Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 021231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2015 Sep 02 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 2 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Sep 02-Sep 04 2015 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Sep 02-Sep 04 2015

            Sep 02     Sep 03     Sep 04
00-03UT        2          4          3
03-06UT        2          3          2
06-09UT        1          3          2
09-12UT        2          3          2
12-15UT        3          2          2
15-18UT        3          2          2
18-21UT        3          3          2
21-00UT        5 (G1)     4          3

Rationale: The geomagnetic field is expected to reach minor (G1-Minor)
storm conditions late on day one (02 Sep) due to the arrival of a CIR
and subsequent CH HSS.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Sep 02-Sep 04 2015

              Sep 02  Sep 03  Sep 04
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Sep 02-Sep 04 2015

              Sep 02        Sep 03        Sep 04
R1-R2            1%            1%            1%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.



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