Extended Streamflow Guidance
Issued by NWS Missouri Basin, Pleasant Hill

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                       SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK
                      NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
                 MISSOURI BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
                         PLEASANT HILL, MO
                            FEB 15, 2017


NARRATIVE PART 1 OF 1

ATTN WFO`S SERVED BY MBRFC.

THIS OUTLOOK IS NOT FOR PUBLIC RELEASE UNTIL WEDNESDAY,
FEBRUARY 15, 2017.

THIS SPRING OUTLOOK IS FOR THE MISSOURI RIVER DRAINAGE WHICH
INCLUDES RIVERS IN MONTANA, WYOMING, COLORADO, NORTH AND SOUTH
DAKOTA, NEBRASKA, KANSAS, IOWA, MINNESOTA AND MISSOURI.


   SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK


A NORMAL FLOOD RISK SUGGESTS LOCATIONS THAT TYPICALLY EXPERIENCE
SPRING TIME FLOODING MAY FLOOD AGAIN THIS YEAR.  LOCATIONS THAT DO
NOT NORMALLY EXPERIENCE FLOODING WOULD NOT BE PROJECTED TO FLOOD,
BUT WOULD STILL BE CATEGORIZED AS HAVING A NORMAL FLOOD
RISK.

WITH THAT SAID, FLOOD RISK THIS SPRING VARIES ACROSS THE MISSOURI
RIVER BASIN.  MUCH OF THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE
BASIN HAVE A NORMAL FLOOD RISK THIS SPRING.  THIS INCLUDES MUCH
OF MONTANA, WYOMING, COLORADO, NEBRASKA, AND KANSAS.

MUCH OF NORTH DAKOTA, SOUTH DAKOTA, AND WESTERN IOWA HAVE A HIGHER
THAN NORMAL RISK FOR FLOODING THIS SPRING.  AGAIN, THAT IS NOT TO
SAY THAT A GIVEN LOCATION IS ACTUALLY PROJECTED TO FLOOD, BUT
RATHER THAT A GIVEN LOCATION HAS A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD OF FLOODING
THAN NORMALLY EXPECTED.  LOCATIONS CAN HAVE A HIGHER LIKELIHOOD
THAN NORMAL TO REACH FLOOD STAGE, YET STILL HAVE A LOW PROBABILITY
OF ACTUALLY REACHING FLOOD STAGE.

MUCH OF THE STATE OF MISSOURI HAS A LOWER THAN NORMAL RISK FOR
FLOODING.  HOWEVER, THERE ARE STILL LOCATIONS THAT ARE EXPECTED
TO FLOOD THIS SPRING, ALBEIT THE CHANCES ARE LOWER THAN NORMAL.

SNOWPACK IN THE MOUNTAINOUS WEST CAN BE GENERALLY CATEGORIZED AS
NORMAL TO A BIT ABOVE NORMAL.  WIDESPREAD SIGNIFICANT FLOODING
IN THE MOUNTAINOUS WEST IS NOT LIKELY DUE TO SNOWMELT ALONE.
HOWEVER, LOW ELEVATION MELT AGGRAVATED BY RIVER ICE HAS ALREADY
RESULTED IN TRIBUTARY FLOODING IN THE MILK RIVER BASIN IN
MONTANA AND ALONG THE BIGHORN RIVER IN WYOMING.  MINOR FLOODING
IS POSSIBLE LATER THIS SEASON IN THE WIND RIVER BASIN IN WYOMING,
AND ALONG CLARKS FORK YELLOWSTONE RIVER AND CLEAR CREEK IN MONTANA.

APPRECIABLE PLAINS SNOW IS LIMITED TO PORTIONS OF EASTERN MONTANA,
NORTH DAKOTA AND SOUTH DAKOTA. WETTER THAN NORMAL SOILS EXIST
IN EASTERN MONTANA, NORTH DAKOTA, EASTERN SOUTH DAKOTA, AND
WESTERN IOWA.  FROZEN GROUND IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE A KEY FACTOR
IN ENHANCING PLAINS RUNOFF.  IT MUST BE REMEMBERED THAT SPRINGTIME
FLOODING IN THE LOWER THIRD OF THE BASIN IS PRIMARILY DRIVEN BY
CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY. CURRENT AND EXPECTED CONDITIONS MAKE FLOODING
ACROSS MANY AREAS OF THE PLAINS LIKELY THIS SPRING.

IN NORTH DAKOTA:  MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE CANNONBALL
AND KNIFE RIVERS, AND ALONG APPLE AND BEAVER CREEKS.  MODERATE
FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE JAMES RIVER BASIN AND ALONG THE LITTLE
MUDDY.

