Routine Space Environment Product (Daily)
Issued by NWS

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000
FXXX10 KWNP 240031
DAYTDF

:Product: 3-Day Forecast
:Issued: 2017 Feb 24 0030 UTC
# Prepared by the US Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center
# Product description and SWPC contact on the Web
# http://www.swpc.noaa.gov/wwire.html
#
#             3-Day Forecast
#
A. NOAA Geomagnetic Activity Observation and Forecast

The greatest observed 3 hr Kp over the past 24 hours was 3 (below NOAA
Scale levels).
The greatest expected 3 hr Kp for Feb 24-Feb 26 2017 is 5 (NOAA Scale
G1).

NOAA Kp index breakdown Feb 24-Feb 26 2017

            Feb 24     Feb 25     Feb 26
00-03UT        4          3          2
03-06UT        5 (G1)     4          3
06-09UT        4          3          2
09-12UT        3          3          2
12-15UT        3          2          2
15-18UT        3          2          2
18-21UT        2          2          2
21-00UT        2          3          2

Rationale: G1 (Minor) geomagnetic storms are likely early on day one (24
Feb) due to CH HSS effects.

B. NOAA Solar Radiation Activity Observation and Forecast

Solar radiation, as observed by NOAA GOES-13 over the past 24 hours, was
below S-scale storm level thresholds.

Solar Radiation Storm Forecast for Feb 24-Feb 26 2017

              Feb 24  Feb 25  Feb 26
S1 or greater    1%      1%      1%

Rationale: No S1 (Minor) or greater solar radiation storms are expected.
No significant active region activity favorable for radiation storm
production is forecast.

C. NOAA Radio Blackout Activity and Forecast

No radio blackouts were observed over the past 24 hours.

Radio Blackout Forecast for Feb 24-Feb 26 2017

              Feb 24        Feb 25        Feb 26
R1-R2            5%            5%            5%
R3 or greater    1%            1%            1%

Rationale: No R1 (Minor) or greater radio blackouts are expected.  No
significant active region flare activity is forecast.


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