Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Wichita, KS

Home | Current Version | Previous Version | Text Only | Print | Product List | Glossary On
Versions: 1 2 3 4 5 6
000
FGUS73 KICT 161445
ESFICT
KSC01-009-015-017-019-035-049-053-073-077-079-095-099-105-113-115-
125-133-155-159-167-169-173-191-205-207-172300-

Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Wichita KS
845 AM CST THU FEB 16 2017

...Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...

This outlook applies to the Wichita Hydrologic Service area (HSA)
which includes the Arkansas River...Smoky Hill River...Verdigris
River and Neosho River and their tributaries in central...south
central and southeast Kansas.

...There is a normal potential of flooding along most streams and
rivers this spring...

Outlooks are routinely issued in February and March to give
advanced notice of possible flooding. They are based on soil
moisture, snowpack magnitude and streamflow at the time the outlook
is issued. The vast majority of flood events in the Wichita Service
Area result from short periods of higher intensity precipitation or
longer periods of excessive precipitation.

This outlook is valid from February 16th through March 2nd, 2017.

The outlook is based on current climatological conditions. However,
heavy rainfall at any time can lead to flooding, even when the
snowmelt flood potential is low. Convection, not snowmelt is often
the primary driver of spring flooding in the service area.

Currently we are snow-free across the entire service area. Snowfall
this winter season has been below normal. For the season so far, 2-4
inches of accumulated snow has occurred across central KS and parts
of south central KS. Mainly 1-2 inches of snow accumulation fell
across the rest of south central KS and southeast KS with a few areas
only recording less than an inch. Snowfall deficits are between 5 to
10 inches across the area or only receiving 10 to 25 percent of its
normal value. Frozen soils have been minimal during this season. Mid
to late December frost depth penetration ranged between 1 to 5 inches
and the early part of January soils were frozen by 2 to 5 inches. At
this time, soils are not frozen.

Precipitation over the long term, the past 6 months, is mainly above
normal across the area. Generally the area has received 110 to 150
percent of normal moisture.

Precipitation over the last 3 months has been 50 to 70 percent of its
normal value over the eastern half of the service area. In contast,
the western half of the service area has basked in slightly above
normal precipitation.

In the very short-term this last month, central and south central KS
has received between 200 to 400 percent of its normal January
precipitation. Southeast KS has received 125 to 200 percent of its
normal precipitation.

Temperatures have been mostly above normal over the last couple of
months by up to 3 degrees above.

January soil moisture anomaly data shows a slight surplus in moisture
across south central KS. Otherwise soil moisture levels are near
normal over the remainder of the service area.

The latest U.S. Drought Monitor issued February 16th 2017...
(http://www.droughtmonitor.unl.edu) indicates Abnormally Dry
Conditions (D0) cover southeast KS and along the OK border counties
in south central KS. Otherwise, no drought is present across the
remainder of the service area. Light precipitation fell across the
area on Monday this week.

The Climate Prediction Center`s (CPC) U.S. Seasonal Drought Outlook
valid through end of April 2017, indicates no drought development
likely across eastern KS.

The U.S. Geological Survey 28-day average streamflow conditions map
shows near normal flows across central and southeast KS while south
central KS is experiencing slightly above normal flows.
(http://waterwatch.usgs.gov).

The area reservoirs are slightly in their flood control pools. The
U.S. Corps of Engineers data indicates that the Corps reservoirs
currently have an average of 99 percent of their flood-control
storage available at this time.

The Climate Prediction Center (CPC) Outlook for the 3 month period
March-April-May, calls for equal chances of normal, above normal, and
below normal precipitation. Above normal temperatures are favored
across the area.

The 8-14 day CPC Outlook (http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov) indicates
stronger probabilities leaning toward above normal temperatures and
slightly favored above normal precipitation over the area. In the
near future, precipitation chances increase by the end of this
weekend into Monday night. Light rain amounts expected.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

CS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on current conditions.

HS values indicate the probability of reaching a flood category
based on historical or normal conditions.

When the value of CS is more than HS...the probability of
exceeding that level is higher than normal. When the value of CS is
less than HS...the probability of exceeding that level is lower
than normal.

