Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FNUS75 KBOU 220439
FWSBOU

Spot Forecast for ELKHORN CREEK...NATURE CONSERVANCY
National Weather Service Denver/Boulder CO
1039 PM MDT Thu Sep 21 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 2300 MDT on September 21.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...South to southwest flow aloft will continue over the
Colorado mountains on Friday as a developing upper trough moves
across Utah. Temperatures will be slightly cooler than Thursday
with an increase in clouds during the afternoon. A cold front will move
in from the north Friday night with much cooler temperatures. The
upper trough will move over the state on Saturday with continued
cooler temperatures and a good chance of rain.

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny until 1000, then partly
                    cloudy(40-50%) until 1400, then mostly cloudy. Slight chance of
                    thunderstorms after 1500.
CWR.................5 percent.
LAL.................1 until 1400, then 2 until 1500, then 3.
Max temperature.....68-72.
Min humidity........22-28%.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 6-12 mph. Gusts up to 20 mph in the
                    afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected near thunderstorms
                    after 1400.
Mixing height.......2600-3600 ft AGL until 1000, then
                    5900-6900 ft AGL until 1200, then 7100-8100 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 15-25 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor until 1000, then good until 1300, then very good
                    until 1800.
Haines Index........4 low.

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Chance of rain showers and
                    slight chance of thunderstorms until 2400, then
                    slight chance of rain showers.
CWR.................10 percent.
LAL.................2 until 2400, then 1.
Min temperature.....38-44.
Max humidity........88-94%.
Wind (20 ft)........West winds 5-11 mph with gusts to around 16 mph
                    until 2400. east 4-8 mph after 0300. Gusty and
                    erratic winds expected near thunderstorms until
                    2400.
Mixing height.......1100-1800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West around 10 mph until 2400, then southeast.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Haines Index........4 low.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy. Chance of rain showers until 1200, then
                    rain showers likely and slight chance of
                    thunderstorms.
CWR.................20 percent increasing to 45 percent in the
                    afternoon.
LAL.................1 until 1200, then 2.
Max temperature.....Around 55.
Min humidity........60-66%.
Wind (20 ft)........East winds 5-11 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms after 1200.
Mixing height.......1500-2500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 10-15 mph.
Smoke dispersal.....Poor.
Haines Index........3 very low.


Fire Weather Table for ELKHORN CREEK.

+++  Data in the following table has been sampled directly from the
     forecast database.  Values in the table may vary slightly from
     information in the narrative forecast.  Feedback welcome.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

