Drought Information Statement
Issued by NWS Greer, SC

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AXUS72 KGSP 132102
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GAC105-147-119-257-137-241-NCC075-173-113-099-087-175-
115-021-089-149-161-111-199-121-011-023-045-071-109-
035-003-097-119-097-179-025-159-059-SCC001-047-007-
073-077-045-059-083-087-023-021-091-272102-

DROUGHT INFORMATION STATEMENT
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GREENVILLE-SPARTANBURG SC
502 PM EDT WED JUL 13 2016

PRIMARY STATEMENT #2016P1

...Severe Drought Conditions Have Returned to Parts of Western North
Carolina, Upstate South Carolina, and Northeast Georgia for the
Summer of 2016...

SYNOPSIS...
Following a very wet late fall and early winter, the region started
experiencing below-normal precipitation in January and dry conditions
generally continued into late spring and early summer.  Initial
impacts were minimal due to the abundance of water from the late-fall
surplus, low evapotranspiration rates, and minimal agricultural
activity.  However, since vegetation emerged from winter dormancy,
the planting season commenced, and the fall surplus diminished,
drought impacts have gradually increased in severity.  Through late
spring and early summer, drought impacts generally lagged drought
classification; however, impact severity is beginning to catch up to
severe drought classification.  Precipitation is not expected to be
significantly below normal across the region heading into late July
though temperatures are expected to remain near normal to above
normal. Therefore, drought conditions are expected to only slightly
deteriorate if change at all heading towards the end of July.

CURRENT DROUGHT CONDITIONS BY COUNTY...
Drought intensity occupying the largest surface area in each
county is listed below...

..NORTH CAROLINA...

COUNTY    CATEGORY   INTENSITY     COUNTY    CATEGORY  INTENSITY
            AS OF:     AS OF:                  AS OF:    AS OF:
         06-28/07-14   07/14                07-07/07-14  07/14

Alexander  D0/NO   No Drought   : Jackson      D2/D2  Severe
Avery      D0/D0   Abnrmlly Dry : Lincoln      D0/D0  Abnrmlly Dry
Buncombe   D1/D2   Severe       : Macon        D2/D2  Severe
Burke      D0/NO   No Drought   : Madison      D1/D1  Moderate
Cabarrus   D0/D0   Abnrmlly Dry : McDowell     D1/D1  Moderate
Caldwell   D0/NO   No Drought   : Mecklenburg  NO/NO  No Drought
Catawba    D0/NO   No Drought   : Mitchell     D1/D1  Moderate
Cleveland  D0/D0   Abnrmlly Dry : Polk         D0/D0  Abnrmlly Dry
Davie      D0/NO   No Drought   : Rowan        NO/NO  No Drought
Gaston     D0/D0   Abnrmlly Dry : Rutherford   D0/D0  Abnrmlly Dry
Graham     D1/D2   Severe       : Swain        D1/D1  Moderate
Haywood    D1/D2   Severe       : Transylvania D2/D2  Severe
Henderson  D1/D2   Severe       : Union        NO/NO  No Drought
Iredell    D0/NO   No Drought   : Yancey       D0/D1  Moderate

..SOUTH CAROLINA...

COUNTY    CATEGORY   INTENSITY    COUNTY     CATEGORY  INTENSITY
            AS OF:     AS OF:                  AS OF:    AS OF:
         06-28/07-14   07/14                06-28/07-14  07/14

Abbeville  D2/D2   Severe       : Laurens      D0/D1  Moderate
Anderson   D1/D2   Severe       : Oconee       D2/D3  Extreme*
Cherokee   D0/D0   Abnrmlly Dry : Pickens      D1/D2  Severe
Chester    D0/NO   No Drought   : Spartanburg  D0/D1  Moderate
Greenville D1/D1   Moderate     : Union        D0/NO  No Drought
Greenwood  D1/D2   Severe       : York         D0/D0  Abnrmlly Dry

..GEORGIA...