IN SOUTH DAKOTA:  MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE WHITE, BIG
SIOUX, AND VERMILLION RIVERS.  MODERATE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN
THE JAMES RIVER BASIN.

IN NEBRASKA:  MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG THE LOWER REACH OF
THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER, AND ALONG SOME OF THE SMALLER STREAMS IN
THE SOUTHEASTERN PORTION OF THE STATE.  THE PLATTE RIVER IN
WESTERN NEBRASKA WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED GIVEN THE ABOVE AVERAGE
SNOWPACK IN THE NORTH PLATTE HEADWATERS AND CURRENT RESERVOIR
CONDITIONS.  ALTHOUGH LONG RANGE RIVER MODELS DO NOT INDICATE THAT
FLOODING ALONG THE PLATTE IS LIKELY, CONDITIONS CAN CHANGE QUICKLY.

IN IOWA:  FLOODING HAS ALREADY OCCURRED THIS SEASON IN THE LITTLE
SIOUX RIVER BASIN DUE TO SNOWMELT.  MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
ALONG THE FLOYD AND ROCK RIVERS.  MODERATE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE LITTLE AND BIG SIOUX RIVER BASINS.

IN KANSAS:  MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF
THE BIG BLUE BASIN.  MODERATE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE ALONG STRANGER
CREEK AND IN THE MARAIS DES CYGNES OSAGE RIVER BASIN.

IN MISSOURI:  MINOR FLOODING IS POSSIBLE WITHIN THE PLATTE RIVER
BASIN AND ALONG MANY OF THE SMALLER TRIBUTARIES TO THE MISSOURI
RIVER. MODERATE FLOODING IS POSSIBLE IN THE GRAND AND OSAGE BASINS,
AND ALONG THE TARKIO AND 102 RIVERS.

MAINSTEM MISSOURI RIVER BELOW GAVINS POINT DAM:  MINOR FLOODING IS
POSSIBLE ALONG THE MISSOURI RIVER DOWNSTREAM OF NEBRASKA CITY TO
ITS CONFLUENCE WITH THE MISSISSIPPI RIVER GIVEN NORMAL SPRINGTIME
CONVECTION.

THIS OUTLOOK CONTAINS A GENERALIZED SUMMARY OF SPRING FLOOD
POTENTIAL.  ABOVE NORMAL FUTURE SNOW ACCUMULATIONS COMBINED WITH
HEAVY RAINS AND RAPID MELT WILL INCREASE THE CURRENT FLOOD POTENTIAL
WHILE BELOW NORMAL FUTURE PRECIPITATION AND GRADUAL OR INTERMITTENT
FREEZING AND THAWING WILL DECREASE THE MAGNITUDE OF THE CURRENT
ASSESSMENT.  IN ADDITION, WHEN MANY OF THE FROZEN RIVERS AND STREAMS
THAW, ICE JAMS CAN OCCUR CAUSING HIGHER RIVER LEVELS AND POSSIBLE
FLOODING.  ICE JAMS HAVE ALREADY BEEN REPORTED THIS SEASON.  ALL
REPORTS HAVE INDICATED THAT THE IMPACTS HAVE BEEN RELATIVELY MINOR
AND LOCALIZED IN EXTENT.  HIGH WATER DUE TO RIVER ICE HAS BEEN
REPORTED ALONG PONCA CREEK, THE LITTLE BLUE RIVER, THE LOWER REACH
OF THE NORTH PLATTE RIVER, AND THE PLATTE RIVER IN NEBRASKA, THE
MADISON, TONGUE, GALLATIN, AND BIGHORN RIVERS IN MONTANA, AND IN
THE WIND AND BIGHORN BASINS IN WYOMING. ADDITIONAL ICE JAMS ARE
POSSIBLE THROUGHOUT THE LATE WINTER AND EARLY SPRING.

THESE PROJECTIONS OF RIVER STAGES AND RESERVOIR LEVELS ARE BASED ON
CURRENT OBSERVED STATES OF STREAMFLOW, SOIL MOISTURE, AND SNOW PACK,
COUPLED WITH FUTURE PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE PATTERNS AND
ANTICIPATED OPERATIONAL HYDROLOGIC CHANGES SUCH AS RESERVOIR
RELEASES AND CANAL DIVERSIONS.  "OUTLOOKS" ARE PROVIDED FOR
LONG-RANGE (WEEKS TO MONTHS) PROJECTIONS BASED ON CLIMATOLOGICAL
PATTERNS OF PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE.  "FORECASTS" ARE PROVIDED
FOR SHORT-TERM (DAYS) PROJECTIONS BASED ON FORECAST PATTERNS OF
PRECIPITATION AND TEMPERATURE.  THE UNCERTAINTY OF THESE PRODUCTS
VARIES FROM SEASON TO SEASON AND SITE TO SITE.  IN RECENT YEARS,
OUTLOOK CRESTS HAVE BEEN ABOVE THE OBSERVED CREST ABOUT AS OFTEN AS
THEY HAVE BEEN BELOW THE OBSERVED CREST.  THE UNCERTAINTY OF
FORECASTS TEND TO BE LESS THAN THE UNCERTAINTY OF OUTLOOKS DUE TO
THEIR SHORTER LEAD TIME.