...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  02/16/2017 - 04/26/2017

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (FT)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Arkansas River
Great Bend          12.0   16.0   18.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Hutchinson           8.0   13.0   19.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Haven               10.0   11.0   12.0 :   6    6    5   <5   <5   <5
Derby               12.0   15.0   16.2 :   8    5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Mulvane             16.5   19.0   21.0 :   9    5    7   <5    6   <5
Oxford              17.0   20.0   23.0 :  22    8   11   <5   <5   <5
Arkansas City       11.0   17.0   21.0 :  35   25    6   <5   <5   <5
:Walnut Creek
Albert              24.0   25.0   25.7 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cow Creek
Lyons               18.0   22.0   24.7 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Hutchinson           9.5   10.5   12.5 :  36   13   26   <5   <5   <5
:Little Arkansas River
Alta Mills          22.0   25.0   27.0 :  14    8    7    5   <5   <5
Halstead            25.0   27.0   29.0 :  12    6    5   <5   <5   <5
Sedgwick            22.0   25.0   26.0 :   9    6    6   <5    6   <5
:Cowskin Creek
Wichita At 119th    18.0   22.0   24.0 :  12   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Ninnescah South Fork
Murdock              8.0   10.0   12.0 :  20    9    8   <5   <5   <5
:Ninnescah River
Peck                17.0   21.0   26.0 :  10   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Belle Plaine        23.0   24.5   26.0 :   8   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Whitewater River
Towanda             22.0   25.0   28.0 :  12   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Augusta             21.0   25.0   30.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:West Branch Walnut River
El Dorado           21.0   22.0   24.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Walnut River
El Dorado           19.0   23.0   25.6 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Augusta             23.0   28.0   36.0 :  <5   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
Winfield            18.0   22.0   29.0 :  23   10    8    5   <5   <5
Arkansas City       18.0   22.0   28.0 :   7   <5   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Chikaskia River
Corbin              10.0   19.0   28.0 :  38   27   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Fall River
Fredonia            17.0   27.0   36.0 :  16   15   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Verdigris River
Altoona             19.0   21.0   26.0 :  11   11   <5   <5   <5   <5
Independence        30.0   47.6   53.0 :  19   17   <5   <5   <5   <5
Coffeyville         18.0   23.0   26.5 :   8   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Cottonwood River
Florence            22.0   27.0   32.0 :  17    6   <5   <5   <5   <5
Cottonwood Falls     9.0   11.0   18.0 :  16    8    8   <5   <5   <5
Plymouth            32.0   34.0   37.0 :  14   11    7   <5   <5   <5
:Neosho River
Iola                15.0   21.0   27.0 :  10   13   <5   <5   <5   <5
Chanute             23.0   28.5   35.0 :  21   19    9    8   <5   <5
Erie                29.0   32.0   36.0 :  22   20   16   15    9    8
Parsons             21.0   23.0   32.0 :  37   34   29   28   <5   <5
Oswego              17.0   20.0   25.0 :  38   31   28   21    5    6
:Salt Creek
Barnard             21.0   23.3   24.9 :  14   16   11   15   <5   <5
:Saline River
Lincoln             30.0   36.0   38.5 :  27   27    8    8   <5   <5
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg           21.0   29.0   33.9 :  26   23   <5   <5   <5   <5
Mentor              20.0   24.0   28.0 :  10   18   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Mulberry Creek
Salina              24.0   26.0   27.4 :  25   33   16   15   <5   <5
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria         27.0   30.0   33.1 :  26   35   16   19    6    7
Russell             18.0   20.0   38.0 :  <5    7   <5    6   <5   <5
Ellsworth           20.0   24.0   27.0 :   7   10   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Saline River
Russell             18.0   20.0   23.0 :   5    8   <5   <5   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 01/26/2017 - 04/26/2017
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Arkansas River
Great Bend            1.4    1.4    1.4    1.8    4.1    5.9    6.8
Hutchinson            1.3    1.4    1.8    2.6    3.6    4.7    5.0
Haven                 2.6    2.8    3.8    4.8    7.1    8.2   11.2
Derby                 2.1    2.7    4.0    5.4    7.9   11.3   14.7
