Flood Potential Outlook
Issued by NWS Springfield, MO

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Probabilistic Hydrologic Outlook
National Weather Service Springfield MO
1245 PM CST Thu Feb 15 2018

...2018 Spring Flood and Water Resources Outlook Number 1...

This Spring Flood Outlook is for the NWS Springfield Hydrologic
Service Area (HSA) and includes river forecast points located on the
following rivers... James, Jacks Fork, North Fork White, Spring,
Elk, Shoal Creek, Marmaton, Little Osage, Osage, Sac, Roubidoux,
Big Piney, and Gasconade.

...There will be a near normal to below normal chance for river
flooding at NWS Springfield River Forecast Points this Spring...

River flooding across the Missouri Ozarks and southeast Kansas in
the Spring is greatly influenced by thunderstorm activity.
Individual storm systems are capable of producing significant
flooding over this region, but can be highly unpredictable. This
assessment will focus mainly on current soil and streamflow
conditions, reservoir conditions, and long-range precipitation
outlooks.

Discussions for river forecast points within larger river systems in
and near the Springfield HSA are included below...

White River Basin, including the James, Jacks Fork and North Fork
White Rivers...

Below normal precipitation has occurred over the past 90 days. Soil
moisture content and streamflow conditions are much below normal.
Most of this area is currently classified as being in severe or
extreme drought by the U.S. Drought Monitor.

Reservoirs along the upper White River currently have 100% of flood
pools available for storage of runoff from heavy rainfall events.
This includes Beaver, Table Rock, Norfork, and Bull Shoals lakes.

The 8-14 Day Outlook issued by the NWS Climate Prediction Center
(CPC) shows above normal chances for above normal precipitation over
this region.

The 30-Day Outlook indicates equal chances of above, below or normal
precipitation, and the 90-Day Outlook indicates above normal chances
for above normal precipitation.

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and rainfall outlooks,
an average flood potential is expected over the rivers within the
upper White Basin.

Spring River Basin, including Shoal Creek, Elk and Spring Rivers...

Below normal precipitation has occurred over the past 90 days. Soil
moisture content and streamflow conditions are much below normal.
Most of this area is currently classified as abnormally dry or in
moderate drought by the U.S. Drought Monitor.

The 8-14 Day Outlook issued by CPC shows above normal chances for
above normal precipitation over the region.

The 30-DAY Outlook and 90-Day Outlook indicate equal chances of
above, below or normal precipitation.

The table below contains output for southwestern Missouri and
southeast Kansas forecast points where the Ensemble Streamflow
Prediction Model indicated a greater than 10% chance of minor
flooding.  These are not extreme conditions and do not reflect an
above-normal potential for flooding.

Fcst. Point% Probability   % Probability      % Probability
StationMinor Flooding  Moderate Flooding   Major Flooding

Spring River
Carthage, MO        29                  9             Not Expected
Waco, MO            30            Not Expected        Not Expected
Baxter Springs, KS  29                 12                  4

Elk River           26                  7             Not Expected
Tiff City

Based on existing soil moisture, streamflows, and rainfall outlooks,
the potential for river flooding in the Spring River Basin is near
normal this Spring.

Missouri River Tributaries, including the Marmaton, Little Osage, Osage,
Sac, Roubidoux, Big Piney, and Gasconade Rivers...

Below normal precipitation has occurred over the past 90 days. Soil
moisture content and streamflow conditions are below to much below normal.
The U.S. Drought Monitor has portions of the Gasconade Basin in severe
drought, with the rest of the region in abnormally dry to moderate
drought conditions.

Reservoirs in the Osage River Basin currently have at or near 100%
of the flood pool available for storage of runoff from heavy
rainfall events. This includes Stockton, Pomme de Terre, Truman and
Lake of the Ozarks.

The 8-14 Day Outlook issued by CPC shows above normal chances for
above normal precipitation over the region.

The 30-Day Outlook shows equal chances for above, below and normal
precipitation, and 90-Day Outlook indicates above normal chances
for above normal rainfall over the Gasconade, Big Piney and Roubidoux
basins and equal chances of above, below or normal precipitation over
the rest of the region.

River flood risk this Spring across these Missouri River tributaries
will be below normal.

Probabilities of exceedance for minor, moderate and major flooding
at select river forecast points are included below.

In Table 1 below...the current (CS) and historical (HS) or normal
probabilities of exceeding minor...moderate...and major flood stages
are listed for the valid time period.