USERS OF THESE PRODUCTS ARE ENCOURAGED TO CONTACT THEIR NEAREST
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE FOR CONTINUED UPDATES OF
METEOROLOGICAL CONDITIONS WHICH CAN HAVE SIGNIFICANT IMPACTS ON
FLOOD PLANNING AND FLOOD FIGHTING ACTIVITIES.

OUTLOOK NUMBERS FOR LOCATIONS NOT REPRESENTED IN AHPS PRODUCTS ARE
NOT BEING ISSUED WITH THIS TEXT PRODUCT. FOR ADDITIONAL QUANTITATIVE
INFORMATION PLEASE REFER TO AHPS PRODUCTS FOR PROBABILISTIC
FORECASTS OF POTENTIAL FLOODING. REFER TO FLOOD FORECASTS, IF ANY
ARE CURRENTLY ISSUED, FOR INFORMATION ABOUT ONGOING OR ANTICIPATED
FLOODING.

THE NEXT SPRING OUTLOOK IS SCHEDULED FOR RELEASE ON MARCH 1ST.

ADDITIONAL RIVER INFORMATION CAN BE FOUND IN THE DAILY HYDROLOGIC
ACTIVITIES DISCUSSION, FLOOD FORECASTS FOR RIVERS NEAR OR ABOVE
FLOOD STAGE, DAILY RIVER FORECASTS, AHPS PRODUCTS AND THE MONTHLY
WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK, ALL ISSUED BY THIS OFFICE. ADDITIONAL SPRING
OUTLOOK GRAPHICS CAN BE ACCESSED AT THE FOLLOWING URL:
HTTP://WEATHER.GOV/MBRFC


   CURRENT SNOW CONDITIONS

THE CONDITIONS LISTED BELOW ARE BASED ON OBSERVATIONS AND MODEL DATA
AS OF WEDNESDAY MORNING, FEBRUARY 15TH.

MONTANA PLAINS

ACCORDING TO RECENT REPORTS, SNOW DEPTHS ACROSS THE FAR EASTERN
PLAINS OF MONTANA RANGE FROM 5-10 INCHES WITH MAXIMUM WATER
EQUIVALENTS APPROACHING 2 INCHES.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE CENTRAL
PLAINS OF MONTANA, SNOW DEPTHS ARE GENERALLY LESS THAN 5 INCHES
WITH WATER EQUIVALENTS LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.

WYOMING AND COLORADO PLAINS

THERE IS VERY LITTLE SNOW BEING REPORTED IN THE PLAINS OF WYOMING
AND COLORADO.  A FEW LOCATIONS ARE REPORTING 1-2 INCH SNOW DEPTHS.
WATER EQUIVALENTS IN THESE ISOLATED AREAS ARE LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.


MOUNTAINOUS WEST

SNOWPACK CONDITIONS IN THE MOUNTAINOUS AREAS OF THE BASIN VARY
FROM ONE WATERSHED TO ANOTHER. IN MONTANA, THE JEFFERSON,
MUSSELSHELL, MISSOURI HEADWATERS, SUN, TETON, MARAIS, ST. MARY,
AND MILK RIVER BASINS ARE REPORTING A NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW
NORMAL SNOW PACK (80-100%).  IN WYOMING, THE TONGUE, BIGHORN, POWDER,
LOWER YELLOWSTONE RIVER BASINS ARE REPORTING A NEAR TO SLIGHTLY
ABOVE NORMAL SNOWPACK (90-110%) WITH THE WIND RIVER (160%) AND NORTH
PLATTE (110-130%) RIVER BASINS REPORTING AN ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWPACK.
IN COLORADO, THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE SOUTH PLATTE RIVER BASIN
ARE REPORTING AN ABOVE AVERAGE SNOWPACK (130-150%).

NORTH DAKOTA

NORTH DAKOTA HAS MORE SNOW THAN ANY OTHER LOCATION IN THE LOWLANDS
OF THE MISSOURI RIVER BASIN.  PORTIONS OF CENTRAL NORTH DAKOTA ARE
REPORTING 15-20 INCHES OF SNOWPACK WITH WATER EQUVALENTS IN THE 4-5
INCH RANGE.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS THE STATE, SNOW DEPTHS ARE GENERALLY LESS
THAN 10 INCHES WITH WATER EQUIVALENTS AROUND 1-3 INCHES.

