Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071-079-
081-085-087-103-119-112000-

WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
925 AM EDT THU APR 27 2017

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...

THIS IS THE LAST SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A SERIES OF
ROUTINE SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO PROVIDE
INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH
FLOODING)OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE
FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER
AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE WEATHER
CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS THE SEVERITY
OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM
MAY 2ND THROUGH THE 6TH SUGGESTS NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES
AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.
THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK VALID FROM MAY 4TH THROUGH THE 10TH SUGGESTS
BELOW NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE
HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER FLOODING.
IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY CAUSE RIVER
FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL RIVER FLOOD
POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

PRECIPITATION - YEAR TO DATE...PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES HAVE BEEN
BELOW NORMAL ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY... NEW YORK CITY 5
BOROUGHS...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT AND LONG ISLAND. PRECIPITATION
DEPARTURES ACROSS NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY HAVE BEEN NORMAL TO ABOVE
NORMAL.

SNOW DEPTH AND WATER EQUIVALENT - THERE IS CURRENTLY NO SNOW ACROSS
THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

RIVER FLOWS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA...FLOWS
ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NEAR NORMAL TO BELOW NORMAL. REAL-
TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT
WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER.

SOIL MOISTURE - BELOW NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT RELATED DATA
AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT: WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY
WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM WAS 1 PERCENT ABOVE NORMAL. RESERVOIR LEVELS
ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY RESERVOIRS ARE 6 PERCENT
ABOVE NORMAL.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF.

$$



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