Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 291231
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Aug 29 1230 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Aug 29-Aug 31 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Aug 29-Aug 31 2014

            Aug 29     Aug 30     Aug 31
00-03UT        3          2          3
03-06UT        4          2          4
06-09UT        3          3          3
09-12UT        5 (G1)     2          3
12-15UT        4          2          2
15-18UT        3          1          2
18-21UT        3          1          2
21-00UT        3          3          3

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms were observed between 0900-1200
UTC on 29 Aug due to coronal hole high speed stream effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Aug 29-Aug 31 2014

              Aug 29  Aug 30  Aug 31
S1 or greater   10%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Aug 29-Aug 31 2014

              Aug 29        Aug 30        Aug 31
R1-R2           20%           10%            5%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


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