Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Tulsa, OK

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000
FXUS64 KTSA 301134
AFDTSA

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TULSA OK
634 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015

.AVIATION...
CONCERNING TAF SITES KTUL/KRVS/KBVO/KMLC/KXNA/KFYV/KFSM/KROG.
MOIST AND UNSTABLE AIR MASS ACROSS THE REGION ALONG WITH A WEAK COLD
FRONT IN THE PROXIMITY WILL SUPPORT SCATTERED TSRA THROUGH TONIGHT.
ACTIVITY IN SOUTH CENTRAL KS MAY IMPACT BVO/TUL/RVS LATER THIS
MORNING. BEST CHANCES SHOULD BE AT NERN OK SITES THIS AFTERNOON AND
MLC/FSM AFTER 00Z. ALTHOUGH LAYERED CLOUDS WILL BE THE RULE FOR MUCH
OF THIS FORECAST PERIOD...VFR CONDITIONS SHOULD PREVAIL OUTSIDE OF
TSRA...WHICH WILL REDUCE VSBY TO MVFR.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 259 AM CDT THU JUL 30 2015/

DISCUSSION...
WEAK SFC BOUNDARY HAS PUSHED WELL INTO ERN OK THIS MORNING. THIS
FEATURE WILL SERVE AS FOCUS FOR WIDELY SCATTERED TO SCATTERED
CONVECTION TOMORROW AND INTO FRIDAY...ESPECIALLY OVER ERN OK. HEAT
ADVISORY CRITERIA WILL BE FLIRTED WITH ACROSS PARTS OF EAST
CENTRAL AND SOUTHEAST OKLAHOMA. WILL FOREGO AN ADVISORY AT THIS
TIME GIVEN MARGINAL VALUES EXPECTED ALONG WITH THE SHORT DURATION.
MODELS HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT IN PUSHING THE BOUNDARY
FURTHER WEST BY LATER IN THE DAY FRIDAY...WITH MOST CONVECTION
ACROSS CENTRAL AN WESTERN SECTIONS OF OKLAHOMA. UPPER HIGH TO
REMAINED POSITIONED TO THE WEST OF THE FA THROUGH THE FORECAST
PERIOD...WITH SOME HEIGHT RISES NOTED THROUGH THE WEEKEND PER THE
GFS. LATER IN THE FORECAST CYCLE...ECMWF FLATTENS THE RIDGE AS AS
WAVE TRAVERSES THE CENTRAL PLAINS...WHILE THE GFS MAINTAINS
HIGHER HEIGHTS/WEAK NW FLOW. WILL KEEP FORECAST DRY FOR NOW BEYOND
FRIDAY. TEMPERATURES WILL INCREASE SOME OVER THE WEEKEND...BUT
WILL LIKELY NOT BE AS HOT AS OBSERVED THE LAST WEEK GIVEN THE
POSITIONING OF THE UPPER RIDGE TO THE WEST.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
TUL   90  71  90  71 /  30  40  20  10
FSM   94  73  93  70 /  30  30  20   0
MLC   96  73  92  70 /  30  30  30  10
BVO   88  68  90  67 /  30  30  20  10
FYV   89  66  88  64 /  30  20  20   0
BYV   88  66  89  65 /  30  10  10   0
MKO   92  72  89  69 /  30  40  20  10
MIO   86  66  89  69 /  30  20  20   0
F10   95  73  89  69 /  30  30  30  10
HHW   99  73  94  71 /  20  30  20  10

&&

.TSA WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OK...NONE.
AR...NONE.
&&

$$

LONG TERM....23
AVIATION...69



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