Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 220031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2014 Dec 22 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 4 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Dec 22-Dec 24 2014 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Dec 22-Dec 24 2014

            Dec 22     Dec 23     Dec 24
00-03UT        5 (G1)     3          3
03-06UT        4          2          2
06-09UT        4          2          2
09-12UT        3          2          2
12-15UT        3          2          2
15-18UT        3          2          2
18-21UT        3          2          2
21-00UT        3          2          2

Rationale: There is a chance for a G1 (Minor) or greater geomagnetic
storm associated with a CME from Dec 18 on day 1 (Dec 22).

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Dec 22-Dec 24 2014

              Dec 22  Dec 23  Dec 24
S1 or greater   30%     30%     30%

Rationale: There is a chance for an S1 (Minor) or greater solar
radiation storm from Regions 2242 and 2241.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

Radio blackouts reaching the R1 levels were observed over the past 24
hours. The largest was at Dec 21 2014 0732 UTC

Radio Blackout Forecast for Dec 22-Dec 24 2014

              Dec 22        Dec 23        Dec 24
R1-R2           85%           85%           85%
R3 or greater   40%           40%           40%

Rationale: R1-R2 (Minor-Moderate) or greater radio blackouts are
expected, with a continued chance for an R3 (Strong) or greater blackout
from Regions 2242 and 2241.


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