Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Cleveland, OH

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Winter/Spring Flood Potential Outlook
National Weather Service CLEVELAND OH
106 PM EST Thu Feb 15 2018

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...
ABOVE NORMAL RISK OF FLOODING THROUGH THE END OF FEBRUARY

This is the forth winter flood potential outlook of the winter
season. Flood outlooks are issued every two weeks in the winter
and spring to highlight any risks for significant flooding. The
outlooks are based on the basin and forecast conditions. This
includes snow cover and water equivalent, creek and river levels
and their extent of ice coverage, along with the expected
conditions during the next two weeks.

...FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...
Based on current conditions and weather forecasts for the next two
weeks, the risk of flooding is above normal. Wet conditions will
start off the outlook period which will continue under an active
weather pattern through the end of February. River streamflows
will remain above normal with an elevated risk of rivers reaching
moderate or major flood levels.

...CURRENT CONDITIONS SUMMARY...
The antecedent conditions that contribute to flood risk are stored
water in the snowpack, extent of river ice, and status of area
streamflows. At the time of this issuance, area rivers and creeks
were running higher than normal due to a recent thaw. The area
snowpack was almost entirely melted off with only a few patches of
snow in the higher terrain of the snowbelt. Ice spotters have
reported many rivers and creeks with ice floes or ice shields.
The ice thickness was generally 6 inches or less and doesnt pose
a significant threat for ice jam flooding.

The following is a summary of the conditions by basin with
measurable snowpack as of Thursday morning, February 15, 2018:

...FRENCH CREEK / LAKE ERIE BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........1 to 4 inches
.WATER EQUIVALENT....0.1  to 0.3 inches
.CREEK FLOWS.........Above normal
.CREEK ICE...........Patchy along the banks
.GROUND STATE........Completely frozen

...GRAND RIVER / CHAGRIN RIVER / LAKE ERIE BASIN...
.SNOW COVER..........1 to 2 inches
.WATER EQUIVALENT....0.1 to 0.25 inches
.RIVER FLOWS.........Above normal
.RIVER ICE...........Partially frozen, ice floes
.GROUND STATE........ Completely frozen

...TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...
The weather pattern over the next few weeks will favor above normal
temperatures and above normal rainfall. A stationary front is
expected to set up across the region extending from the lower
Great Lakes down through the Ohio Valley and into Texas. The flow
generated from this set-up will favor increased storm activity
with moisture support from the Gulf of Mexico. The above normal
temperatures will prevent any notable snowpack from developing,
however the persistent wet pattern will likely keep creeks and
rivers in a high-flow state.

...ADDITIONAL INFORMATION...
Real time river information and probabilistic forecast for
specific  locations along rivers across the region can be found
on the internet at www.weather.gov/cle. Since conditions can
change, please refer to the latest flood watches, warnings, and
statements for additional information.on the basin and forecast
conditions. This includes snow cover and water equivalent, creek
and river levels and the amount of ice on them, along with the
expected conditions during the next two weeks.



$$



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