Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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FXUS64 KSHV 251132
AFDSHV

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Shreveport LA
632 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017

.AVIATION...
Persistent pattern to continue through the 25/12Z terminal
forecast period. MVFR visibilities possible across select
terminals around daybreak this morning and again on Tuesday
morning. Conditions to improve to VFR by 25/15Z. VCSH conditions
possible across GGG/TYR/TXK/LFK terminal sites this afternoon.
Otherwise, southeast winds around 5 knots to prevail through the
forecast period. /05/

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /issued 428 AM CDT Mon Sep 25 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Overall, very little change from the previous forecast package,
and persistence will generally prevail for the sensible weather
through Tuesday. The Four State Region remains between a large
upper trough over the Rockies and a high-over-low block over the
Eastern CONUS. The weak upper low in the Eastern block is over
Southern Mississippi/Southeast Louisiana. Unfortunately, this low
is not expected to provide much enhancement to any diurnal sea
breeze convection. Latest water vapor loops still indicate dry
air aloft over the area, but the upper flow is beginning to
transition to southwesterly, which should slowly increase deep
layer moisture. Rain chances on Tuesday continue to remain low,
and will generally be associated with the sea breeze. Otherwise,
daytime temperatures will remain in the low 90s.

On Tuesday, the upper trough over the Rockies will become cut off
over the Desert Southwest, and an ejecting shortwave across the
Northern Plains will help to push a cold front southward across
the Southern Plains and slowly through our area on Wednesday.
However, an upper ridge will strengthen and expand across East
Texas and Louisiana at the same time. The anticyclonic flow around
the ridge will keep most of the deep layer moisture and large
scale forcing to the west and northwest. A slight chance for
convection remains in the forecast Wednesday and Thursday, but
model guidance continues to suggest subsidence from the ridge
will win and most locations will remain dry. If the center of the
ridge is farther south than currently expected, the flow aloft
will be more southwesterly, which could advect enough deep layer
moisture into the area to increase rain chances. However,
confidence is not high enough to warrant more than slight chance
to low-end chance PoPs at this time.

Shortwave ridging and a Canadian surface high pressure will build
into the area Friday and into the weekend. A cooler airmass
should result in near or below normal temperatures through the
weekend and into early next week. Temperatures in the extended
period are a bit tricky. They will mostly certainly be cooler than
we are experiencing now, but the lack of significant wetting
rains may limit the cooldown slightly. Therefore, temperatures for
next weekend and into Monday were trended on the warm side of the
model guidance.

CN

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  92  70  92  73 /  20  10  10  10
MLU  91  68  91  70 /  20  10  10  10
DEQ  90  67  90  69 /  20  10  10  10
TXK  90  68  90  71 /  20  10  10  10
ELD  91  67  91  69 /  20  10  10  10
TYR  90  70  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
GGG  91  69  91  71 /  10  10  10  10
LFK  91  70  92  71 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...None.
LA...None.
OK...None.
TX...None.
&&

$$

05/19


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