Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Charleston, WV

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FXUS61 KRLX 291510
AFDRLX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Charleston WV
1110 AM EDT FRI JUL 29 2016

.SYNOPSIS...
Upper level troughiness will keep the weather somewhat unsettled
into early next week. Upper level ridging may bring a warmer,
quieter interlude during the middle of next week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
Latest satellite imagery and surface observations indicate the low
clouds had begun to lift and break up. There are currently a few
showers that are moving southeast across the mountains and
portions of northeast Kentucky.

Current thinking is that the status clouds should continue to
break up. However, cumulus clouds should develop along with
additional showers and storms.

No changes anticipated at this time.

PREVIOUS DISCUSSION...
Widespread low clouds and fog are likely to take most if not all
of the morning to burn off and lift out.

Next in a series of upper level short wave troughs crosses
southern portions of the area midday and this afternoon. Hence
PoPs increase from the southwest.

This short wave is out ahead of main trough axis, which itself
approaches the forecast area late today and tonight. Forcing
associated with it enters the middle Ohio Valley toward this
evening, so associated convection approaching late today will
tend to diminish over the middle Ohio Valley as the sun sets.
Nonetheless, will carry a chance overnight as the feature
generates some low level convergence as it crosses.

PW values approaching two inches with these features, and overall
light deep layer flow, support locally heavy downpours. With the
light flow, and modest heating today, the threat for severe
weather is limited.

Temperatures close to inherited forecast and current guidance,
except used the MET to lower highs south a bit, based on the short
wave trough further limiting opportunity for sunshine and heating
there.

&&

.SHORT TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
Moisture remains over the region through the weekend and into
Monday...although precipitable water comes down slightly. Models
showing several disturbances moving through...but timing and
placement varies by model. Due to these differences...will keep pops
fairly generic with chances of showers and thunderstorms...highest
in the afternoon and evening hours.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH THURSDAY/...
Using a combination of WPC and consensus models...indicated
building heights across the region allowing for hot and humid
temperatures. Went with diurnal showers and storms through the
term...especially in the mountains. Ridge will diminish toward end
of term as a front approaches from the west.

&&

.AVIATION /15Z FRIDAY THROUGH TUESDAY/...
Areas of fog and low clouds early this morning will likely take
the entire morning to thin out, the stratus mixing into stratocu
and then finally into an afternoon cu field 4-5 kft.

The next in a series of frequent upper level short wave troughs
will combine with whatever daytime heating that can be mustered
after burning off the morning low clouds to produce showers and
thunderstorms in the area this afternoon, coverage too low to
mention in the TAFs. Yet another will keep the chance for a
shower or thunderstorm going overnight tonight.

Fog and low clouds are likely to form again overnight tonight, but
with higher clouds and possible precipitation, predictability of
associated IFR conditions is low.

Light and variable surface flow will continue beneath light
northwest flow aloft, which will become light mainly southwest
late today.

CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE AND ALTERNATE SCENARIOS THROUGH 12Z SATURDAY...

FORECAST CONFIDENCE: Medium.

ALTERNATE SCENARIOS: Extent of fog and low clouds quite variable
early this morning, not to mention timing of burning off of fog
and lifting of ceilings through midday today. The fog and low
cloud forecast for overnight tonight is equally dicey, depending
upon higher clouds and precipitation. A thunderstorm may directly
impact an airport with IFR conditions this afternoon and / or
tonight.

EXPERIMENTAL TABLE OF FLIGHT CATEGORY OBJECTIVELY SHOWS CONSISTENCY
OF WFO FORECAST TO AVAILABLE MODEL INFORMATION:
H = HIGH:   TAF CONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.
M = MEDIUM: TAF HAS VARYING LEVEL OF CONSISTENCY WITH MODELS.
L = LOW:    TAF INCONSISTENT WITH ALL MODELS OR ALL BUT ONE MODEL.

UTC 1HRLY       15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22   23   00   01   02
EDT 1HRLY       11   12   13   14   15   16   17   18   19   20   21   22
CRW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
HTS CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
BKW CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
EKN CONSISTENCY  M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
PKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H
CKB CONSISTENCY  M    M    M    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H    H

AFTER 12Z SATURDAY...
IFR conditions in low clouds and / or fog during the overnight
into the morning hours each day, and briefly in showers and
thunderstorms mainly, but not exclusively, in the afternoons and
evenings.

&&

.RLX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
WV...None.
OH...None.
KY...None.
VA...None.

&&

$$
SYNOPSIS...TRM/RPY/SL
NEAR TERM...JSH/TRM
SHORT TERM...RPY
LONG TERM...SL
AVIATION...TRM


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