09/21-23  5  0  0 52 35 WSW  7  7 4 1         1615 SSW  7  9720 P
09/22-00  4  0  0 51 36   W  7  7 4 1         1464  SW  7  8446 P
09/22-01  4  0  0 50 37 WSW  6  6 4 1         1584  SW  8 10631 P
09/22-02  3  0  0 49 39 WSW  5  5 4 1         1703  SW  9 13042 P
09/22-03  4  0  0 48 40 WSW  3  3 3 1         1822  SW 10 15678 P
09/22-04  6  0  0 47 44 WSW  3  3 3 1         1718  SW 12 17753 P
09/22-05  7  0  0 46 47   W  3  3 2 1         1614 WSW 14 19467 P
09/22-06  9  1  0 46 51   W  5  5 2 1         1510 WSW 16 20821 P
09/22-07 12  1  0 48 52   W  6  6 2 1         2393 WSW 20 40450  F
09/22-08 15  2  0 52 50  SW  6  6 2 1         3276 WSW 23 65579   G
09/22-09 18  2  0 57 43 SSW  7  7 2 1         4159  SW 26 96207   G
09/22-10 31  2  0 62 36 SSW  8 13 2 1         5610  SW 24119402    V
09/22-11 44  2  0 66 32 SSW  9 15 3 1         7061 SSW 22137230    V
09/22-12 57  4  1 69 27 SSW 10 16 3 1         8512 SSW 21149689    V
09/22-13 66  7  1 69 27 SSW 12 18 3 1         7554 SSW 17114448    V
09/22-14 76 13  3 68 28 SSW 12 18 3 2         6595 SSW 15 83874   G
09/22-15 86 20  4 66 30  SW 12 18 3 3         5637 SSW 12 57965  F
09/22-16 79 20  4 64 33 WSW 13 21 3 3         4354  SW  9 36540 P
09/22-17 71 20  4 63 32   W 13 21 4 3         3071 WSW  8 20835 P
09/22-18 64 29  8 61 35 WNW 12 18 4 2         1788 WSW  6  9256 P
09/22-19 65 29  8 56 42   W  9 15 4 2         1671 WSW  6  7948 P
09/22-20 64 29  8 53 46   W  6  6 4 2         1553 WSW  5  6738 P
09/22-21 63 29  8 50 52   W  6  6 4 2         1436 WSW  5  5626 P
09/22-22 63 29  8 48 56 WNW  6  6 4 2         1356 WSW  5  5260 P
09/22-23 62 29  8 46 60 WNW  6  6 3 2         1277   W  5  4900 P
09/23-00 61 19  4 46 60  NW  6  6 3 1         1198   W  5  4546 P
09/23-01 64 19  4 45 64 NNW  6  6 3 1         1213  SW  5  5439 P
09/23-02 66 19  4 45 66  NE  5  5 3 1         1228 SSE  6  6351 P
09/23-03 69 19  4 44 70 ENE  5  5 3 1         1242 ESE  7  7284 P
09/23-04 71 19  4 43 75 ENE  5  5 3 1         1182 ESE  6  6355 P
09/23-05 74 19  4 42 80   E  5  5 3 1         1121   E  6  5485 P
09/23-06 76 42 19 41 86   E  5  5 3 1         1060   E  5  4674 P
09/23-07 77 42 19 41 89   E  5  5 3 1         1241   E  5  5171 P
09/23-08 79 42 19 42 89   E  5  5 3 1         1421   E  5  5582 P
09/23-09 80 42 19 44 86   E  5  5 3 1         1602   E  5  5906 P
09/23-10 81 42 19 48 76   E  6  6 3 1         1927   E  6  9768 P
09/23-11 81 42 19 52 67   E  8 13 2 1         2252 ESE  7 14530 P
09/23-12 82 65 45 54 64 ESE  9 15 2 2         2577  SE  9 20190 P
09/23-13 84 65 45 55 63   E  9 15 2 2         2544 ESE  9 19753 P
09/23-14 86 65 45 54 66   E  9 14 2 2         2512 ESE  9 19321 P
09/23-15 88 65 45 53 69   E  8 13 2 2         2479   E  9 18893 P
09/23-16 89 65 45 52 72   E  7  7 2 2         2296   E  7 14835 P
09/23-17 90 65 45 50 77 ENE  7  7 2 2         2113  NE  6 11202 P
09/23-18 90 69 51 48 83 ENE  6  6 2 2         1930  NE  5  7994 P
09/23-19 90 69 51 46 89  NE  6  6 2 2         1893  NE  6  9462 P
09/23-20 90 69 51 43 98  NE  5  5 2 2         1856  NE  7 10866 P
09/23-21 90 69 51 41100  NE  5  5 2 2         1818 ENE  8 12206 P
09/23-22 90 69 51 40100  NE  5  5 2 2         1816 ENE  7 11193 P
09/23-23 90 69 51 40100 NNE  5  5 2 2         1814 ENE  7 10183 P
09/24-00 87 55 30 40100 NNE  5  5 2 1         1811 ENE  6  9175 P
09/24-01 87 55 30 41 95 NNE  5  5 2 1         1813 ENE  6  8585 P
09/24-02 87 55 30 42 90  NE  5  5 2 1         1816   E  5  7994 P
09/24-03 87 55 30 43 86  NE  5  5 2 1         1818   E  5  7401 P
09/24-04 87 55 30 41 90  NE  5  5 2 1         1735   E  5  7346 P
09/24-05 87 55 30 39 95  NE  5  5 2 1         1652   E  5  7264 P
09/24-06 86 41 18 37100 ENE  5  5 2 1         1568   E  6  7154 P
09/24-07 86 41 18 37 99 ENE  5  5 2 1         1603   E  6  7501 P
09/24-08 86 41 18 38 95 ENE  5  5 2 1         1638 ESE  6  7857 P
09/24-09 86 41 18 39 92   E  5  5 2 1         1673 ESE  6  8221 P
09/24-10 86 41 18 41 86   E  6  6 2 1         1849 ESE  7 10629 P
09/24-11 86 41 18 42 84   E  6  6 2 1         2024  SE  8 13331 P
09/24-12 86 56 32 44 79   E  7  7 2 2         2200  SE  8 16326 P
09/24-13 86 56 32 45 78   E  8  8 2 2         2337  SE 10 20241 P
09/24-14 86 56 32 46 76   E  8 13 2 2         2475  SE 12 24496 P
09/24-15 86 56 32 46 76   E  8 13 2 2         2612  SE 13 29092 P
09/24-16 86 56 32 44 82   E  8  8 2 2         2441  SE 13 26176 P
09/24-17 86 56 32 42 87   E  7  7 2 2         2269  SE 12 23401 P
09/24-18 93 56 32 41 89 ENE  6  6 2 2         2097  SE 12

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...DANKERS
REQUESTED BY...CARMELLA LOCASCIO
TYPE OF REQUEST...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1715992.3/BOU



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