Extended Streamflow Guidance
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000
FGUS65 KSTR 051831
ESGCO

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UT


                      SPRING FLOOD POTENTIAL
             FOR THE COLORADO RIVER BASIN WITHIN COLORADO

                         MARCH 4, 2015

The 2015 spring runoff flood potential due to snowmelt is near to below
normal at this time for the Yampa/White, Upper Colorado mainstem, Gunnison,
Dolores and San Juan basins.  It should be emphasized that snow typically
accumulates into April, therefore conditions may change before the runoff
begins.

Currently, the following sites are forecast to peak at or above the flood flow
at the given exceedance level:

Colorado River near Cameo            10%

A few sites are forecast to peak above bankfull at the 25% or 10% exceedance
levels but, in general, below average peaks are expected across much of western
Colorado.  The Upper Colorado headwaters, especially the Blue River Basin,
will likely see near to above average peaks.  Keep in mind specific forecast
procedures and flood flow levels do not exist for all streams.

February precipitation was generally below average across western Colorado
with the overall basin preciptation amounts ranging between 70% and 95% of
average.  However, pockets of near to above average precipitation occurred
in the eastern San Juan and southeast Gunnison River basins due to the storm
system at the end of the month and the Upper Colorado River headwaters received
near to above average precipitation scattered throughout the month.  Seasonal
precipitation is below average at 80% in all basins with the exception of the
Upper Colorado which is at 90% of average.

Overall March 1 snow water equvialent is also below median in all basins
(between 70% and 80%) with the execption of the Upper Colorado which was at
95% of median.  However, there is much variation between individual SNOTEL sites
within each basin due to the generally warm winter which has seen precipitation
falling as rain instead of snow at times as well as some earlier than normal
melt that occurred during February at relatively high elevations.

The current volume forecasts for the April through July runoff period are
generally below average for much of the Yampa/White, Gunnison and Dolores
basins and much below average in the San Juan basin.  The Upper Colorado
mainstem basin is generally forecast to have near average runoff volumes.

Although spring temperatures affect the pattern of snowmelt runoff and
consequently the magnitude of peak flows, peak flows also roughly correspond
to volumetric flows. It is also important to keep in mind that an extended
period of much above normal temperatures or heavy rainfall during the melt
period can cause or exacerbate flooding problems in any year.

A list of specific spring peak flow forecasts are available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/rmap/peak/peaklist.php

A map of the current spring peak flow forecasts is available at:
http://www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/lmap/lmap.php?interface=peak

MEAN DAILY PEAK FLOW FORECASTS IN CFS

LOCATION                   FLOOD     FCST   FORECAST FLOWS
                            FLOW     DATE      90%    75%    50%    25%    10%
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
YAMPA - STEAMBOAT SPRINGS   5930 2015-03-01   2000   2200   2700   3200   4300
ELK - MILNER, NR            5750 2015-03-01   2200   2700   3100   3800   5300
YAMPA - MAYBELL, NR        21200 2015-03-01   5500   6500   7500   8500  11000
LITTLE SNAKE - LILY, NR     -999 2015-03-01   1700   2200   2700   3500   4500
YAMPA - DEERLODGE PARK      -999 2015-03-01   7500   8000  10000  11000  15000
WHITE - MEEKER, NR          8324 2015-03-01   1800   2100   2500   2800   3500
SNAKE - MONTEZUMA, NR       2180 2015-03-01    300    350    400    500    700
TENMILE CK - FRISCO, N TE   1530 2015-03-01    600    650    800    950   1200
STRAIGHT CK - LASKEY GULC    410 2015-03-01     70     90    110    130    190
EAGLE - GYPSUM, BLO         6550 2015-03-01   2200   2400   3200   4000   5900
COLORADO - DOTSERO, NR     17000 2015-03-01   5200   5700   7800  10000  16000
CRYSTAL - REDSTONE, NR, A   3140 2015-03-01   1100   1250   1500   1850   2300
ROARING FORK - GLENWOOD S  17100 2015-03-01   3400   4000   4900   6000   7800
COLORADO - CAMEO, NR       26000 2015-03-01  10000  11000  14500  18000  27000
EAST - ALMONT               3170 2015-03-01   1050   1200   1400   1750   2100
NF GUNNISON - SOMERSET, N  13870 2015-03-01   1620   1700   2300   2900   3700
SURFACE CK - CEDAREDGE      1410 2015-03-01     70    120    150    200    260
GUNNISON - GRAND JUNCTION  19520 2015-03-01   8000   8000   8000   8500   9000
DOLORES - RICO, BLO         1780 2015-03-01    650    770    870    970   1250
DOLORES - DOLORES           7130 2015-03-01   1900   2200   2500   2900   3700
SAN MIGUEL - PLACERVILLE,   3190 2015-03-01    880   1020   1100   1200   1600
COLORADO - CO-UT STATE LI  46200 2015-03-01  16500  17500  21500  26000  37000
SAN JUAN - PAGOSA SPRINGS   5000 2015-03-01    960   1200   1400   1700   1800
ANIMAS - DURANGO           10200 2015-03-01   2600   2900   3200   3900   4300
ANIMAS - FARMINGTON         8810 2015-03-01   2200   2600   3000   3700   4300
MANCOS - MANCOS, NR         2800 2015-03-01     45    110    180    240    440


CBRFC/Alcorn






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