Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Upton, NY

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FGUS71 KOKX 031437
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CTC001-007-009-011-NJC003-013-017-031-039-NYC005-047-059-061-071-
079-081-085-087-103-119-171445-

SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY
1037 AM EDT THU APR 3 2014

...SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK...NUMBER 7...

THIS IS THE SEVENTH SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL OUTLOOK IN A SERIES OF
ROUTINE WINTER/SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL STATEMENTS INTENDED TO
PROVIDE INSIGHT INTO THE LIKELIHOOD OF RIVER FLOODING (NOT FLASH
FLOODING) OVER THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...NORTHEASTERN NEW
JERSEY...SOUTHERN CONNECTICUT...NEW YORK CITY AND LONG ISLAND.

THIS OUTLOOK IS BASED ON A CURRENT ASSESSMENT OF HYDRO-
METEOROLOGICAL FACTORS WHICH CONTRIBUTE TO RIVER FLOODING. THESE
FACTORS INCLUDE RECENT PRECIPITATION...SOIL MOISTURE...SNOW COVER
AND SNOW WATER EQUIVALENT...RIVER ICE...STREAM-FLOW...FUTURE
WEATHER CONDITIONS...AND OTHERS. THIS OUTLOOK DOES NOT ADDRESS
THE SEVERITY OF ANY FUTURE RIVER FLOODING.

THE LATEST CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER 6 TO 10 DAY OUTLOOK VALID
FROM APRIL 8TH THROUGH APRIL 12TH SUGGESTS BELOW NORMAL
TEMPERATURES WITH ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION ACROSS THE HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA. THE 8 TO 14 DAY OUTLOOK FROM APRIL 10TH THROUGH
APRIL 16TH SUGGESTS NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL
PRECIPITATION.

HEAVY RAINFALL IS THE PRIMARY FACTOR WHICH LEADS TO RIVER
FLOODING. IT IS IMPORTANT TO NOTE THAT HEAVY RAINFALL CAN RAPIDLY
CAUSE RIVER FLOODING ANY TIME OF THE YEAR...EVEN WHEN OVERALL
RIVER FLOOD POTENTIAL IS CONSIDERED LOW OR BELOW NORMAL.

CURRENT FLOODING - NONE.

PRECIPITATION - IN THE LAST 30 DAYS...PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES ACROSS
NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY AND THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY HAS BEEN
NORMAL TO ONE INCH ABOVE NORMAL. PRECIPITATION DEPARTURES ACROSS NEW
YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND AND CONNECTICUT HAS BEEN NORMAL TO 4
INCHES ABOVE NORMAL...ESPECIALLY ACROSS EASTERN LONG ISLAND AND
NEW LONDON COUNTY IN CONNECTICUT.

RIVER FLOWS AND ICE CONDITIONS - ACROSS THE LOCAL HYDROLOGIC
SERVICE AREA...FLOWS ACROSS AREA RIVERS AND STREAMS ARE NORMAL.
A FEW STREAM ARE STILL BEING AFFECTED BY RIVER ICE...ESPECIALLY
RIVERS ACROSS THE LOWER HUDSON RIVER VALLEY.
REAL-TIME WATER DATA CAN BE FOUND BY VISITING THE USGS AT
WWW.USGS.GOV/WATER.

THE US COAST GUARD REPORTS ICE CONDITION ON THE HUDSON RIVER...

SANDY HOOK BAY                    NO ICE
LOWER NEW YORK BAY                NO ICE
UPPER NEW YORK BAY                NO ICE
NEWARK BAY                        NO ICE
THROGS NECK BRIDGE                NO ICE
GEORGE WASHINGTON BRIDGE          NO ICE
TAPPAN ZEE TO WEST POINT          NO ICE
WEST POINT TO NEWBURGH            NO ICE
NEWBURGH TO POUGHKEEPSIE          NO ICE

SNOW - CURRENTLY THERE IS NO SNOW COVERING THE GROUND ACROSS
THE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA. BASIN-AVERAGE WATER EQUIVALENT
ESTIMATES CAN BE FOUND AT WWW.NOHRSC.NOAA.GOV.

SOIL MOISTURE - NORMAL TO ABOVE NORMAL. SOIL MOISTURE AND DROUGHT
RELATED DATA AND CHARTS CAN BE SEEN AT:
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV AND WWW.DROUGHT.GOV.

RESERVOIR CONDITIONS - RESERVOIR LEVELS ACROSS THE NEW YORK CITY
WATER SUPPLY SYSTEM WERE ABOUT 2 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL. RESERVOIR
LEVELS ACROSS THE COMBINED 13 NORTHEAST NJ RESERVOIRS WERE AROUND
10 PERCENT BELOW NORMAL.

FUTURE WEATHER CONDITIONS - AT THIS TIME THERE ARE NO INDICATIONS
OF ANY WIDESPREAD HEAVY RAIN EVENTS THROUGH THE TWO WEEK OUTLOOK
PERIOD. THE LATEST 6-10 AND 8-14 DAY EXTENDED WEATHER OUTLOOKS
ISSUED BY THE NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER (CPC) SUGGEST BELOW
NORMAL TO NORMAL TEMPERATURES AND ABOVE NORMAL PRECIPITATION FOR THE
ENTIRE HYDROLOGIC SERVICE AREA.

FOR COMPLETE WEATHER INFORMATION...VISIT OUR WEB SITE AT:
WATER.WEATHER.GOV/AHPS/WATER/TEXTPRODS/VIEW.PHP?WFO=OKX&PROD=ESF.

THE NEXT SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK WILL BE ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE IN
TWO WEEKS...ON APRIL 17, 2014.


$$





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