Extended Streamflow Prediction
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000
FGUS65 KSTR 052233
ESPUT

COLORADO BASIN RIVER FORECAST CENTER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE
SALT LAKE CITY UT
JAN 5,2017

            INTERNAL NWS PRODUCT FOR GUIDANCE PURPOSES ONLY

                     WATER SUPPLY INFORMATION FOR
                                 UTAH

                                 AS OF
                             JAN 1, 2017


PRECIPITATION AND SNOWPACK (% OF AVERAGE, ROUNDED):

SUBBASIN                 DEC PRECIP     OCT-DEC PREC     JAN 1 SNOWPACK
----------------------   ----------     ------------     -------------
BEAR                        160             140               135
WEBER                       160             115               150
SIX CREEKS (SLC)            135             110               135
PROVO                       170             115               160
SEVIER                      150             105               125
VIRGIN                      185             110               150
DUCHESNE                    210             115               145
PRICE/SAN RAFAEL            170             115               140



STREAMFLOW VOLUME FORECASTS:
Afos message output for EGDD: utesp.drv
Developed:                    Jan 1 2017

Great Salt Lake Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Bear River
  Utah-Wyoming State Line  Apr-Jul    128   114    166    141    111     83    112
  Woodruff Narrows Rsvr,   Apr-Jul    133   110    215    159    114     75    121
  Montpelier, nr, Stewart  Apr-Jul    290   159    465    350    220    155    182
Smiths Fork River
  Border, nr               Apr-Jul    109   122    145    122     91     74     89
Logan River
  Logan, nr, State Dam, a  Apr-Jul    129   116    170    150    107     90    111
Blacksmith Fork River
  Hyrum, nr, Upnl Dam, ab  Apr-Jul     49   114     76     60     40     28     43
Little Bear River
  Paradise                 Apr-Jul     53   113     91     69     41     31     47
Weber River
  Oakley, nr               Apr-Jul    124   105    168    137    101     77    118
  Rockport Res, Wanship,   Apr-Jul    135   102    200    157    107     74    132
  Coalville, nr            Apr-Jul    138   103    215    166    109     73    134
  Echo Res, Echo, at       Apr-Jul    175   102    290    215    140     87    171
  Gateway                  Apr-Jul    340   105    555    435    255    158    325
Chalk Ck
  Coalville                Apr-Jul     42   102     70     55   29.0   16.2     41
Weber River
  Coalville, nr            Apr-Jul    138   103    215    166    109     73    134
Lost Ck
  Lost Ck Res, Croydon, n  Apr-Jul   13.4   100     23     17   10.5    6.9   13.4
East Canyon Ck
  East Canyon Res, Morgan  Apr-Jul     30   111     48     36   19.9   14.0     27
SF Ogden River
  Huntsville, nr           Apr-Jul     62   111     93     68     47     34     56
Ogden River
  Pineview Res, Ogden, nr  Apr-Jul    126   112    200    165     96     67    113
Spanish Fork River
  Castilla, nr             Apr-Jul     70   101    124     90     53     29     69
Provo River
  Woodland, nr             Apr-Jul    110   110    155    132     97     72    100
  Hailstone, nr            Apr-Jul    122   111    171    147    105     79    110
  Deer Ck Res              Apr-Jul    140   110    215    171    116     84    127
American Fork River
  American Fork, nr, Up P  Apr-Jul     30    97     50     37   24.0   16.9     31
  American Fork, nr, Up P  Apr-Jul     30    97     50     37   24.0   16.9     31
Jordan River
  Utah Lake, Provo, nr     Apr-Jul    340   105    550    440    260    184    325
Little Cottonwood Ck
  Salt Lake City, nr       Apr-Jul     39   103     51     44     33     28     38
Big Cottonwood Ck
  Salt Lake City, nr       Apr-Jul     37   103     56     46     30     24     36
City Ck
  Salt Lake City, nr       Apr-Jul    7.7   100   12.4   10.7    6.2    4.7    7.7
Emigration Ck
  Salt Lake City, nr       Apr-Jul    4.3   108    9.2    6.3   2.80   1.68    4.0
Red Butte Ck
  Ft Douglas, at, Salt La  Apr-Jul   1.90   100    3.6    2.7   1.43   0.87   1.90
Mill Ck
  Salt Lake City, nr       Apr-Jul    6.4   100    9.7    7.8    4.7    3.5    6.4
Dell Fk River
  Little Dell Res          Apr-Jul    5.6   102    8.1    7.0    3.8    2.8    5.5
Lambs Ck
  Lambs Ck                 Apr-Jul    5.3   100    8.7    6.9    3.3    2.5    5.3
Parleys Ck
  Salt Lake City, nr       Apr-Jul   14.5   102     24     19    9.4    7.1   14.2
S Willow Ck
  Grantsville, nr          Apr-Jul    3.1   100    5.0    3.9   2.40   1.90    3.1
West Canyon Ck
  Cedar Fort, nr           Apr-Jul   1.83   104    4.8    2.5   1.53   0.97   1.76
Salt Ck
  Nephi Powerplant Div, b  Apr-Jul    9.0   108   19.0   12.5    6.1    4.0    8.3

