Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28 29 30 31 32 33 34 35 36 37 38 39 40 41 42 43 44 45 46 47 48 49 50
000
FXUS64 KTSA 182054
AFDTSA

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Tulsa OK
254 PM CST Sun Feb 18 2018

.DISCUSSION...
Low level moisture continues to surge north this afternoon with gusty
south winds. The windy conditions will persist overnight and especially
into Monday as strong upper trough digs across the Southwest. Temperatures
tonight will likely hold near steady this evening, then slowly rise
after midnight with scattered showers/isolated thunderstorms spreading
into eastern Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas in nose of 50-60 knot low
level jet axis. Gusty winds to around 40 mph are likely into the day
Monday as very tight pressure gradient persists ahead of system and
a wind advisory may be needed for portions of the area.

Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms will continue Monday into
Tuesday ahead of cold front, which is forecast to move into far northeast
Oklahoma late Tuesday morning. Showers/thunderstorms will become more
widespread along/behind the front Tuesday into Wednesday as cold front
slowly pushes south. Precipitable water values will likely climb 2-3
standard deviations above normal for this time year and could be in
excess of 1.5 inches as deep moisture plume from the Pacific remains
in place. Heavy rainfall will be likely during this time with widespread
2-3 inches of precipitation expected with locally higher amounts
before cold front pushes south into the ARKLATX region Wednesday
morning.

Also some concern for the potential for freezing rain late Tuesday night
into Wednesday as secondary upper wave lifts out of Mexico with upper
jet couplet developing over the region in right rear quad of jet streak.
Whether temperatures can stay or fall below freezing remains in question
during the day Wednesday and will likely depend on how heavy/widespread
precipitation is at that time. Given the uncertainties, stayed with
only light ice amounts for now, mainly over NE OK/far NW AR, but persons
should continue to monitor the latest forecast as these amounts will
likely fluctuate over the next few days.

Active weather pattern continues Thursday night into Friday as another
strong upper trough moves into the southern Rockies. Areas of rain with
embedded thunderstorms will likely spread over the area during this
time with another round of locally heavy rainfall possible. Given
the expected rainfall this week, drought conditions will significantly
improve, especially over southeast Oklahoma and northwest Arkansas.




&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   57  71  63  67 /  60  80  80  90
FSM   51  72  61  73 /  60  80  80  90
MLC   58  70  66  71 /  60  90  70  90
BVO   55  72  60  65 /  60  60  80  90
FYV   57  69  64  70 /  60  80  80  90
BYV   54  68  62  71 /  60  80  70  90
MKO   56  70  63  70 /  60  90  80  90
MIO   57  70  61  64 /  60  80  80  90
F10   58  70  64  69 /  60  80  80  90
HHW   56  70  64  72 /  50  70  70  90

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...None.
AR...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...11
LONG TERM....12



USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.