Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Shreveport, LA

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000
FXUS64 KSHV 221913
AFDSHV

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE SHREVEPORT LA
213 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014

.DISCUSSION...
DESPITE STRONG STRATUS DECK ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE REGION THIS
MORNING...NO DOUBT THAT THE DRIER AIR HAS FUNNELED INTO THE REGION
WITH OUR PWAT THIS MORNING DOWN TO 1.23 INCHES VS 1.81 INCHES
THURSDAY MORNING. THIS DUE IN PART TO STRONG UPPER LEVEL RIDGING
WHICH HAS MOVED OVER THE REGION AND IS HELPING TO SUPPRESS ANY
CONVECTION...OR EVEN ANY CLOUD COVER FOR THAT MATTER. EXPECTING
LITTLE IF ANY CHANGE FROM THIS WEATHER PATTERN THROUGH THE
UPCOMING WEEKEND AS WE REMAIN UNDER THE GRIPS OF THIS BLOCKING
RIDGE AT ALL LEVELS. BY MONDAY...THE RIDGE BEGINS TO LIFT
NORTHWARD INTO THE MID MISS/TENN AND OHIO VALLEY. OUR REGION WILL
BE SOUTH OF THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE WHICH WILL SET UP A RATHER
STRONG EASTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE NORTHERN GULF COAST. MODELS ARE
STILL HINTING ON A TUTT LOW HUGGING THE NORTHERN GULF COAST BY
LATE MONDAY AND INFLUENCING MORE OF OUR REGION DURING THE DAY
TUESDAY/TUESDAY NIGHT. WITH HEATING AND INCREASING MOISTURE...WE
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVERTISE CHANCE POPS WITH THIS FEATURE...MAINLY
ACROSS OUR SOUTHEAST HALF.

MEANWHILE...BY WEDNESDAY...THE RIDGE APPEARS TO GET SHUNTED INTO
THE TENN VALLEY DUE TO STRONG TROUGH EXITING THE ROCKIES AND
ENTERING THE CENTRAL/SOUTHERN PLAINS. THIS TROUGH WILL HELP TO
FURTHER DRAW UP GULF MOISTURE WITH INCREASING CHANCES FOR SHOWERS
AND THUNDERSTORMS BY MID TO LATE WEEK NEXT WEEK. FOLLOWED THE GFS
CLOSELY WITH THIS PATTERN...AS IT HAS BEEN THE MORE CONSISTENT
MODEL BETWEEEN IT AND THE ECMWF WITH FRONTAL TIMING. DID NOT BUY
INTO THE BIG COOL DOWN THE GFS IS HINTING AT BY THE END OF NEXT
WEEK INTO LABOR DAY WEEKEND HOWEVER BUT THIS WILL CONTINUE TO BE
WATCHED CLOSELY.

CONCERNING TEMPERATURES FOR THIS WEEKEND: THE GOOD NEWS IS THAT
WITH A DRIER AIRMASS IN PLACE...THE MORE LIKELY WE ARE TO SEE
DRIER DEWPOINTS MIX DOWN TO THE SFC DURING PEAK HEATING. DEWPOINTS
ARE DOWN SOME 1-3 DEGREES ACROSS MOST PLACES THIS AFTERNOON
COMPARED TO YESTERDAY AS A RESULT. SHOULD SEE THIS TREND CONTINUE
FOR SATURDAY AND HOPEFULLY SUNDAY AS WE SHOULD SEE SOME OF OUR
WARMEST TEMPERATURES OF THE SUMMER SEASON THIS WEEKEND. HAVING
SAID THAT... STILL NOT BUYING INTO THE WIDESPREAD TRIPLE DIGIT
TEMPERATURES THE GFS MOS OUTPUT IS SPITTING OUT. SHORT TERM
TEMPERATURES WILL CLOSELY MIMIC THE NAM MOS OUTPUT WITH MID 90S TO
NEAR 100 DEGREES FOR BOTH SATURDAY AND SUNDAY. AS STATED
ABOVE...IF WE CAN CONTINUE THE TREND OF THE DEWPOINT TEMPERATURES
MIXING DOWN INTO THE 60S DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF AFTERNOONS...
HEAT ADVISORIES WILL NOT BE NECESSARY. STILL EXPECTING HEAT INDEX
VALUES NEAR 100-105 DEGREES DURING PEAK HEATING THIS WEEKEND INTO
MONDAY...JUST SHORT OF CRITERIA.

PRELIMS TO FOLLOW...13.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 1215 PM CDT FRI AUG 22 2014/

AVIATION...
UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE TO BUILD ACROSS THE REGION THROUGH 23/18Z. WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF TEMPO MVFR CEILINGS/VISIBILITIES ACROSS LFK/MLU
TERMINAL SITES AROUND 23/12Z...VFR CONDITIONS TO PREVAIL AREAWIDE.
SOUTHWEST WINDS 5 TO 10 KNOTS TO BECOME LIGHT AND VARIABLE
OVERNIGHT AND INCREASE TO 5 TO 10 KNOTS AGAIN ON SATURDAY.

/05/

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
SHV  75  97  75  98  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
MLU  71  96  72  97  73 /   0   0   0   0  10
DEQ  72  96  72  97  73 /   0   0   0   0   0
TXK  74  96  74  97  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
ELD  71  95  71  97  72 /   0   0   0   0  10
TYR  75  98  75  99  76 /   0   0   0   0   0
GGG  74  98  74  98  75 /   0   0   0   0   0
LFK  74  97  74  98  75 /   0  10  10  10  10

&&

.SHV WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
AR...NONE.
LA...NONE.
OK...NONE.
TX...NONE.
&&

$$

13





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