Routine Fire Wx Fcst (With/Without 6-10 Day Outlook)
Issued by NWS Knoxville/Tri Cities, TN

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Fire Weather Planning Forecast for East Tennessee...UPDATED
Virginia...and Extreme Southwest North Carolina
National Weather Service Morristown TN
908 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

.DISCUSSION...
UNSEASONABLE WARMTH IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE WITH WEATHER
CONDITIONS TURNING UNSETTLED FOR THE REMAINDER OF THE WORK WEEK.
SHOWERS WILL MOVE THROUGH TONIGHT AND INTO EARLY WEDNESDAY AND ONCE
AGAIN ON THURSDAY. A COLD FRONT WILL APPROACH LATE FRIDAY, BRINGING
A CHANCE FOR THUNDERSTORMS FRIDAY NIGHT AND SATURDAY MORNING. MORE
SEASONABLE TEMPERATURES WILL FILTER INTO THE AREA FOR THE WEEKEND.


VAZ001-002-005-006-008-230315-
Jefferson National Forest/Virginia District 6-
908 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

                      Tonight      Wed          Wed Night    Thu

Cloud cover           Cloudy       Cloudy       MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      47-52 (+2)   58-63 (-8)   46-51        67-72
RH % (24h trend)      88-93 (+22)  68-73 (+38)  95-100       47-52
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   S  5
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SE  5        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  6
Precip type           showers      showers      showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     70           80           30           20
Precip duration       3            6            1            1
Precip begin          7 PM         Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing   7 PM
Precip amount         0.15         0.15         0.02         0.04
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI                               3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 3300                      5200
Transport wnd (mph)                S  9                      S 12
Dispersion                         10 Poor                   31 Fair
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   S  5
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE  7        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  8

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s to mid 70s. South
winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the mid 40s to lower 50s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Cooler. Highs in
the 40s to upper 50s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the
upper 30s to lower 50s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower
40s. Highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower
50s. Highs in the lower 50s to mid 60s. Southwest winds 5 to
10 mph.

$$

TNZ018-041-043-045-047-230315-
Northern Cherokee National Forest-
908 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

                      Tonight      Wed          Wed Night    Thu

Cloud cover           MCldy        Cloudy       MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      47-52 (+1)   56-61 (-6)   44-49        63-68
RH % (24h trend)      88-93 (+22)  69-74 (+32)  95-100       49-54
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   S  6 G15
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SE  7 G16    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  7 G16
Precip type           showers      showers      showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     80           80           30           20
Precip duration       3            6            1            1
Precip begin          7 PM         Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing   7 PM
Precip amount         0.10         0.16         0.02         0.02
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI                               3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 4100                      5200
Transport wnd (mph)                S  8                      S 12
Dispersion                         9 Poor                    25 Fair
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  S  5                      S  7 G15
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE  8 G16    S  5         LGT/VAR      S  8 G16

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 70s. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the mid 40s to lower 50s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Cooler. Highs in
the 50s to lower 60s. Northwest winds 5 to 15 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the
upper 30s to lower 50s. West winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows around 40. Highs
in the mid 40s to lower 60s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows around 50.
Highs in the 50s to 60s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ072-074-230315-
Tennessee Portion Of The Great Smoky Mountain National Park-
908 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

                      Tonight      Wed          Wed Night    Thu

Cloud cover           MCldy        Cloudy       MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      49-54 (+5)   58-63 (-6)   45-50        63-68
RH % (24h trend)      83-88 (+11)  65-70 (+29)  95-100       46-51
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   S  6 G18
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SE  7 G16    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  7 G18
Precip type           showers      showers      showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     80           70           20           20
Precip duration       5            2            1            1
Precip begin          7 PM         Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing   7 PM
Precip amount         0.12         0.09         0.02         0.02
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI                               3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 4300                      5500
Transport wnd (mph)                SE  8                     S 13
Dispersion                         8 Poor                    27 Fair
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  S  5                      S  8 G18
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE  8 G16    LGT/VAR      S  5         S 10 G18

