Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK
FXUS64 KTSA 280214
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
914 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015
Have adjusted the temperature and dewpoint forecast in the grids
for the remainder of the overnight. This also necessitated
recalculating hourly rh values. Due to rainfall and cloud cover
earlier today, the normal diurnal pattern became disrupted,
allowing some locations to prematurely cool to near forecast lows.
As the diurnal pattern returns to normal and the temperature
pattern homogenizes over the next few hours, the prematurely cool
areas should remain steady or warm slightly, while the remainder
of the region cools. As such, forecast minimums will remain
mostly unchanged from the afternoon forecast, although the hourly
patterns have changed from the afternoon forecast. Have sent out
updates to the AFM, PFM, and ZFP to reflect these changes.
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 622 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
Evening convection is likely to remain west of Eastern Oklahoma
sites given stabilized conditions from earlier convection. Frontal
boundary will approach NE OK tomorrow afternoon with an uptick in
convective coverage possible...however current timing suggests
minimal aviation impacts through this forecast cycle.
PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 308 PM CDT THU AUG 27 2015/
Showers and thunderstorms that were across eastern Oklahoma earlier
Today have pretty well dissipated and should be completely gone by
00z. So, will not mention in evening portion of the upcoming zones.
Could see some late night showers and storms across portions of northeast
Oklahoma again tonight as a cold front advances into central Kansas.
Shower and thunderstorm chances increase Friday night into Saturday
morning as the cold front advances into the area and a mid-level shortwave
sweeps across the plains and into the Mississippi Valley.
For the remainder of the forecast period...high pressure is expected to
prevail at the surface and aloft. This will bring rather benign weather
to the area with temperatures near normal for this time of year.