Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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453
FXUS64 KTSA 300826
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
326 AM CDT Thu Mar 30 2017

.DISCUSSION...
Upper closed low was positioned across eastern Kansas this morning
with dry slot evident in water vapor imagery extending from east
Texas north into western Missouri. Early morning radar trends show
scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of eastern Missouri
and Arkansas with a more significant band of convection moving into
southeast Louisiana and Mississippi. Surface observations and wrap-
around showers indicated surface low was in southeast Kansas and
will continue moving east into Missouri this afternoon.

Today will be a bit blustery as temperatures struggle to make it out
of the 50s for most locations, especially where cloud cover is
abundant. A few showers will be possible across northeast Oklahoma
and northwest Arkansas as the low moves east.

Temperatures will rebound Friday with the region once again between
systems and shortwave ridging in place. Next system already on the
horizon, currently making landfall across the Pacific Northwest. The
trough will take a dive into the Great Basin before moving over the
Southern Rockies and ejecting out onto the Southern Plains this
weekend. Models now differ with how far south the system will travel
and how quickly it will move east. Regardless, the system will bring
a good chance for another round of showers and thunderstorms, likely
beginning Saturday night into Sunday morning with the first wave and
then another round Sunday night into Monday. Right now it looks like
any severe weather should remain south of the forecast area,
especially if the deeper southern track persists. If the track
trends a bit more north, severe threat will likely increase.

Another system will make an appearance by the middle of next week.
The midweek system looks to track north of the area, with showers
and thunderstorms likely forming along the associated cold front.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   53  41  71  52 /  30   0   0  10
FSM   59  43  76  51 /  20   0   0   0
MLC   59  43  79  55 /  10   0   0   0
BVO   53  38  67  47 /  50   0   0  10
FYV   51  41  71  50 /  30  10   0   0
BYV   51  43  67  48 /  30  10   0   0
MKO   56  41  74  53 /  20   0   0   0
MIO   52  40  66  48 /  50  10   0   0
F10   59  42  74  54 /  10   0   0   0
HHW   65  46  81  54 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...30
LONG TERM....11



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