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the 40s to mid 50s.
South winds 5 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 50s to mid 70s. South
winds 5 to 15 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms.
Colder. Lows in the upper 30s to lower 50s. Southwest winds 5 to
10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Slight chance of showers. Cooler.
Highs in the mid 40s to upper 50s. Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the
upper 30s to mid 50s. Southwest winds up to 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower
40s. Highs in the mid 40s to lower 60s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower
50s. Highs in the 50s to 60s. Southwest winds 5 to 15 mph.

$$

TNZ087-102-230315-
Southern Cherokee National Forest-
908 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

                      Tonight      Wed          Wed Night    Thu

Cloud cover           Cloudy       Cloudy       MCldy        PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      52-57 (+7)   63-68 (-4)   49-54        68-73
RH % (24h trend)      86-91 (+6)   64-69 (+27)  95-100       46-51
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   SE  7 G20
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SE  7 G16    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  8 G20
Precip type           showers      showers      showers      NONE
Chance precip (%)     80           60           20           0
Precip duration       5            2            1
Precip begin          7 PM         Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   1 AM
Precip amount         0.13         0.03         0.01         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI                               3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 4000                      5100
Transport wnd (mph)                SE  9                     S 16
Dispersion                         15 Gen poor               43 Gen good
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  SE  5                     SE  9 G20
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE  8 G16    LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S 11 G20

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s to mid 70s. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Lows in the 40s to lower 50s. Southwest winds 5 to
10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Cooler. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower
40s to mid 50s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid 40s.
Highs in the upper 40s to lower 60s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid 50s.
Highs in the lower 50s to mid 60s. South winds 5 to 15 mph.

$$

NCZ060-061-230315-
Nantahala National Forest-
908 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

                      Tonight      Wed          Wed Night    Thu

CLOUD COVER           Cloudy       Cloudy       MCldy        PCldy
TEMP (24H TREND)      51-56 (+13)  61-66 (-4)   47-52        67-72
RH % (24H TREND)      92-97 (-1)   68-73 (+27)  95-100       48-53
20FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  LGT/VAR                   SE  6 G17
20FT WIND-PM(MPH)     E  6         LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  8 G17
PRECIP TYPE           showers      showers      showers      NONE
CHANCE PRECIP (%)     80           60           20           0
PRECIP DURATION       5            2            1
PRECIP BEGIN          7 PM         Continuing   Continuing
PRECIP END            Continuing   Continuing   7 AM
PRECIP AMOUNT         0.12         0.06         0.01         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI                               3                         3
MIXING HGT(FT-MSL)                 4000                      5100
TRANSPORT WND (MPH)                SE  9                     S 15
DISPERSION                         14 Gen poor               38 Fair
MAX LVORI                          4                         4
33FT WIND-AM(MPH)                  SE  5                     SE  8 G17
33FT WIND-PM(MPH)     E  7         SE  5        LGT/VAR      S 10 G17

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows near 50. Southeast winds
5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Highs in the lower 60s to mid 70s. South
winds 5 to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid
40s to lower 50s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Cooler. Highs in the 40s to upper 50s.
Northwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the lower 30s. Highs in the 40s
to mid 50s. West winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower
40s. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid 50s.
Highs in the 50s to mid 60s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ015>017-038>040-042-044-046-070-230315-
East Tennessee District East-
908 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

                      Tonight      Wed          Wed Night    Thu

Cloud cover           Cloudy       Cloudy       MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      50-55 (+4)   60-65 (-8)   46-51        68-73
RH % (24h trend)      85-90 (+14)  67-72 (+35)  95-100       48-53
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SE  5        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  5
Precip type           showers      showers      showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     70           80           30           20
Precip duration       3            4            1            1
Precip begin          7 PM         Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing   7 PM
Precip amount         0.12         0.12         0.02         0.03
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI                               3                         4
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 2700                      5000
Transport wnd (mph)                SE  6                     SW 10
Dispersion                         7 Poor                    30 Fair
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   SE  5
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE  7        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  7