COUNTY    CATEGORY   INTENSITY    COUNTY     CATEGORY  INTENSITY
            AS OF:     AS OF:                  AS OF:    AS OF:
         06-28/07-14   07/14                06-28/07-14  07/14

Elbert     D2/D2   Severe      : Hart         D3/D3   Extreme*
Franklin   D3/D3   Extreme*    : Rabun        D2/D2   Severe
Habersham  D2/D2   Severe      : Stephens     D2/D3   Extreme*

*Classification of extreme drought across parts of Georgia and South
Carolina are based on precipitation and streamflow deficits
and are not yet reflected in actual impacts to agriculture,
recreation, water usage, or wildfire danger.

SUMMARY OF IMPACTS...

..AGRICULTURAL...

..Upstate South Carolina and Northeast Georgia...

Across the Upstate South Carolina and northeast Georgia, farmers are
noting that the dry weather is starting to impact un-irrigated corn
crops, and even if irrigation is available, the cost of irrigation is
having a financial impact.  Significant damage to dryland corn crops
is being reported across NW SC.  Late-spring hay harvests were
healthy but hay quality is deteriorating rapidly and pasture lands
are increasingly brown and dormant.  As a result, livestock and horse
owners are purchasing hay to supplement the food supply or sell
cattle to reduce costs.

Cotton, peanuts, soybeans, and corn are all on the brink of suffering
significant damage if rainfall averages do not return to near normal
immediately.  Late-season planting and germination of corn and
soybeans is being significantly hampered by dry soil conditions.
Small pond pool levels are dropping rapidly as well.

Peach farmers are reporting stunted crop growth, approximately 25-50
percent of normal for this time of year.  Peach trees are going into
protection mode and dedicating less energy towards growing fruit,
requiring increasing irrigation.  Peach crops require approximately
an inch of rain each week.

..Western North Carolina...

Few reports have come out of western North Carolina.  However, where
there has been sporadic reporting of stress to corn crops as well as
hay and pastureland.  Water stress is being reported for vegetation
across the NC mountains, which is to be expected anywhere drought
conditions exist.

..RECREATIONAL...

Despite the current drought classifications, reservoir levels are
generally well within operating ranges across the forecast area.
As a result, there are no known significant impacts to boat ramps,
docks, beaches and other recreational areas across major lakes.
However, power generation is being reduced at Lake Keowee in order to
conserve the pool and this may become more common across the region
if rainfall does not increase shortly.

Streamflows are well-below normal across the central and southern
mountains, northeast Georgia, and Upstate South Carolina.  As a
result, these flows may inevitably impact canoeing, kayaking, tubing,
and fishing which will cause financial impacts to related businesses
and tourism.  However, there are no significant reports of impacts at
this time and all mainstem rivers and major tributaries are currently
runnable for below-normal flows.

..WATER RESTRICTIONS...

Despite the current drought classifications, there are no known water
restrictions, voluntary or involuntary, in place anywhere across the
forecast area.  Normal summertime outdoor water use restrictions may
be in place in some local communities.  The public in encouraged to
contact their local municipalities to confirm the lack of water
restrictions in their specific area.

..WILDFIRE DANGER...

There are no known active fires across the forecast area.

              Current         KBDI*     KBDI Departure
Region        Fire                      From Normal
              Danger

NC Piedmont   Moderate      | 301-500 | -0-99    Near Nrml
NC Foothills  Moderate      | 201-400 | +50-125  Near Nrml
NC Nrn Mnts   Moderate      | 301-400 | +100-199 Slight Abv Nrml
NC Cntl Mnts  Moderate      | 201-400 | +100-199 Slight Abv Nrml
NC Srn Mnts   Moderate      | 301-600 | +100-199 Slight Abv Nrml

SC Mnts/      Moderate      | 401-700 | +300-399 Abv Nrml
   Foothills
SC Piedmont   Low-Moderate  | 401-600 | +100-199 Slight Abv Nrml

GA NE Mnts/   Low           | 301-500 | +150-299 Slight Abv Nrml
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   Moderate-High | 501-600 | +100-199 Slight Abv Nrml

*KBDI is the Keetch-Byram Drought Index and measures the impact of
evapotranspiration and precipitation on moisture deficiencies in the
upper soil layer and the layer of decomposing organic materials just
above the soil.  A value of zero represents no moisture deficiency
while a value of 800 is the maximum deficiency measured.  This means
for a value of 800, it will take 8.00 inches of rainfall in 24-hours
to reduce the index to zero or saturation.

