Extended Streamflow Prediction
Issued by NWS

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NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
SALT LAKE CITY, UTAH

JANUARY 4, 2018

ARIZONA WATER SUPPLY OUTLOOK - As Of January 1 2018:


Precipitation:

Seasonal October-December precipitation was 0 percent of average in
the Salt-Verde River Basin, 10 percent of average for the Gila Basin and
0 percent for the Little Colorado Basin. December precipitation was
5 percent of average in the Salt-Verde River Basin, 15 percent in the
Gila River Basin, and 0 percent of average in the Little Colorado Basin.

Streamflow:

December Streamflow was around 50 percent of median in the Salt-Verde,
50 percent in the Gila, and 40 percent in the Little Colorado.

January 1st Snow:

January 1st snowpack conditions was 5 percent of average in the
Salt-Verde River Basin, 10 percent of average in the upper Gila,
and 0 percent of average in the Little Colorado River Basin.

Soil Moisture:

Modeled soil moisture states were much below average at the
beginning of the water year. January through May runoff volumes
are primarily influenced by the frequency and magnitude of winter
rain events.

Climate Conditions:

La Nina climate conditions suggest chances for below average precipitation
in Arizona.

Forecast Summary:

The January-May forecast volumes between 21 and 35 percent of median in
the Little Colorado Basin, 39 to 66 percent of median in the Salt-Verde
Basins. In the Gila Basin, January-May volumes were between 38 to 60
percent.

SPECIFIC SITE FORECASTS ARE AS FOLLOWS:

Afos message output for EGDD: /home/tracy.cox/wsup/wy18/lc/lcjan.drv
Developed:                    Jan 1 2018

LOWER Colorado
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Little Colorado River
  Lyman Lk, abv, St. John  Jan-Jun    2.5    35    5.5    3.4   1.82   1.32    7.1
Zuni River
  Black Rock Res, abv      Jan-May   0.10    21   0.51   0.22   0.03   0.00   0.47
Chevelon Ck
  Winslow, nr, Wildcat Cy  Jan-May    3.0    22   16.3    7.2   1.47   0.29   13.9
Gila River
  Gila, nr                 Jan-May     21    38     70     30   18.4   12.3     56
  Virden, nr, Blue Ck, bl  Jan-May     29    38    102     42   24.0   16.3     76
San Francisco River
  Glenwood, nr             Jan-May   12.7    60     30     17    9.2    3.7     21
  Clifton                  Jan-May     26    43     86     32   15.1    6.2     61
Gila River
  Solomon, nr, Head Of Sa  Jan-May     72    53    225     95     50     28    137
  San Carlos Res, Coolidg  Jan-May     52    55    210     69   26.0   11.0     95
Salt River
  Roosevelt, nr            Jan-May    121    39    320    165     78     51    310
Tonto Ck
  Roosevelt, nr, Gun Ck,   Jan-May   16.4    39     71     41   10.0    2.6     42
Verde River
  Tangle Ck, blo, Horsesh  Jan-May    103    66    285    160     74     51    157

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.

****************************************************************************

PRECIPITATION SUMMARY:

                      DECEMBER`17      SEASONAL
BASIN                 % Average       % Average

  Upper Gila             15              10
  Salt-Verde              5               0
  Little Colorado         0               0

***************************************************************************

SNOWPACK SUMMARY:

                     JANUARY 1 2018
BASIN                  % Median

  Upper Gila              10
  San Francisco            5
  Salt-Verde               5
  Little Colorado          0

***************************************************************************

OBSERVED STREAM FLOW SUMMARY:

                      DECEMBER`17
BASIN                  % Median

  Gila                   50
  Salt-Verde             50
  Little Colorado        40

**************************************************************************


CBRFC

NNNN

$$



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