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 40s to mid
50s. Southeast winds less than 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Mostly sunny. Highs in the 60s to mid 70s. South winds
up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms. Lows
in the mid 40s to lower 50s. South winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Cooler. Highs in
the 50s to lower 60s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the lower
40s to mid 50s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the lower
40s. Highs in the upper 40s to lower 60s. South winds less than
10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid 50s.
Highs in the mid 50s to upper 60s. South winds up to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ012>014-035>037-067>069-071-073-086-230315-
East Tennessee District West-
908 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017

                      Tonight      Wed          Wed Night    Thu

Cloud cover           Cloudy       Cloudy       MCldy        MCldy
Temp (24h trend)      51-56 (+8)   62-67 (-5)   49-54        69-74
RH % (24h trend)      87-92 (+4)   65-70 (+29)  94-99        47-52
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   LGT/VAR
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  6 G17
Precip type           showers      showers      showers      showers
Chance precip (%)     70           60           20           20
Precip duration       3            2            1            1
Precip begin          7 PM         Continuing   Continuing   Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   Continuing   Continuing   7 PM
Precip amount         0.13         0.03         0.01         0.03
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI                               3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 2600                      5100
Transport wnd (mph)                SE  7                     S 15
Dispersion                         7 Poor                    50 Gen good
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   S  5 G15
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE  5        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  9 G17

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the 50s. South winds up
to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the upper 60s to mid 70s. South winds up
to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms.
Colder. Lows in the 40s to lower 50s. Southwest winds 5 to
10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Cooler. Highs in the upper 40s to
lower 60s. Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s to
mid 50s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the mid 40s.
Highs in the 50s to lower 60s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper
50s. Highs in the 50s to upper 60s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.

$$

TNZ077-079>085-097>101-230315-
Cumberland District South-
908 PM EST Tue Feb 21 2017 /808 PM CST Tue Feb 21 2017/

                      Tonight      Wed          Wed Night    Thu

Cloud cover           Cloudy       Cloudy       MCldy        PCldy
Temp (24h trend)      53-58 (+6)   65-70 (-2)   51-56        70-75
RH % (24h trend)      85-90 (+2)   64-69 (+22)  92-97        47-52
20ft Wind-AM(mph)                  LGT/VAR                   S  6 G16
20ft Wind-PM(mph)     SE  5        LGT/VAR      LGT/VAR      S  8 G17
Precip type           showers      showers      NONE         NONE
Chance precip (%)     70           40           0            0
Precip duration       3            1
Precip begin          7 PM         Continuing
Precip end            Continuing   7 PM
Precip amount         0.11         0.02         0.00         0.00
LAL                   1            1            1            1
LASI                               3                         3
Mixing hgt(ft-MSL)                 3100                      5100
Transport wnd (mph)                SE  8                     S 15
Dispersion                         13 Gen poor               50 Gen good
33ft wind-AM(mph)                  E  5                      S  7 G16
33ft wind-PM(mph)     SE  6        SE  5        LGT/VAR      S  9 G17

Remarks...None.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...Partly cloudy. Lows in the mid 50s. South winds
up to 10 mph.
.FRIDAY...Partly sunny. Slight chance of showers and
thunderstorms. Highs in the lower to mid 70s. South winds 5 to
10 mph.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...Showers likely and chance of thunderstorms.
Colder. Lows in the 40s to mid 50s. Southwest winds 5 to 10 mph.
.SATURDAY...Partly cloudy. Cooler. Highs in the 50s to lower 60s.
Northwest winds up to 10 mph.
.SUNDAY...Mostly clear. Lows in the mid 30s. Highs in the 40s to
upper 50s. Southwest winds less than 10 mph.
.MONDAY...Mostly cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper
40s. Highs in the mid 50s to lower 60s. South winds up to 10 mph.
.TUESDAY...Cloudy. Chance of showers. Lows in the upper 50s.
Highs in the 60s. South winds 5 to 15 mph.

$$



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