Currently, KBDI anomalies suggest conditions are more characteristic
of late summer and early fall across southwest North Carolina,
western Upstate South Carolina, and northeast Georgia.  If conditions
do not improve heading into late summer, the wildfire danger will
continue to increase above seasonal levels accordingly.

PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE SUMMARY...

..OBSERVED WEATHER OVER THE PAST 14 DAYS...

As is often the case during the early summer, the period from late
June through early July has featured both rainfall abundance and
famine across the forecast area.  This is largely due to the general
weather pattern, which favored thunderstorm development across the
mountains and subsequent movement across the Blue Ridge into the
North Carolina foothills and Piedmont.

The last week of June saw the relative breakdown of a deep and hot
ridge of high pressure across the eastern U.S. as a shortwave trough
moved across the central and southern Appalachians around June 27th,
bringing the first widespread round of thunderstorms to the forecast
area since mid-June.  As a longwave trough set up over the Ohio and
Tennessee River valleys, disturbances rotated around the base of the
trough and brought another round of widely scattered storms to the
region on the 29th.  Unsurprisingly, rainfall was very unevenly
distributed with widely scattered areas seeing over an inch of
rainfall while widespread rainfall was less than a half inch.  A
very localized area of 4-6 inches of rainfall occurred near
Greenville late on June 27th, resulting in flash flooding near the
downtown Greenville airport.  This was the only occurrence of flash
flooding during the period.  The weather pattern allowed the North
Carolina Piedmont to cool off slightly back towards near-normal high
temperatures, while the rest of the area saw intermittent relief
from the above-normal highs during the days of better thunderstorm
coverage.

The first week of July saw a change in the large-scale weather
pattern towards a zonal (west-to-east) flow across the southern
Appalachians with subtropical ridging strengthening over the
Atlantic.  The fast flow aloft increased our deep-layer shear and
ushered in several disturbances, resulting in additional rounds of
thunderstorms and more widespread severe wind impacts.  Rainfall
again continued to be unevenly distributed, favoring the central
mountains and the North Carolina Piedmont which were both in closer
proximity to the disturbances aloft and greater instability.  The
exception was the southern and eastern Charlotte metro.  As a result,
rainfall totals across the North Carolina foothills and Piedmont were
generally 1-3 inches versus northeast Georgia Upstate South Carolina,
and parts of the Charlotte metro, which generally saw very little
rainfall.  High temperatures, therefore, were largely influenced by
the rainfall totals, with above-normal highs generally observed
across the interior mountains south into Georgia and South Carolina
with near-normal highs observed across the North Carolina foothills
and Piedmont.

Fortunately, no records were tied or broken at the official climate
sites in Charlotte and Asheville, while Greenville-Spartanburg
International Airport tied a record high on July 3rd (99) and set a
daily record high low temperature on July 5th (78).

..OBSERVED RAINFALL OVER THE PAST 14-DAYS (6/28-7/12)...

                          Departure
              Observed    From            Percent of
Region        Precip      Normal          Normal
              (in)        (in)            (%)

NC Piedmont   1.00-6.00 | -1.50 to +4.50 | 50-350
NC Foothills  2.00-6.00 | -0.50 to +5.00 | 75-500
NC Nrn Mnts   1.50-4.50 | -0.50 to +2.00 | 75-200
NC Cntl Mnts  0.75-5.00 | -1.00 to +2.00 | 50-200
NC Srn Mnts   1.25-7.00 | -1.50 to +4.00 | 25-300

SC Mnts/      0.25-4.50 | -2.50 to +2.00 | 10-250
   Foothills
SC Piedmont   0.50-4.50 | -2.00 to +3.00 | 10-250

GA NE Mnts/   0.25-4.00 | -2.00 to +2.00 | 10-175
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   0.25-3.25 | -2.00 to +1.00 | 10-175

..MEASURED RAINFALL FOR JUNE 2016...

