Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FNUS75 KBOU 232118
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR MUSIC LANE FIRE...OTHER
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
318 PM MDT TUE AUG 23 2016

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1445 MDT ON AUGUST 23.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...AN UPPER LEVEL LOW PRESSURE AREA IS LOCATED OVER THE
FOUR CORNERS REGION LATE THIS AFTERNOON.  MOISTURE AND INSTABILITY
ROTATING AROUND THE LOW WILL MOVE SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS OVER THE
MOUNTAINS THROUGH THIS AFTERNOON AND EVENING.  SCATTERED
THUNDERSTORMS WILL MOVE FROM SOUTH TO NORTHWEST ALONG THE FRONT
RANGE FOOTHILLS THIS EVENING. STORMS WILL BE SLOW-MOVING AND CAPABLE
OF PRODUCING LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL ALONG WITH WIND GUSTS UP TO 30
MPH. STORM ACTIVITY SHOULD BE FINISHED BY MIDNIGHT.  THE UPPER LEVEL
LOW WILL BE OVER SOUTHEAST COLORADO ON WEDNESDAY WITH ANOTHER ROUND
OF AFTERNOON SHOWERS EXPECTED.  TEMPERATURES WILL BE MILD OVERNIGHT
AND THEN COOLER THAN NORMAL ON WEDNESDAY DUE TO CLOUD COVER AND
DEVELOPING SHOWERS.

.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS THROUGH 2200.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....52-58.
MAX HUMIDITY........65-73%.
WIND (20 FT)........SOUTHWEST WINDS 8-14 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN THE
                    EVENING. DOWNSLOPE/DOWNVALLEY 5-10 MPH AFTER 2300.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................30 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
MIXING HEIGHT.......7500-8000 FT AGL UNTIL 2000. 1000-1500 FT AGL AFTER
                    2200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....WEST 10-20 MPH.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....GOOD UNTIL 2100. POOR AFTER 2300.

.WEDNESDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    1000...THEN CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    1700.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....68-73.
MIN HUMIDITY........34-40%.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 4-8 MPH UNTIL 0900...THEN
                    EAST 5-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
                    NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................10 PERCENT.
LAL.................3 UNTIL 1000...THEN 4 UNTIL 1700.
MIXING HEIGHT.......3000-4000 FT AGL UNTIL 0900. 7600-8600 FT AGL
                    AFTER 1200.
TRANSPORT WINDS.....NORTHWEST AROUND 10 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    LIGHT.
SMOKE DISPERSAL.....POOR.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR MUSIC LANE FIRE.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

