Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 181231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Dec 18 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 18-Dec 20 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 18-Dec 20 2017

            Dec 18     Dec 19     Dec 20
00-03UT        4          4          4
03-06UT        4          5 (G1)     4
06-09UT        4          4          3
09-12UT        3          3          3
12-15UT        5 (G1)     3          3
15-18UT        4          3          2
18-21UT        3          3          2
21-00UT        4          4          3

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely on 18-19 Dec as
influence from a positive polarity CH HSS persists.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-15 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 18-Dec 20 2017

              Dec 18  Dec 19  Dec 20
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 18-Dec 20 2017

              Dec 18        Dec 19        Dec 20
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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