                             June  Dept.     %
                             2016  from     of   Driest
City          County       Precip  Nrml   Nrml     Rank
                             (in)  (in)    (%)

Anderson    | Anderson    | 0.63 | -3.09 |   17 |   4th
AVL Airport | Buncombe    | 2.53 | -0.80 |   76 | >25th
Clayton     | Rabun       | 2.68 | -2.30 |   54 |  19th
CLT Airport | Mecklenburg | 2.82 | -0.92 |   75 | >25th
Elberton    | Elbert      | 1.63 | -2.59 |   39 |  10th
GSP Airport | Spartanburg | 1.21 | -2.59 |   32 |   6th
Hickory     | Catawba     | 1.28 | -2.84 |   31 |   5th
Marshall    | Madison     | 1.96 | -1.87 |   51 |  15th
Walhalla    | Oconee      | 0.67 | -4.11 |   14 |   4th
Waynesville | Haywood     | 2.40 | -1.67 |   59 | >25th

PRECIPITATION and TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK...

..7-DAY WEATHER AND TEMPERATURE OUTLOOK*...

Heading into mid-July, shower and thunderstorm chances will increase
across the region as a weak cold front slowly settles near or over
the area.  The frontal boundary will oscillate near or over the area
for several days which will help to prolong the opportunity to
receive much-needed rainfall across the region.  There remains
tremendous uncertainty regarding the exact location of the boundary
which is important as it will help to focus shower and thunderstorms
and increase coverage nearby.  Interested parties are encouraged to
monitor the latest forecast from NWS Greenville-Spartanburg.

The above-normal temperatures experienced across the region will
continue until the cold front approaches the area during the
July 15th-17th timeframe.  Once nearby, temperatures will moderate
somewhat to near or slightly below-normal as cloud cover and
precipitation coverage increases.  The best chances for above-normal
temperatures will be south of the frontal boundary, across Upstate SC
and northeast Georgia.  The frontal boundary may drift south towards
the end of the period around July 19th-July 20th which may also
briefly reduce high temperatures to near-normal across Upstate SC
and northeast Georgia.

..7-DAY PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

              Forecasted   Normal       Departure
Region        Precip**     Precip       from Normal
              (in)         (in)         Classification

NC Piedmont   1.25-2.50 |  0.75-1.25 |  Above Normal
NC Foothills  1.00-2.00 |  0.75-1.25 |  Slightly Above Normal
NC Nrn Mnts   1.50-3.00 |  0.75-1.75 |  Above Normal
NC Cntl Mnts  0.50-3.00 |  0.50-2.00 |  Slightly Above Normal
NC Srn Mnts   0.75-2.50 |  0.75-1.75 |  Slightly Above Normal

SC Mnts/      0.75-1.75 |  0.75-1.75 |  Near Normal
   Foothills
SC Piedmont   0.75-1.50 |  0.50-1.00 |  Slightly Above Normal

GA NE Mnts/   0.75-1.75 |  0.75-1.50 |  Near Normal
   Foothills
GA Piedmont   0.50-1.25 |  0.75-1.25 |  Slightly Below Normal

* The weather, temperature, and precipitation outlook is based on the
best available guidance and weather pattern analysis at the issuance
time of this statement.

**In the convective season, forecasted precipitation will not account
for very localized areas of higher accumulations due to intense
rainfall or for very localized areas of minimal rainfall due to the
spotty nature of convective activity.

..8-14-DAY OUTLOOK...

While there is strong agreement on a deep and hot ridge of high
pressure building into the central U.S., what is less certain is how
and when that ridge will slide east.  What appears to be most likely
at this time is that a weak trough will stall across the Southeast
U.S., which will allow the region to maintain good coverage of
showers and thunderstorms and experience near-normal precipitation.
The presence of greater shower and thunderstorm coverage combined
with cooler temperatures aloft would result in near-normal to
slightly-above normal temperatures.