SOUTH DAKOTA

THE NORTHERN PORTION OF SOUTH DAKOTA AND THE BLACK HILLS ARE
REPORTING 8-14 INCHES OF SNOW DEPTH WITH WATER EQUIVALENTS IN THE
2-4 INCH RANGE.  ELSEWHERE ACROSS SOUTH DAKOTA, SNOW DEPTHS ARE
LESS THAN 5 INCHES WITH WATER EQUIVALENTS LESS THAN HALF AN INCH.

IOWA

WARM WEATHER OVER THE PAST WEEK HAS MELTED MOST OF THE SNOW
ACROSS NORTHWESTERN IOWA AND FAR SOUTHWESTERN MINNESOTA.  ISOLATED
AREAS ARE REPORTING 1-2 INCHES OF SNOW DEPTH WITH WATER EQUIVALENTS
LESS THAN A QUARTER OF AN INCH.

NEBRASKA

WARM WEATHER HAS MELTED MOST OF THE SNOW ACROSS NEBRASKA OVER
THE PAST WEEK.  ISOLATED REPORTS OF 1-2 INCHES ARE BEING REPORTED
ACROSS EXTREME NORTHWESTERN NEBRASKA WITH WATER EQUIVALENTS LESS
THAN HALF AN INCH.  THE WARM WEATHER OVER THE NEXT WEEK SHOULD MELT
THIS REMAINING SNOW.


MISSOURI AND KANSAS

THERE IS NO SNOW BEING REPORTED IN THESE TWO STATES.



   CURRENT SOIL MOISTURE CONDITIONS

ACROSS MONTANA AND NORTH DAKOTA, AUTUMN RAINS AND HIGH AMOUNTS OF
WINTER PRECIPITATION HAVE PROVIDED SUFFICIENT MOISTURE TO THE
REGION.  GENERALLY SPEAKING, THE SHALLOW SURFACE SOILS IN THIS AREA
ARE WETTER THAN NORMAL.  ELSEWHERE, THE US DROUGHT MONITOR INDICATES
MODERATE DROUGHT ACROSS EASTERN COLORADO, WESTERN KANSAS, NORTHEASTERN
WYOMING, AND WESTERN SOUTH DAKOTA.  ABNORMALLY DRY CONDITIONS ARE
INDICATED ACROSS MUCH OF MISSOURI, EASTERN KANSAS, AND SOUTHWESTERN
NEBRASKA.  THE REMAINDER OF THE BASIN HAS NEAR NORMAL SOIL CONDITIONS.
ISOLATED FROST DEPTH REPORTS SUGGEST THAT SOILS IN THE NORTHERN HALF
OF THE BASIN HAVE FROST PENETRATION RANGING FROM 1-2 FEET. LOCATIONS
IN THE BASIN`S SOUTHERN STATES ARE REPORTING FROST DEPTHS OF LESS
THAN A HALF OF A FOOT.



   CURRENT RIVER CONDITIONS

THE MAJORITY OF THE RIVERS IN THE NORTHERN HALF OF THE BASIN ARE STILL
MOSTLY ICED OVER. GENERALLY, RIVER LEVELS IN THIS PORTION OF THE BASIN
ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NORMAL TO SLIGHTLY ABOVE NORMAL, OR ESTIMATED TO
BE SO IF THE RIVERS ARE FROZEN.  IN THE SOUTHERN PART OF THE BASIN, RIVERS
ACROSS MISSOURI AND KANSAS CURRENTLY HAVE FLOW CONDITIONS THAT ARE
NEAR TO SLIGHTLY BELOW HISTORICAL MEDIANS.  RIVER LEVELS ACROSS COLORADO,
NEBRASKA, AND IOWA ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING NEAR TO ABOVE AVERAGE.

A SUMMARY OF RIVER FLOW CONDITIONS AT SELECTED RIVER STATIONS FOR
FEBRUARY 15TH FOLLOWS:

                                    LONG TERM     CURRENT
                                    MEAN(CFS)      (CFS)
JAMES RIVER       - HURON, SD           58           264 (EST)
BIG SIOUX RIVER   - AKRON, IA          175          5950 (EST)
PLATTE RIVER      - LOUISVILLE, NE    6450         12500 (EST)
KANSAS RIVER      - DESOTO, KS        2610          2880
GASCONADE RIVER   - JEROME, MO        1729           927
MISSOURI RIVER    - OMAHA, NE        19600         31700
MISSOURI RIVER    - RULO, NE         24900         45600
MISSOURI RIVER    - ST. JOSEPH, MO   27300         48800
MISSOURI RIVER    - WAVERLY, MO      33100         41800
MISSOURI RIVER    - HERMANN, MO      52500         47000




END MBRFC







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