS SATELLITE FOG CHANNEL AND SFC OBS BELOW FREEZING
THROUGH 13Z.

A SFC HIGH PRESSURE BUILDS FROM THE SOUTH COVERING THE OH
VALLEY...WV...THE MID ATLANTIC AND SOUTHEAST STATES TODAY THROUGH
AT LEAST SATURDAY. WITH NEAR ZONAL FLOW ALOFT...DRY WEATHER CAN BE
EXPECTED THROUGH THE PERIOD. MOSTLY CLEAR SKIES WILL PROVIDE WARM
AFTERNOON TEMPERATURES RANGING FROM THE MID 50S LOWLANDS...TO THE
MID 40S HIGHEST ELEVATIONS. SFC FLOW WILL BE LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH...AND 20-30 KNOTS MAINLY WEST AT H850. AFTERNOON MIXING
COULD PRODUCE BRIEF PERIODS OF GUSTY WINDS.

AT NIGHT...EXPECT THE ATMOSPHERE TO DECOUPLE ALLOWING FOR CALM
WIND...AND RADIATIONAL COOLING FOR AT OR BELOW FREEZING
TEMPERATURES TONIGHT. ISOLATED AREAS COULD EVEN REACH INTO THE
UPPER 20S TONIGHT.

WENT COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THE MAV FOR HIGHS TODAY...AND
COUPLE DEGREES LOWER THAN THE MAV FOR LOWS TONIGHT.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
HIGH PRESSURE HOLDS ON AS LONG AS POSSIBLE OVER THE PIEDMONT AND MID
ATLANTIC...BUT WILL FINALLY SUCCUMB TO THE APPROACHING FRONTAL
SYSTEM FOR THE END OF THE WEEKEND AND EARLY NEXT WEEK. SURFACE LOW
WITH THE FRONT DEEPENS...BUT WILL RAPIDLY TRACK TO THE NORTHEAST
FROM THE WESTERN GREAT LAKES AND INTO QUEBEC. THIS WILL WILL BRING
THE WEST TO EAST MOTION OF THE BOUNDARY TO A CRAWL...AND WILL LIKELY
HANG UP IN THE MOUNTAINS AS A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS ALONG IT. THINK
THE LOW WILL BE DEEPENING ENOUGH TO KEEP THE FORCING FROM BECOMING
FRONTOLYTIC...HOWEVER...AS THE MAIN ENERGY DEPARTS TO THE
NORTHEAST...DO NOT THINK THIS WILL BE A HIGH QPF EVENT DESPITE ITS
DURATION. NOT A LOT OF UPPER LEVEL SUPPORT TO THIS SYSTEM AT
ALL...WITH THE ABSENCE OF A SIGNIFICANT 500MB TROUGH.

COLD AIR ADVECTION BRINGS TEMPERATURES DOWN TOWARDS FREEZING SUNDAY
NIGHT. SO AS THE COLD AIR FINALLY FILTERS IN...THE
FORCING/PRECIPITATION WILL BE EXITING WITH ONLY LOW END CHANCES FOR
SNOW BY THE TIME THOSE TEMPERATURES COME DOWN. HIGHEST POINTS IN THE
MOUNTAINS MAY SEE AN INCH OUT OF IT...BUT NOTHING FOR THE LOWLANDS
FOR NOW.

UNTIL THAT POINT...SATURDAY SHOULD BE QUITE MILD ACROSS THE MIDDLE
OHIO VALLEY...AND SHOULD SEE TEMPERATURES TOPPING 60 DEGREES IN THE
KANAWHA AND TUG FORK VALLEYS.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
MOISTURE SLOWLY PULLING OUT THROUGH THE BEGINNING OF THE LONG
TERM...AND HAVE POPS COMING TO AND END ACROSS EASTERN CWA MONDAY
INTO MONDAY NIGHT. 850MB TEMP TROUGH PASSES TUESDAY NIGHT ON GFS AND
ECMWF...SO HAVE SOME SLIGHT CHANCE AND CHANCE POPS ACROSS THE
NORTHERN MOUNTAINOUS COUNTIES AS THE COLD AIR SQUEEZES OUT WHAT
REMAINS OF THE LIMITED MOISTURE. ALTHOUGH MODELS ARE A GOOD DEAL
LOWER ON THE MOISTURE THAN PREVIOUS RUNS AS HIGH NOSES IN...SO
LOWERED POPS VS. PREVIOUS FORECAST. BLENDED IN WPC GUIDANCE FOR
TEMPS.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/...
18Z FRIDAY THRU 18Z SATURDAY...
THRU 12Z SATURDAY...HIGH PRESSURE DOMINATES. VFR MOSTLY CLEAR TO SLOWLY
INCREASING HIGH CLOUDS AFTER 00Z.

MID TO HIGH LEVEL MOISTURE WILL INCREASE FROM THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST
SATURDAY WITHIN A LONG FETCH OF SOUTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...BUT WELL
AHEAD OF THE NEXT UPPER DISTURBANCE AND ATTENDING COLD FRONT.
SO...BECOMING VFR CEILINGS AOA 8000 FEET MAINLY WEST BY 18Z...WITH
NO PRECIPITATION EXPECTED. WINDS WILL GENERALLY BE LIGHT FROM THE
SOUTH AND SOUTHWEST.

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 18Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: HIGH.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: NONE.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02   03   04   05
EST 1HRLY       13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00
CRW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 18Z SATURDAY...
IFR POSSIBLE IN RAIN SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...NONE.
OH...NONE.
KY...NONE.
VA...NONE.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...ARJ/JMV/26
NEAR TERM...ARJ/JMV
SHORT TERM...26
LONG TERM...MZ
AVIATION...JMV










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