The alternative, and less likely forecast at this time, suggests the
Plains ridge will slide east, suppressing afternoon thunderstorm
activity and resulting in well-above normal temperatures and
below-normal precipitation.  Interested parties are always encouraged
to stay abreast of the latest forecast from
NWS Greenville-Spartanburg.

Additionally, July is typically a quiet month for tropical cyclone
activity, and at this time there are no forecasted cyclones that will
cause local concern through the period.

..ONE MONTH OUTLOOK...

Over the next 30-days, there is not a clear signal for either
above-normal or below-normal precipitation; however, there is a
30-40 percent chance of above-normal temperatures.

..THREE MONTH OUTLOOK...

Over the next 90 days, there is not a clear signal for either
above-normal or below-normal precipitation; however, there is a
40-50 percent chance of above-normal temperatures.

..ENSO...

The eastern Pacific is currently ENSO-Neutral, however La Nina
conditions are forecasted to develop heading into the fall and
winter.  Comparisons to past La Nina events suggest the southeast
U.S. may experience a warmer and drier winter; however, this is not a
guarantee as not all previous La Nina events resulted in warmer and
drier conditions.

HYDROLOGIC SUMMARY and OUTLOOK...

The majority of the North Carolina Piedmont and foothills has largely
recovered from late-spring drought conditions and continue to receive
near-normal to above-normal rainfall.  However, major tributary and
mainstem river streamflows and reservoir levels are still slightly
below normal or target levels.  Nevertheless, the chance for
additional heavy rainfall heading into mid- and late- July means a
slight chance for flash flooding and a very slight chance for minor
flooding of major tributaries exists across this region.  Mainstem
river flooding is unlikely.

Elsewhere across the area, recent rainfall has helped to slow the
reduction in streamflows and reservoir levels due to the temporary
increase in soil moisture and groundwater supplies; however, the
rainfall has largely failed to reverse long-term trends.  Prolonged
periods (several weeks) of slightly-above normal to above-normal
rainfall are still required to reverse these trends without causing
significant flooding concerns.  At this time, there is a very slight
chance for flash flooding across Upstate South Carolina, western
North Carolina, and northeast Georgia through the period.  Flooding
of major tributaries or mainstem rivers is very unlikely.

..IMPORTANT...

While mainstem river flooding does not occur during periods of
drought, it is very important to note that flash flooding and
flooding of smaller tributaries is still very possible during periods
of drought.  Flash flooding has already been observed in parts of the
South Carolina Piedmont and North Carolina foothills during this
drought.  Residents are strongly encouraged to heed related flood
advisories and warnings, even during significant drought.


..GROUNDWATER*...

..Well Measurements (Depth Below Ground Surface in Feet)...

                                                      Date of
                              Depth   July**  Record  Record
                              7/12    Median  Lowest  Level
County       City             (ft)    (ft)    (ft)

Burke      Glen Alpine      12.26 | 12.97 | 13.84 | 08/04/08
Caldwell     Granite Falls    18.26 | 18.56 | 24.38 | 11/18/11
Catawba      Oxford Resrch St 38.31 | 39.53 | 42.09 | 01/14/13
Gaston       Pasour Mtn       31.65 | 34.84 | 44.66 | 01/31/13
Mcdowell     Pleasant Gardens 30.79 | 30.05 | 31.88 | 11/29/10
Union (NC)   Mineral Springs  34.84 | 39.45 | 42.70 | 01/10/13
York         York Co Airport  21.74 | 24.00 | 29.69 | 12/13/12

* Note that groundwater is measured as depth below the surface,
unlike streamflow and reservoir data which is the reverse or height
above the surface.  Therefore, the higher the depth value, the less
the groundwater supply because the groundwater level is further from
the surface.

**Current depth values that are larger than the monthly median can be
loosely correlated to drier-than-normal conditions while current
depth values that are smaller than the monthly median can be loosely
correlated to wetter-than-normal conditions.

