Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 241120
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
520 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
VFR conditions will prevail through the forecast period. Gusty
south winds will develop later this morning with gusts in the
25-30 knot range common through late afternoon. Wind will
gradually veer and diminish through the evening.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 343 AM CST Tue Jan 24 2017/

DISCUSSION...
Fire weather concerns today remain the primary weather impact
through the forecast period. Sfc low currently over SW KS will
track into SE KS by this evening as potent wave lifts into the
Central Plains. Resultant pressure gradient will increase winds
across the entire forecast area with the belt of strongest low
level flow supporting near advisory level winds from NE OK into
far NW AR. Furthermore unseasonably warm temps will be realized
this afternoon especially across E OK where a more westerly wind
component is likely. Finally a surge of sharply lower dewpoints
will stream eastward making a push into NE OK by late afternoon.
This will create dangerous fire weather conditions for these areas
and a Red Flag Warning has been posted accordingly. Further south
and east any wildfires can also be expected to spread rapidly this
afternoon.

Cold front associated with the aforementioned wave passes tonight
so any ongoing wildfires can expect a wind shift. Noticeably
cooler temps return for mid to late week more typical of late
January. The pattern aloft will feature strong ridging through the
western U.S. with the coldest air focused northeast of the region,
while a lack of low level moisture maintains dry conditions
through the remainder of the forecast and likely beyond.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  35  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   71  42  54  31 /   0   0   0   0
MLC   73  39  52  28 /   0   0   0   0
BVO   72  33  48  22 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   68  37  48  22 /   0   0   0   0
BYV   66  40  49  26 /   0   0   0   0
MKO   73  36  49  27 /   0   0   0   0
MIO   68  36  47  25 /   0   0   0  10
F10   75  36  49  28 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   73  42  56  30 /   0  10  10   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...Red Flag Warning from noon today to 7 PM CST this evening for
     OKZ054-055-059-060-064>066.

AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...14



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