...Table 1--Probabilities for minor...moderate and major flooding...
                    Valid Period:  02/17/2018  - 05/18/2018

                                       :    Current and Historical
                                       :     Chances of Exceeding
                                       :       Flood Categories
                                       :      as a Percentage (%)
                      Categorical      :
                   Flood Stages (ft)   :   Minor    Moderate   Major
Location           Minor   Mod   Major :  CS   HS   CS   HS   CS   HS
--------           -----  -----  ----- : ---  ---  ---  ---  ---  ---
:Little Osage River
Fulton              22.0   25.0   30.0 :  57   71   51   58    5    8
Horton              41.0   45.0   50.0 :  65   87   29   47   <5   <5
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott          38.0   42.0   43.0 :  21   34    6   12    5    7
Nevada              20.0   26.0   31.0 :  75   76   34   36    8   11
:Osage River
Schell City         30.0   35.0   45.0 :  36   65    5    9   <5   <5
:Sac River
Caplinger Mills     16.0   19.0   28.0 :  47   68   36   53    7   11
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen          21.0   26.0   30.0 :  <5   15   <5    5   <5   <5
:Roubidoux Creek
Waynesville          7.0   14.0   20.0 :  25   58   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Big Piney
Fort Leonard Wood    8.0   15.0   23.0 :  33   64    8   13   <5   <5
:Gasconade River
Jerome              15.0   25.0   30.0 :  14   43   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Spring River
Carthage            10.0   14.0   20.0 :  17   24    7    7   <5   <5
Waco                19.0   30.0   33.0 :  27   32   <5   <5   <5   <5
Baxter Springs      14.0   22.0   30.0 :  22   24    7   10   <5   <5
:Shoal Creek
Joplin              11.5   16.0   18.0 :   8    9   <5   <5   <5   <5
:Elk River
Tiff City           15.0   20.0   25.0 :  13   26   <5   <5   <5   <5

Legend
CS = Conditional Simulation (Current Outlook)
HS = Historical Simulation
FT = Feet

In Table 2 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of exceeding the listed stage levels (FT) for the valid
time period.

...Table 2--Exceedance Probabilities...

                               Chance of Exceeding Stages
                                  at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/17/2018  - 05/18/2018
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Osage River
Fulton                7.6    9.9   15.5   25.1   28.4   29.2   30.2
Horton               34.9   38.3   40.8   43.2   45.5   46.9   48.4
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott           11.9   17.1   26.6   31.4   37.0   40.7   43.0
Nevada                9.3   12.3   20.1   23.3   28.7   30.4   35.7
:Osage River
Schell City           4.1    5.5   11.1   20.4   31.6   32.4   34.4
:Sac River
Caplinger Mills       7.8    8.1   10.4   14.6   22.5   27.5   28.8
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen            1.5    1.8    3.3    5.0    9.8   16.5   18.1
:Roubidoux Creek
Waynesville           3.1    3.2    3.6    4.7    7.0    9.0   10.8
:Big Piney
Fort Leonard Wood     2.3    2.6    3.8    5.2   10.3   14.3   17.9
:Gasconade River
Jerome                2.2    2.9    4.1    7.2   11.7   17.7   21.7
:Spring River
Carthage              2.8    3.3    4.1    5.5    8.3   11.9   15.5
Waco                  4.1    4.8    8.8   11.6   19.8   25.1   26.3
Baxter Springs        4.5    5.0    6.2    8.2   12.4   20.8   23.1
:Shoal Creek
Joplin                2.5    3.4    4.2    5.6    7.5    9.5   15.3
:Elk River
Tiff City             4.0    5.1    7.1    9.0   12.1   15.7   18.5

In Table 3 below...the 95 through 5 percent columns indicate the
probability of falling below the listed stage levels (FT) for the
valid time period.

...Table 3--Nonexceedance Probabilities...

                            Chance of Falling Below Stages
                                 at Specific Locations
                          Valid Period: 02/17/2018  - 05/18/2018
Location              95%    90%    75%    50%    25%    10%     5%
--------            ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------ ------
:Little Osage River
Fulton                3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.1    3.0    2.5
Horton               26.0   26.0   26.0   25.9   25.6   25.3   25.2
:Marmaton River
Fort Scott            7.0    7.0    6.9    6.8    6.7    6.5    6.5
Nevada                3.0    3.0    2.7    2.5    2.4    2.2    2.2
:Osage River
Schell City           4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1    4.1
:Sac River
Caplinger Mills       5.2    5.2    5.2    5.2    5.1    5.1    5.1
:Gasconade River
Hazelgreen            1.1    1.1    1.0    1.0    1.0    1.0    0.9
:Roubidoux Creek
Waynesville           2.4    2.4    2.4    2.3    2.3    2.3    2.3
:Big Piney
Fort Leonard Wood     1.6    1.6    1.6    1.5    1.4    1.4    1.4
:Gasconade River
Jerome                1.5    1.5    1.4    1.4    1.4    1.3    1.3

These long-range probabilistic outlooks contain forecast values that
are calculated using multiple season scenarios from 30 or more years
of climatological data...including current conditions of the
river...soil moisture...snow cover...and 30 to 90 day long-range
outlooks of temperature and precipitation. By providing a range of
probabilities...the level of risk associated with long-range
planning decisions can be determined. These probabilistic forecasts
are part of the National Weather Service`s Advanced Hydrologic
Prediction Service (AHPS).

Visit our web site weather.gov/sgf ...under the rivers and lakes tab
and experimental long range risk tab for more weather information.

The next outlook will be issued on March 1, 2018.

$$
Terry



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