                                                      Date of
                              Depth   %ile    Record  Record
                              7/12    ***     Lowest  Level
County       City             (ft)            (ft)


Anderson     Williamston       2.76 | 75-90 |  5.98 | 06/25/02
Chester      Leeds Road       86.10 | >90th | 94.52 | 01/12/14
Davie        Mocksville       16.36 | 50-75 | 23.15 | 08/30/02
Haywood     near Cruso        5.99 | 10-25 |  6.96 | 09/12/02
Iredell     Langtree         24.45 | 25-50 | 32.90 | 06/21/16
Oconee       Oconee Statn Rd  29.00 | 50-75 | 32.08 | 12/31/08
Rowan        Barber            7.98 | 25-50 | 11.01 | 10/02/02
Spartanburg  Croft State Park 45.10 | 25-50 | 51.69 | 03/17/13
Transylvania Blantyre         29.81 | 25-50 | 42.19 | 12/12/08
Transylvania Pisgah Forest    16.52 | 10-25 | 17.86 | 08/25/08

***The percentile (%ile) values can be interpreted as follows:

Less than 10th percentile    - Well-Below Normal
10th-25th percentile         - Below Normal
25th-50th percentile         - Slightly Below Normal/Near Normal
50th-75th percentile         - Slightly Above Normal/Near Normal
75th-90th percentile         - Above Normal
Greater than 90th percentile - Well-Above Normal

..SOIL and CROP MOISTURE*...

Total soil moisture anomalies as of July 11th range from
20 mm to 60 mm below normal across the North Carolina mountains,
northeast Georgia and Upstate South Carolina, with near-normal soil
moisture values across the North Carolina foothills and Piedmont.

The Crop Moisture Index from the Climate Prediction Center indicates
near-normal crop moisture values across the North Carolina mountains,
foothills, and Piedmont and excessively dry values across northeast
Georgia and Upstate South Carolina.

*Note that above-normal temperatures and below-normal precipitation
exacerbate the loss of soil moisture through evapotranspiration,
while below-normal temperatures and above-normal precipitation
mitigates soil-moisture deficits.  Evapotranspiration is the loss of
moisture from the soil to the atmosphere plus the loss of moisture
from the soil to vegetation.

..STREAMFLOW*...

..Carolina State Summaries...

As of July 10, of the 37 total ranked streamflow observing
stations across South Carolina, 14 percent of those stations were
experiencing 28-day average streamflows lower than the 10th
percentile, 46 percent of stations were in the 10th-24th
percentile, and 41 percent were in the 25th to 75th percentile.
Zero sites were reporting above the 75th percentile.  In general,
streamflows increase from northwest to southeast across the state.

As of July 10, of the 115 total ranked streamflow observing
stations across North Carolina, 16 percent of those stations were
experiencing 28-day average streamflows lower than the 10th
percentile, 11 percent were in the 10th to 24th percentile, 56
percent were in the 25th to 75th percentile, 12 percent were in the
76th to 90th percentile, and 5 percent of streamflows were above the
90th percentile.  In general, the highest streamflows were reported
in central North Carolina.

..28-Day Average Streamflow Percentiles by Region...

Region         % of      %ile    Classification
               Normal
               (7/11)    (7/11)  (7/11)

NC Piedmont     33- 99 | 23-68 | Near Normal
NC Foothills    39- 79 |  9-63 | Below Normal
NC Nrn Mnts     32- 53 |  6-26 | Well Below Normal
NC Cntl Mnts    21- 62 |  3-16 | Well Below Normal
NC Srn Mnts     44- 51 |  3-22 | Well Below Normal

SC Mnts/        32- 57 |  4-46 | Below Normal
   Foothills
SC Piedmont     21- 63 |  9-45 | Below Normal

GA NE Mnts/     24- 57 |  2-15 | Well Below Normal
   Foothills
GA Piedmont     30- 38 | 10-31 | Below Normal

..28-Day Average Streamflow Percentiles by River System...