08/23-14 74 13  3 80 23 NNE  6  6 3 2  SE  6 12392   CALM 11086 P
08/23-15 81 14  3 77 26 NNE  6  6 3 2 ESE  7 12070   CALM 10498 P
08/23-16 83 15  3 74 29   N  7  7 3 3 ESE  9 10643   N  5 38609 P
08/23-17 85 16  3 72 33  NW  9  9 2 3   E 13  9216 WNW  7 58850  F
08/23-18 87 17  3 69 39 WNW 10 16 2 3   E 15  7790 WSW 10 71223   G
08/23-19 86 16  3 66 45 WNW 12 17 2 3   E 20  6152 WSW 14 71863   G
08/23-20 86 16  3 64 51   W 13 18 3 3 ESE 23  4514   W 16 64188   G
08/23-21 86 15  3 62 56 WSW 13 20 3 3 ESE 28  2876   W 20 48198  F
08/23-22 85 16  3 61 58 WSW 12 17 3 3 ESE 29  2792   W 20 47011  F
08/23-23 83 16  3 60 60 WSW  9  9 2 3 ESE 30  2707 WSW 20 45811  F
08/24-00 88 17  3 60 60   W  7  7 2 3 ESE 32  2623 WSW 20 44597  F
08/24-01 86 17  3 59 62   W  6  6 2 3 ESE 28  2368 WSW 17 35181 P
08/24-02 85 17  3 58 63   W  5  5 2 3 ESE 24  2113 WSW 15 26860 P
08/24-03 83 17  3 57 64   W  5  5 2 3 ESE 21  1858 WSW 13 19632 P
08/24-04 84 17  3 56 65   W  5  5 2 3 ESE 20  2005 WSW 10 18727 P
08/24-05 85 17  3 55 65   W  6  6 2 3 ESE 18  2153 WSW  9 17460 P
08/24-06 86 17  3 55 64   W  6  6 2 3 ESE 17  2300 WSW  8 15831 P
08/24-07 83 19  4 55 64 WNW  6  6 2 3 ESE 14  3470   W  7 21125 P
08/24-08 83 21  4 56 63 NNW  5  5 2 3   E 10  4640 WNW  6 24561 P
08/24-09 83 23  5 58 60   N  5  5 2 3   E  6  5810  NW  5 26138 P
08/24-10 83 25  5 61 53 NNE  5  5 2 4  NE  8  6853 NNW  5 29118 P
08/24-11 83 26  6 64 47 ENE  6  6 2 4   N 10  7895 NNE  5 31578 P
08/24-12 83 27  6 67 42   E  6  6 2 4  NW 13  8938  NE  5 33517 P
08/24-13 83 28  7 68 40   E  6  6 2 4  NW 15  8558 ENE  3 27637 P
08/24-14 83 29  8 70 36   E  7  7 2 4  NW 17  8179   E  3 22152 P
08/24-15 82 30  9 70 36   E  7  7 2 4  NW 20  7800   E  2 17062 P
08/24-16 82 27  7 71 36   E  7  7 2 4  NW 18  7613   E  3 21133 P
08/24-17 82 21  4 70 38   E  6  6 2 3 WNW 18  7425 ESE  3 24984 P
08/24-18 82 18  4 67 43   E  6  6 2 3 WNW 17  7238  SE  5 28614 P
08/24-19 82 18  4 65 47 ESE  6  6 2 3 WNW 17  6442  SE  5 23420 P
08/24-20 82 18  4 62 53  SE  6  6 3 3 WNW 17  5646  SE  3 18732 P
08/24-21 82 18  4 59 60  SE  6  6 3 3 WNW 17  4850  SE  3 16945 P
08/24-22 82 18  4 58 62 SSE  5  5 3 3 WNW 16  4158 SSE  3 13141 P
08/24-23 82 18  4 56 67   S  5  5 3 3   W 15  3466 SSE  3  9798 P
08/25-00 50  7  1 55 69 SSW  3  3 3 1   W 13  2774 SSE  2  6917 P
08/25-01 50  7  1 54 72 SSW  2  2 3 1   W 14  2306   S  2  5376 P
08/25-02 50  7  1 53 74 WSW  2  2 3 1   W 15  1838   W  2  3988 P
08/25-03 50  7  1 52 77 WSW  2  2 3 1   W 15  1370 WNW  2  2751 P
08/25-04 50  7  1 50 82   W  2  2 3 1   W 16  1285  NW  2  2372 P
08/25-05 50  7  1 49 84 WNW  3  3 3 1   W 16  1200   N  2  2021 P
08/25-06 53 11  2 49 83  NW  3  3 3 2   W 16  1115   N  2  1697 P
08/25-07 53 11  2 51 77 NNW  3  3 3 2   W 17  1945 NNE  2  3018 P
08/25-08 53 11  2 54 70  NE  3  3 3 2   W 18  2774   E  2  4389 P
08/25-09 53 11  2 57 64 ENE  3  3 3 2   W 20  3603   E  2  5811 P
08/25-10 53 11  2 60 59   E  5  5 3 2   W 20  4268 ESE  2  9425 P
08/25-11 53 11  2 63 53   E  5  5 3 2   W 20  4932 SSE  3 13831 P
08/25-12 85 37 15 66 48 ESE  6  6 3 4   W 21  5597 SSE  3 19028 P
08/25-13 85 37 15 69 43 ESE  6  6 3 4   W 18  7170   S  3 24308 P
08/25-14 85 37 15 71 40  SE  6  6 3 4   W 16  8744   S  3 29558 P
08/25-15 85 37 15 72 38  SE  6  6 3 4   W 15 10317   S  3 34777 P
08/25-16 85 37 15 71 39 SSE  7  7 3 4   W 13  8733   S  7 55140  F
08/25-17 85 37 15 69 43   S  7  7 3 4   W 12  7149   S 10 66180   G
08/25-18 80 27  7 66 48   S  8  8 3 4   W  9  5566   S 14 67899   G
08/25-19 80 27  7 64 53   S  8  8 3 4   W  8  4904   S 17 71797   G
08/25-20 80 27  7 62 59   S  8  8 3 4   W  7  4242   S 20 72466   G
08/25-21 80 27  7 61 62   S  8  8 3 4   W  6  3581   S 23 69905   G
08/25-22 80 27  7 59 67   S  8  8 3 4   W  8  3118   S 21 56537  F
08/25-23 80 27  7 58 68 SSW  7  7 3 4   W  9  2656   S 20 44457  F
08/26-00 66 15  3 57 69 SSW  7  7 3 3   W 10  2194   S 17 33664 P
08/26-01 66 15  3 57 68 SSW  7  7 3 3   W  9  1788   S 15 24059 P
08/26-02 66 15  3 56 70  SW  7  7 3 3  SW  8  1382 SSW 14 15988 P
08/26-03 66 15  3 55 72  SW  7  7 3 3  SW  8   977 SSW 12  9450 P
08/26-04 66 15  3 54 74  SW  7  7 3 3  SW 10   987 SSW 10  8880 P
08/26-05 66 15  3 53 77 WSW  7  7 3 3 SSW 13   998  SW  9  8297 P
08/26-06 73 20  4 53 77 WSW  7  7 3 3 SSW 15  1008  SW  9  7698 P
08/26-07 73 20  4 56 69 WSW  6  6 3 3  SW 15  2425 WSW  8 17114 P
08/26-08 73 20  4 60 60 WSW  6  6 3 3 WSW 14  3841 WNW  7 24893 P
08/26-09 73 20  4 64 52 WSW  5  5 3 3   W 13  5258  NW  7 31037 P
08/26-10 73 20  4 67 47 SSW  5  5 3 3   W 17  6377  NW  7 39091 P
08/26-11 73 20  4 70 42 ESE  3  3 3 3   W 21  7496 WNW  7 47653  F
08/26-12 73 35 13 72 39 ENE  3  3 3 4   W 25  8615 WNW  8 56723  F
08/26-13 73 35 13 74 36  NE  3  3 3 4   W 25  9375 WNW  7 58151  F
08/26-14 73 35 13 76 33   N  3  3 3 4   W 25 10134   W  7 59000  F
08/26-15 73 35 13 77 31   N  3  3 3 4   W 26 10893   W  6 59270  F
08/26-16 73 35 13 77 31   N  3  3 3 4   W 23 10574   W  5 46729  F
08/26-17 73 35 13 75 35 NNW  5  5 3 4   W 20 10254 WNW  3 34840 P
08/26-18 47 14  3 73 38 NNW  5  5 3 2   W 16  9935 WNW  2 23605 P

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...DANKERS
REQUESTED BY...117
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20160823.MUSIC.01/BOU



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