Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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FXUS64 KTSA 221141
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
641 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Periods of IFR/MVFR conditions along with scattered rain showers
will remain possible into the mid morning hours across parts of
Southeast Oklahoma and Northwest Arkansas. VFR/clearing conditions
across Northeast Oklahoma are expected to spread across the CWA
mid/late morning into the early afternoon hours with mostly clear
skies forecast this evening. Overnight tonight...mostly clear
skies along with light and variable winds are forecast.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 337 AM CDT Sun Oct 22 2017/

DISCUSSION...

The main forecast issues this morning will be the see-sawing temps
this week with multiple fropas expected and rain chances with the
late week front.

Cold front has cleared east of the forecast area early this
morning. All that is left is the stratiform precip shield in the
wake of the linear MCS which has now moved into the ArkLaTex. Will
try to time where the back edge of the precip will be at 12Z.
Clearing skies behind the Pacific front will yield a very nice day
ahead for the region. Expect a warmer day on Monday ahead of
another reinforcing cold front, arriving late Monday and Monday
night. Temps will drop back below average on Tuesday behind this
front. Yet another quick warm-up back above average is expected
thru Thursday ahead of another cold front.

The late week cold front will be of the Polar variety, a result
of what will be a highly amplified upper flow pattern over the
CONUS late this week. The models dig a very deep trough over the
central part of the country during this time, downstream from
ridging that noses well up into western Canada and the Northwest
Territory. This cold front will likely bring the coolest air of
the season thus far into our area Friday, as well as a chance for
showers and maybe a few storms. Moisture return ahead of this
boundary will not be near what it was with today`s front. Our
first frost/freeze headlines could come about a week from now.

What is not as clear is evolution of the upper trough and its
effect on our sensible weather going into the weekend. The ECMWF
continues to dig energy farther west than the Canadian and GFS,
though the GFS has trended a bit more toward the ECMWF compared to
last night at this time. As a result, the ECMWF keeps
QG/frontogenetic lift over our area longer behind the front and
is wetter on Saturday than the Canadian and GFS. In fact, if the
ECMWF is right a wintry mix could fall over central/western parts
of KS/OK on Saturday. For now, have elected to maintain 20-30 PoPs
over the region longer than the consensus guidance, Friday night
into Saturday, out of respect for the ECMWF solution.

Lacy

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   72  45  76  47 /   0   0   0   0
FSM   70  44  78  47 /  50   0   0   0
MLC   71  44  78  47 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   73  39  76  45 /   0   0   0   0
FYV   64  38  72  42 /  50   0   0   0
BYV   63  41  73  45 /  80   0   0   0
MKO   69  44  77  45 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   68  43  74  44 /  10   0   0   0
F10   70  45  77  46 /   0   0   0   0
HHW   73  45  79  48 /  20   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

AVIATION...20


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