River Basin         % of      %ile    Classification
                    Normal
                    (7/11)    (7/11)  (7/11)

Broad (GA)           30- 36 | 10-18 | Below Normal
Broad (NC/SC)        49- 69 | 17-39 | Slightly Below Normal
Catawba              39- 87 |  9-52 | Slightly Below Normal
Enoree/Tyger         27- 69 | 10-43 | Slightly Below Normal
French Broad         20- 50 |  3-17 | Well Below Normal
Nantahala/Tuckasegee 44- 73 |  3-38 | Well Below Normal
Little Tennessee/
Piegon               35- 57 |  3-10 | Well Below Normal
Rocky/Yadkin         33-101 | 23-68 | Near Normal
Saluda               39- 66 |  8-45 | Below Normal
Tallulah/Chattooga   24- 57 |  4-15 | Well Below Normal
Toxaway/Keowee/      29- 52 | 13-31 | Below Normal
Savannah

*Please note that streamflows along regulated rivers (i.e., rivers
with reservoirs) may be influenced positively and/or negatively by
the control of releases from those reservoirs.

..RESERVOIRS...

..Pool Elevations (in feet)...

                         Full    Elev    Elev             Min
Reservoir                Pool    7/1     7/13     Change  Elev*
                         (ft)    (ft)    (ft)     (ft)    (ft)

CATAWBA SYSTEM

James (BRWN7)           100.0 |  97.32 |  97.07 | -0.25 |  95.0
Rhodhiss (RHON7)        100.0 |  97.76 |  97.40 | -0.36 |  94.0
Hickory (OXFN7)         100.0 |  97.42 |  97.36 | -0.06 |  94.0
Lookout Shoals (LKSN7)  100.0 |  97.73 |  97.55 | -0.18 |  94.0
Norman (CWAN7)          100.0 |  97.75 |  97.80 | +0.05 |  95.0
Mountain Island (MOUN7) 100.0 |  96.66 |  97.00 | +0.34 |  94.3
Wylie (FOMS1)           100.0 |  97.33 |  97.07 | -0.26 |  94.0
Fishing Creek (FCDS1)   100.0 |  98.68 |  98.47 | -0.21 |  95.0
Great Falls (GTFS1)     100.0 |  97.60 |  96.83 | -0.77 |  95.0
Cedar Creek (CDCS1)     100.0 |  97.51 |  98.07 | +0.56 |  96.0

LITTLE TENNESSEE SYSTEM

Tanasee Creek (EFKN7)   100.0 |  93.36 |  92.30 | -1.06 |  90.0
Bear Creek    (BCDN7)   100.0 |  96.67 |  92.35 | -4.32 |  92.0
Cedar Cliff   (ICCN7)   100.0 |  96.94 |  97.20 | +0.26 |  96.0
Glenville     (THPN7)   100.0 |  95.95 |  96.02 | +0.07 |  94.2
Tuckasegee    (WCDN7)   100.0 |  93.05 |  90.23 | -2.82 |    NA
Nantahala     (NANN7)   100.0 |  93.68 |  92.55 | -1.13 |  92.2

SAVANNAH SYSTEM

Jocassee      (JCSS1)   100.0 |  98.52 |  98.84 | +0.32 |  86.0
Keowee        (KEOS1)   100.0 |  97.67 |  97.85 | +0.18 |  96.0
Hartwell      (HRTG1)   660.0 | 658.02 | 657.05 | -0.97 | 625.0
Russell       (RBDS1)   475.0 | 473.78 | 474.36 | +0.58 | 470.0

* The minimal elevation is the lowest elevation that the pool can be
while meeting local community and river system needs.  Drought
release reduction plans may begin above the minimal elevation.  For
Lake Hartwell and Richard B. Russell Lake, the minimal elevation
marks the beginning of conservation storage.  Drought release
reduction plans begin at or above the minimal elevation, at 656.0
feet at Lake Hartwell and at 470.0 feet for Richard B. Russell Lake.

..OUTLOOK...

