Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Reno, NV

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SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RENO NV
720 AM PST THU MAR 2 2017

...FLOOD POTENTIAL DUE TO SNOW MELT IS ELEVATED FOR NEVADA AND
EASTERN CALIFORNIA THIS SPRING...

SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL DEPENDS ON SEVERAL FACTORS. THESE INCLUDE
SNOWPACK, SOIL MOISTURE AND UPSTREAM RESERVOIR STORAGE, ALONG WITH
AIR TEMPERATURE AND RAINFALL DURING THE SNOW MELT PERIOD.

OVERALL PRECIPITATION THIS WATER YEAR HAS BEEN MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR MOST OF NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA. THIS INCREASED
PRECIPITATION HAS LED TO HIGH FLOWS AND NUMEROUS FLOOD EVENTS IN THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND ALONG THE HUMBOLDT AND IT`S TRIBUTARIES. MOST
RESERVOIRS NOW HAVE ABOVE AVERAGE STORAGE. THE ONLY AREAS THAT HAVE
SEEN LESS THAN AVERAGE PRECIPITATION THIS WATER YEAR ARE PORTIONS OF
NYE AND LINCOLN COUNTIES.

SNOWPACK IN NORTHEAST AND NORTHERN NEVADA REMAINS MUCH ABOVE AVERAGE
FOR EARLY MARCH. IN THE EASTERN SIERRA AND NORTHWEST NEVADA,
DECEMBER RAINS AND NEAR RECORD JANUARY AND FEBRUARY RAIN AND SNOW
RESULTED IN NEAR RECORD SNOWPACK FOR EARLY MARCH.

BASED ON CURRENT CONDITIONS, THE CHANCES FOR FLOODING DURING THE
SPRING SNOWMELT SEASON IS DEFINITELY ELEVATED THIS YEAR FOR THE
EASTERN SIERRA AND THE HUMBOLDT BASIN AND ITS TRIBUTARIES DUE TO THE
MUCH ABOVE NORMAL SNOWPACK, WET SOILS AND PRIMED RIVER SYSTEMS.
FLOODING COULD OCCUR FROM SNOWMELT, RAIN, OR A COMBINATION OF BOTH.
SOME DEGREE OF SNOWMELT FLOODING IS NEARLY CERTAIN IN THE REGION.
THE INTENSITY AND DURATION WILL BE DETERMINED BY FUTURE CONDITIONS.

SHORT-TERM FORECASTS FOR EARLY MARCH INDICATE NEAR NORMAL
PRECIPITATION. LATE WINTER AND SPRING WEATHER WILL PLAY A MAJOR ROLE
IN EXACERBATING OR REDUCING THE MAGNITUDE OF LIKELY SNOWMELT
FLOODING. IF A WET COOL SPRING OCCURS, THE RISK OF MAJOR FLOODING
WILL BE INCREASED. THIS INCREASED RISK IS DRIVEN BY MAINTAINING A
SIGNIFICANT SNOWPACK LATER IN THE SEASON WHEN INCREASED SOLAR ENERGY
AND RAPIDLY WARMING TEMPERATURES COULD COMBINE TO MELT SNOW RAPIDLY.
ANY SIGNIFICANT PROLONGED RAIN DURING THE SNOWMELT PERIOD COULD ALSO
LEAD TO MAJOR FLOODING.

ALSO, MANY OF THE RESERVOIRS IN THE AREA HAVE LIMITED AVAILABLE
CAPACITY WHEN COMPARED WITH THE ANTICIPATED SPRING RUNOFF VOLUME.
THESE RESERVOIRS WILL HAVE SOME ABILITY TO REDUCE FLOODING IMPACTS,
BUT WILL NOT HAVE THE CAPACITY TO COMPLETELY ELIMINATE DOWNSTREAM
FLOODING RISK.

THE AREAS OF HIGHEST CONCERN FOR SNOWMELT FLOODING ARE THE WALKER,
CARSON, AND HUMBOLDT BASINS, AND STREAMS AND CREEKS ALONG THE
EASTERN SIERRA IN MONO COUNTY.

THIS REPORT WILL BE UPDATED WITH ADDITIONAL WATER SUPPLY INFORMATION
WHEN ALL SEASONAL WATER SUPPLY FORECASTS ARE AVAILABLE.

FOR MORE DETAILED WATER SUPPLY AND STREAMFLOW FORECAST INFORMATION
FOR NEVADA AND EASTERN CALIFORNIA...PLEASE REFER TO THE FOLLOWING
WEB SITES. /NOTE...ALL LETTERS IN WEB SITE ADDRESSES ARE LOWER
CASE/...

NWS CALIFORNIA NEVADA RIVER FORECAST CENTER...
HTTP://WWW.CNRFC.NOAA.GOV/WATER_SUPPLY.PHP

NEVADA NATURAL RESOURCES CONSERVATION SERVICE...
HTTP://WWW.NV.NRCS.USDA.GOV/SNOW/

CALIFORNIA DEPT. OF WATER RESOURCES...
HTTP://CDEC.WATER.CA.GOV/

NWS CLIMATE PREDICTION CENTER LONG RANGE OUTLOOK MAPS...
HTTP://WWW.CPC.NCEP.NOAA.GOV/PRODUCTS/FORECASTS/

U.S. DROUGHT PORTAL...INCLUDING U.S. DROUGHT MONITOR...
HTTP://DROUGHT.GOV/


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