Sevier Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
EF Sevier River
  Kingston, nr             Apr-Jul     33    94     44     37     28     21     35
Clear Ck
  Sevier, nr, Diversions,  Apr-Jul     20    95     35     26   15.9   11.0     21
Salina Ck
  Emery, nr                Apr-Jul    8.3   105   17.7   11.2    6.1    3.5    7.9
Sevier River
  Gunnison, nr             Apr-Jul     64    65    150     83     50     30     99
Beaver River
  Beaver, nr               Apr-Jul     22    85     45     29   17.2   11.0     26
Coal Ck
  Cedar City, nr           Apr-Jul   14.5    75     35     19   11.1    6.5   19.4

Eastern Utah - Green River Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Blacks Fork River
  Robertson, nr            Apr-Jul     94   106    134    112     83     60     89
Green River
  Flaming Gorge Res, Flam  Apr-Jul   1230   126   1990   1440   1020    780    980
White River
  Watson, nr               Apr-Jul    255    91    340    290    205    168    280
Big Brush Ck
  Vernal, nr, Red Fleet R  Apr-Jul     22   105     32     27   20.0   14.6     21
Ashley Ck
  Vernal, nr               Apr-Jul     52   104     77     62     48     34     50
Whiterocks River
  Whiterocks, nr           Apr-Jul     62   115     89     71     53     41     54
Uinta River
  Neola, nr                Apr-Jul     85   115    123    100     70     54     74
Yellowstone River
  Altonah, nr              Apr-Jul     70   115    100     79     62     50     61
Lake Fork River
  Moon Lake Res, Mtn Home  Apr-Jul     75   114    106     87     64     53     66
Rock Ck
  Upper Stillwater Res     Apr-Jul     84   114    122    100     72     61     74
South Fork Rock Ck
  Docs Div, blo            Apr-Jul    8.2   112   12.6   10.1    7.1    5.5    7.3
Rock Ck
  Mountain Home, nr        Apr-Jul     99   112    150    120     86     72     88
West Fork Duchesne River
  Vat Diversion, blo       Apr-Jul   19.7   106     31     24   17.2   12.2   18.6
Duchesne River
  Tabiona, nr              Apr-Jul    115   106    158    135     96     77    108
  Duchesne, nr, Knight Di  Apr-Jul    210   108    300    245    178    147    194
Currant Ck
  Currant Ck Res           Apr-Jul     21   105     33     25   17.8   13.4     20
Strawberry River
  Solider Springs,nr - St  Apr-Jul     69    97    119     88     56     35     71
  Starvation Res, Duchesn  Apr-Jul    125   112    215    168    104     71    112
Duchesne River
  Myton                    Apr-Jul    365   111    585    455    295    210    330
  Randlett, nr             Apr-Jul    440   114    730    550    345    240    385
Fish Ck
  Scofield, nr, Reservoir  Apr-Jul     34   113     48     42     28     23     30
Price River
  Scofield Res, Scofield,  Apr-Jul     46   112     67     57     37     29     41
White River
  Blo Tabbyune Ck, Soldie  Apr-Jul     20   129     28     25   16.3    7.8   15.5
Green River
  Green River, Ut          Apr-Jul   3130   106   4700   3520   2560   2000   2960
Huntington Ck
  Electric Lake            Apr-Jul   15.6   117     23     19   12.2    9.2   13.3
  Power Plant, blo -Hunti  Apr-Jul     49   123     71     63     43     32     40
Seeley Ck
  Joes Vly Res, Orangevil  Apr-Jul     61   109     85     69     49     39     56
Ferron Ck
  Ferron, nr               Apr-Jul     40   105     58     46     34     27     38
Muddy Ck
  Emery, nr                Apr-Jul     21   106     34     27   18.8   13.7   19.9

Upper Colorado Basin - UC and Dolores
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Dolores River
  Cisco, nr                Apr-Jul    500    88    815    580    390    320    565
Colorado River
  Cisco, nr                Apr-Jul   3900    88   5800   4700   3250   2500   4440
  Lake Powell, Glen Cyn D  Apr-Jul   6500    91   9800   7750   5330   4100   7160

San Juan Basin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
San Juan River
  Bluff, nr                Apr-Jul    890    81   1450   1130    790    590   1100

lower colorado basin - virgin
                           Period     50%  %AVG    10%    30%    70%    90%    AVG
                           ------    ----  ----   ----   ----   ----   ----    ---
Santa Clara River
  Pine Valley, nr          Apr-Jul    3.3    66   10.0    4.6   2.50   1.95    5.0
Virgin River
  Virgin                   Apr-Jul     45    78    110     56     34     22     58
  Hurricane, nr            Apr-Jul     43    68    115     55   30.0   13.7     63
  Littlefield              Apr-Jul     38    58    117     54   25.0   11.1     65

50% Most probable volume in 1000 acre-feet.
%AVG  Most probable volume in percent of the 1981-2010 average.
10% Volume that has a 10 percent chance of being exceeded.
30% Volume that has a 30 percent chance of being exceeded.
90% Volume that has a 90 percent chance of being exceeded.
70% Volume that has a 70 percent chance of being exceeded.
AVG   Average volume for the 1981-2010 period.

All forecast volumes reflect natural flow.  Actual observed flow may
be affected by upstream water management.

CBRFC/bmb,an,tjc



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