Mulvane               7.1    7.7    8.8   10.2   12.8   16.3   22.8
Oxford                8.7    9.4   10.9   12.5   16.1   20.6   21.0
Arkansas City         4.7    5.5    7.4    9.0   12.4   16.3   17.2
:Walnut Creek
Albert                3.5    3.5    3.6    6.1    9.9   15.1   18.4
:Cow Creek
Lyons                 4.6    5.2    8.1   11.3   15.0   16.4   17.4
Hutchinson            2.2    3.2    5.3    8.0   10.7   11.1   11.3
:Little Arkansas River
Alta Mills            1.3    3.7    7.6   11.9   17.1   24.2   25.8
Halstead              6.5    8.0   11.2   14.8   19.4   26.0   27.2
Sedgwick              4.3    5.2    6.8   10.3   14.8   20.9   27.4
:Cowskin Creek
Wichita At 119th      7.8    9.4   11.5   13.6   16.5   18.3   19.2
:Ninnescah South Fork
Murdock               4.1    4.1    4.6    5.6    7.1    9.8   10.8
:Ninnescah River
Peck                  4.5    4.5    6.1    9.2   13.9   17.1   19.0
Belle Plaine         11.4   11.4   12.7   14.9   18.4   22.2   24.3
:Whitewater River
Towanda               3.0    5.0    7.9   11.6   15.2   23.4   24.4
Augusta               5.2    6.1    7.5    9.4   11.1   16.8   18.4
:West Branch Walnut River
El Dorado             6.2    7.4    8.2    9.1   11.5   14.7   17.6
:Walnut River
El Dorado             2.8    3.0    3.5    4.4    6.9   10.1   11.3
Augusta               6.4    6.7    7.4    9.1   14.1   18.5   21.5
Winfield              3.3    4.9    7.3   11.4   17.7   21.1   24.0
Arkansas City         4.9    6.2    8.4   10.8   14.5   17.5   18.7
:Chikaskia River
Corbin                2.7    3.7    6.1    8.5   11.7   13.9   16.5
:Fall River
Fredonia              5.3    5.3    7.8    9.8   13.8   19.4   24.9
:Verdigris River
Altoona               4.7    5.1    8.6   10.3   15.4   19.5   20.1
Independence          7.3    7.7   13.6   17.3   26.6   35.3   38.5
Coffeyville           1.7    1.8    3.8    6.3   12.4   17.3   19.3
:Cottonwood River
Florence              4.4    4.9    5.7   10.8   18.1   25.6   26.0
Cottonwood Falls      2.1    2.4    3.0    4.7    6.6   10.7   12.0
Plymouth              6.8    7.7    9.4   17.0   26.9   33.9   34.2
:Neosho River
Iola                  7.6    8.0    9.1    9.9   11.6   15.2   19.1
Chanute              10.1   10.7   13.9   16.9   21.4   27.9   32.1
Erie                 13.9   14.6   18.5   22.6   27.4   35.7   38.3
Parsons              10.0   11.1   14.2   18.0   24.1   26.6   27.9
Oswego                8.2    9.3   10.7   13.3   21.1   23.8   25.2
:Salt Creek
Barnard               4.9    4.9    7.6    9.3   13.9   23.8   24.3
:Saline River
Lincoln              11.3   12.9   13.8   19.7   31.2   34.7   38.4
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg             6.3    6.9    8.4   13.4   21.2   23.6   27.4
Mentor                4.0    4.6    6.0   10.5   17.8   19.8   22.7
:Mulberry Creek
Salina                2.9    3.1    5.2    9.0   23.9   26.4   26.7
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria          11.6   13.5   17.5   22.9   27.4   31.0   33.9
Russell               3.5    3.5    4.0    6.1    9.0   12.0   16.3
Ellsworth             1.5    1.5    3.0    5.9    9.0   15.0   21.1
:Saline River
Russell               5.8    5.8    6.5    8.6   11.5   15.4   18.1

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 01/26/2017 - 04/26/2017
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Salt Creek
Barnard               4.9    4.8    4.8    4.8    4.7    4.7    4.7
:Saline River
Lincoln              11.2   11.2   11.2   11.1   11.0   10.9   10.9
:Smoky Hill River
Lindsborg             6.1    6.1    6.1    6.1    6.1    6.1    6.1
Mentor                3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8    3.8
:Mulberry Creek
Salina                2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.9    2.8    2.8
:Smoky Hill River
New Cambria           5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0    5.0
Russell               3.5    3.5    3.4    2.0    2.0    2.0    2.0
Ellsworth             1.4    1.4    1.4    1.2    1.1    1.1    1.0
:Saline River
Russell               5.7    5.7    5.5    5.4    5.4    5.3    5.3

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range planning
decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts are part
of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic Prediction
Service.

Based upon the above information, there is a normal risk of spring
flooding across the Wichita Service Area.

The next scheduled Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook will be
issued March 2nd.

Visit our home page at
www.weather.gov/wichita for more weather and flood information.

$$

Salazar





















USA.gov is the U.S. government's official web portal to all federal, state and local government web resources and services.