Extended Streamflow Prediction
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FGUS65 KSTR 051908
ESPAZ

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH

APRIL 5, 2016

ARIZONA WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK - AS OF APRIL 1 2016:


Precipitation:

Seasonal October-March precipitation was 80 percent of average in
the Salt-Verde River Basin, 85 percent of average for the Gila Basin and
90 percent for the Little Colorado Basin. March precipitation was
5 percent of average in the Salt-Verde River Basin, 0 percent in the
Gila River Basin, and 10 percent of average in the Little Colorado Basin.

Streamflow:

March Streamflow was around 20 percent of median in the Salt-Verde,
35 percent in the Gila, and generally 40 percent in the Little Colorado.

April 1st Snow:

Basin snowpack conditions were near 0 percent of median in the
Salt-Verde River Basin, the upper Gila, and in the Little Colorado
River Basin.

Soil Moisture:

Modeled soil moisture states were much below average at the beginning
of the water year. However, Conditions improved December through January.
Conditions decreased in March. March through May runoff volumes are
primarily influenced by the frequency and magnitude of winter rain events.

Climate Conditions:

El Nino climate conditions suggest chances for above average precipitation.

Forecast Summary:

The April-May forecast volumes were between 20-29 percent of median in the
Little Colorado Basin, and 26 to 47 percent of median in the Salt-Verde
Basins. In the Gila Basin, volumes were between 38 to 79 percent.


SPECIFIC SITE FORECASTS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

Afos message output for EGDD: /nvm1/users/tjc/wsup/wy16/lc/lcapr.drv
Developed:                    Apr 1 2016

LOWER Colorado
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Little Colorado River
  Lyman Lk, abv, St. John  Apr-Jun   1.00    29    2.2    1.0   0.85   0.77    3.5
Zuni River
  Black Rock Res, abv      Apr-May   0.02    20   0.10   0.04   0.00   0.00   0.10
Chevelon Ck
  Winslow, nr, Wildcat Cy  Apr-May   0.40    24    2.0    0.5   0.10   0.00   1.70
Gila River
  Gila, nr                 Apr-May   11.0    67   15.5   12.1   10.5   10.1   16.5
  Virden, nr, Blue Ck, bl  Apr-May   12.8    61   17.5   13.6   12.6   12.5     21
San Francisco River
  Glenwood, nr             Apr-May    5.8    79    7.5    6.4    5.6    5.5    7.3
  Clifton                  Apr-May    9.5    55   16.0   10.5    8.8    8.3   17.3
Gila River
  Solomon, nr, Head Of Sa  Apr-May     23    59     33     27     22     21     39
  San Carlos Res, Coolidg  Apr-May    7.0    38   15.5    8.8    4.7    3.0   18.4
Salt River
  Roosevelt, nr            Apr-May     33    26     57     39     29     24    127
Tonto Ck
  Roosevelt, nr, Gun Ck,   Apr-May    2.1    36    3.3    2.6   1.46   1.07    5.9
Verde River
  Tangle Ck, blo, Horsesh  Apr-May   17.0    47     25     21   15.4   14.6     36

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.


****************************************************************************

PRECIPITATION SUMMARY:

                       MARCH`16        SEASONAL
BASIN                 % Average       % Average

  Upper Gila              0               85
  Salt-Verde              5               80
  Little Colorado        10               90

***************************************************************************

SNOWPACK SUMMARY:

                      APRIL 1 2016
BASIN                  % Average

  Upper Gila               0
  San Francisco            0
  Salt-Verde               0
  Little Colorado          0


***************************************************************************

OBSERVED STREAM FLOW SUMMARY:

                       MARCH`16
BASIN                  % Median

  Gila                    35
  Salt-Verde              20
  Little Colorado         40

**************************************************************************

For additional forecast information refer to the Water Supply section of
the CBRFC web page at: www.cbrfc.noaa.gov/wsup/pub2/map/html/cpub.php

CBRFC

NNNN

$$



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