The overall weather pattern suggests near-normal precipitation will
be most likely across much of the region heading into the latter
third of July.  However, temperatures will remain at least near
normal to slightly above normal through the period, which means
evapotranspiration rates or the rate of moisture loss from the soil
to vegetation and the atmosphere will continue to be at least
seasonable if not above normal due to ongoing stresses.  This will
result in little improvement in the drought where drought conditions
currently exist but low likelihood of drought conditions spreading
into the unaffected areas of the North Carolina foothills and
Piedmont.

Region         Current Drought          Drought Forecast
                                        (7/12-7/26)

NC Piedmont    NO-D0 (Abnormally Dry) | No Change
NC Foothills   NO-D1 (Moderate)       | Slight Improvement
NC Nrn Mnts    D0-D1 (Moderate)       | Little Change
NC Cntl Mnts   D1-D2 (Severe)         | Little Change
NC Srn Mnts    D1-D2 (Severe)         | Little Change

SC Mnts/       D0-D2 (Severe)         | Slight Deterioration
   Foothills
SC Piedmont    D0-D3 (Extreme)        | Slight Deterioration

GA NE Mnts/    D2    (Severe)         | Slight Deterioration
   Foothills
GA Piedmont    D2-D3 (Extreme)        | Slight Deterioration

NEXT ISSUANCE DATE...

An intermediate Drought Information Statement will be
issued in late July or early August.  An intermediate statement is
an abbreviated version of the Drought Information Statement
with basic information designed to keep interested parties
up-to-date with the latest drought classifications and observations.
The next primary Drought Information Statement will be issued in
mid- to late August if D1 conditions still exist anywhere within
the region.

ACKNOWLEDGMENTS...

The U.S. Drought Monitor /USDM/ is a multi-agency effort involving
NOAA/s National Weather Service /NWS/ and the National Centers for
Environmental Information...the U.S. Department of Agriculture
/USDA/...the U.S. Geological Survey /USGS/...state departments of
agriculture...the U.S. Forest Service /USFS/...state forest
services...the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers /USACE/...private
reservoir operators...state and regional climatologists...and the
National Drought Mitigation Center /NDMC/.

County-specific drought categories are derived from the NDMC`s USDM.

Agricultural information is derived from the USDA...the Climate
Prediction Center /CPC/...the North Carolina Department of
Agriculture and Consumer Services...and the National Integrated
Drought Information System.

Fire Danger classifications are courtesy of the USFS...the Georgia
Forestry Commission...and the North Carolina Forest Service.

The precipitation analysis is derived from quality-controlled
gridded precipitation estimates produced at the Lower Mississippi
River Forecast Center and the Southeast River Forecast Center.

The precipitation and temperature outlook is derived from guidance
produced at the CPC.

Groundwater levels and records are courtesy of the USGS.

Reservoir information is courtesy of Duke Energy...Georgia Power...
and the USACE.

Additional impact information is gathered from various media reports
as available.

RESOURCES...

NDMC`s USDM...
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu

USDM Classification Definitions...
http://droughtmonitor.unl.edu/AboutUs/ClassificationScheme.aspx

North Carolina Drought Mitigation Advisory Council...
http://www.ncwater.org/drought/

South Carolina Drought Response Committee...
http://www.dnr.sc.gov/climate/sco/Drought/drought_current_info.php

River Conditions and Forecasts via the NWS...
http://www.weather.gov/ahps/

Streamflow Conditions via the USGS...
http://water.usgs.gov/waterwatch

Mid-Term and Long-Term Precipitation and Temperature Outlooks
via the CPC...
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/

QUESTIONS or COMMENTS...

This product has undergone several revisions and enhancements
during the last drought period.  Additional enhancements
are planned for future drought statements. Your feedback and
recommendations are encouraged in order to ensure this product
meets user needs.  Please direct feedback...recommendations...
questions...and comments to:

National Weather Service
Weather Forecast Office - Greenville-Spartanburg
1549 GSP Drive
Greer SC 29651
Phone 864-848-9970
joshua.palmer@noaa.gov

$$

JMP



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