Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Jackson, MS

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FGUS74 KJAN 021908
ESFJAN
ARZ074-075-LAZ007>009-015-016-023>026-MSZ018-019-025>066-072>074-
101200-

Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Jackson MS
1 PM CST THU MAR 02 2017

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

...FLOOD RISK IS BELOW AVERAGE ACROSS THE TOMBIGBEE RIVER SYSTEM...
...FLOOD RISE IS AVERAGE ACROSS THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST AREA...

This outlook considers rainfall which has already fallen,
snowpack,soil moisture, streamflow, and the 90 day rainfall and
temperature outlook. The primary factor in the development of
significant river flooding across the WFO Jackson Forecast Area is
the occurrence of excessive rainfall in a relatively short period of
time.

SYNOPSIS...

Over the past several months, below normal precipitation
has occurred over the lower Missouri and middle Mississippi Valleys.
Warmer temperatures have kept areas in the lower Mississippi River
Valley from receiving significant snow this season. Snow depths of 2
to 4 inches are confined to portions of Minnesota, Wisconsin, and
north Iowa. Snow water equivalents are generally 0.5 inches or less.
The remainder of the area is snow free. Soil moisture conditions are
generally below normal over the lower Missouri and middle
Mississippi Valleys and near normal over lower Ohio Valley.

Across the ARKLAMISS Region, temperatures have been well above
normal for the first two months of the year. Vegetation is beginning
to grow earlier than normal. Higher evapotranspiration rates than
normal are already occurring. Rainfall since the first of the year
is running at or below normal with only a few isolated areas having
above normal rainfall. Soil moisture is at or below normal across the
region.


MISSISSIPPI RIVER FROM ARKANSAS CITY TO NATCHEZ...

The flood season has been uneventful on the Ohio and Mississippi
Rivers. Streamflows have been near to below normal and no flooding
has occurred this season. The current forecast shows no flooding
over the next couple of weeks but higher flows will occur later
into March.

See the chart below for specific locations showing percent of normal
streamflows:
                                            3/1
Mississippi River             Thebes IL     111%
Ohio River                     Cairo IL      67%
Mississippi River            Memphis TN      36%
Mississippi River      Arkansas City AR      49%
Mississippi River          Vicksburg MS      66%
Mississippi River            Natchez MS      70%
Mississippi River  Red River Landing LA      75%
Mississippi River        Baton Rouge LA      74%
Mississippi River        New Orleans LA      74%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflow conditions, and normal
spring rainfall patterns; an Average Flood Potential is expected
along the lower Mississippi and lower Ohio Rivers. The magnitude of
future crests will depend on the amount and extent of any upstream
accumulation of snow cover and resultant snowmelt; coupled with the
frequency, intensity, and extent of spring rains.


OUACHITA/BLACK BASINS OF SOUTHEAST ARKANSAS AND NORTHEAST
LOUISIANA...

Streamflows are running near and below seasonal averages. Soil
moisture content is near normal and no flooding is occurring or
expected at this time.

Observed daily streamflows as a percent of mean are given below:
                                             3/1
Bayou Bartholomew             Portland AR     52%
Bayou Bartholomew                Jones LA     27%
Tensas                          Tendal LA     69%
Bayou Macon                     Eudora AR     28%
Ouachita River                  Monroe LA     82%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring
rainfall patterns; an Average Flood Potential is expected over the
Ouachita and Black River Basins.


BIG BLACK AND HOMOCHITTO RIVER BASINS...

Soil moisture and streamflows have been seasonal to below seasonal
averages. No flooding is occurring or expected over the next several
days.

Observed daily streamflows as a percent of mean are given below:
                                             3/1
Big Black River                   West MS     64%
Big Black River                 Bovina MS     24%
Homochitto River               Rosetta MS     15%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring
rainfall patterns; an Average Flood Potential is expected over the
Big Black River Basin.


YAZOO BASIN...

Streamflows are running below seasonal averages. Soil moisture
content is near seasonal averages and no flooding is expected during
the next several days.

Observed Daily Streamflows as a percent of normal:
                                              3/1
Tallahatchie                     Money MS      27%
Big Sunflower                Sunflower MS      30%

Percent of available flood control storage is given below.

                                             3/1
                        Arkabutla Res. MS     86%
                           Sardis Res. MS     85%
                             Enid Res. MS     86%
                          Grenada Res. MS     91%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring
rainfall patterns; an Average Flood Potential is expected over the
Yazoo River Basin.


PEARL RIVER BASIN...

Heavy rainfall near the end of January produced some minor flooding
along tributaries in the Upper Pearl and along the mainstem of the
lower Pearl River. For the last month, soil moisture content and
streamflows have been normal to below seasonal averages. No flooding
is occurring or expected over the next several days.

Observed daily streamflows as a percent of mean are given below:
                                              3/1
Pearl River                   Carthage MS      26%
Pearl River                    Jackson MS      38%
Pearl River                 Monticello MS      34%
Pearl River                   Columbia MS      18%


Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring
rainfall patterns; an Average Flood Potential is expected over the
Pearl River Basin.


PASCAGOULA RIVER BASIN INCLUDING THE LEAF AND CHICKASAWHAY SUB-
BASINS...

Seasonal rainfall in January produced minor to moderate rises. No
flooding is occurring or expected over the next several days.
Soil moisture content is near seasonal levels while streamflows are
running below normal.

Observed daily streamflows as a percent of mean are given below:
                                              3/1
Leaf River                    Collins MS       50%
Leaf River                Hattiesburg MS       38%
Tallahala Creek                Laurel MS       32%
Chickasawhay River         Enterprise MS       39%
Black Creek                  Brooklyn MS       49%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring
rainfall patterns; an Average Flood Potential is expected over the
Pascagoula River Basin.


TOMBIGBEE RIVER IN MISSISSIPPI...

Soil moisture content and streamflows have been normal seasonal
averages. No flooding is occurring or expected over the next several
days.

Observed daily streamflows as a percent of mean are given below:
                                              3/1
Tombigbee River                Bigbee MS       77%
Buttahatchee River           Aberdeen MS       62%
Luxapallila Creek            Columbus MS       21%
Noxubee River                   Macon MS       18%

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and normal spring
rainfall patterns;an below average flood potential is expected
across the Tombigbee Basin.


EXTENDED TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION OUTLOOK...

The 8-14 Day Outlook issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center
indicates chances of above normal temperatures. Southeast of the
Natchez Trace, there are equal chances of above normal, normal, and
below normal rainfall. Northwest of the Trace, there is chance for
above normal rainfall. Across the Lower Mississippi Valley, most of
the area can expect above normal rainfall.

The 30 Day Outlook indicates chances of above normal temperatures
across the area. Equal chances of above/below normal precipitation
is indicated over the lower Mississippi Valley.

The 90 Day Outlook issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center
indicates chances of above normal temperatures over the lower
Mississippi Valley. Equal chances of above/below normal
precipitation is indicated over the lower Mississippi Valley.

This will be the last scheduled spring flood outlook for 2017.


$$
MVP



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