Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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605
FXXX10 KWNP 111231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2016 Feb 11 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 11-Feb 13 2016 is 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 11-Feb 13 2016

            Feb 11     Feb 12     Feb 13
00-03UT        3          3          3
03-06UT        2          4          3
06-09UT        2          3          2
09-12UT        2          4          3
12-15UT        1          3          2
15-18UT        2          2          2
18-21UT        2          3          2
21-00UT        3          3          2

Rationale: No G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic storms are expected.  No
significant transient or recurrent solar wind features are forecast.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 11-Feb 13 2016

              Feb 11  Feb 12  Feb 13
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 11-Feb 13 2016

              Feb 11        Feb 12        Feb 13
R1-R2            5%            5%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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