Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Denver/Boulder, CO

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FNUS75 KBOU 262235
FWSBOU

SPOT FORECAST FOR FERN LAKE...ROCKY MOUNTAIN NATIONAL PARK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE DENVER/BOULDER CO
435 PM MDT WED AUG 26 2015

FORECAST IS BASED ON REQUEST TIME OF 1619 MDT ON AUGUST 26.
IF CONDITIONS BECOME UNREPRESENTATIVE...CONTACT THE NATIONAL
WEATHER SERVICE.

.DISCUSSION...SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS ALONG WITH AN ISOLATED
THUNDERSTORM WILL AFFECT THE AREA THIS EVENING. RAINFALL AMOUNTS
WILL BE LIGHT AN UNDER ONE TENTH OF AN INCH. OVERNIGHT THERE WILL
STILL BE A CHANCE OF LIGHT RAIN SHOWERS. WINDS WILL BE WEST 8 TO
14 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 25 MPH AT TIMES. HUMIDITY LEVELS WILL
INCREASE TO AROUND 90% BY LATE TONIGHT. ON THURSDAY IT WILL BE
COOLER WITH A CHANCE OF SHOWERS ALONG WITH A SLIGHT CHANCE OF
THUNDERSTORMS. MINIMUM HUMIDITIES IN THE AFTERNOON WILL ONLY DROP
TO AROUND 60%.


.TONIGHT...

SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS UNTIL 2400.
SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AFTER 0300.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 46.
MAX HUMIDITY........93%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 8-13 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH IN
THE LATE EVENING AND OVERNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED
NEAR THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................40 PERCENT DECREASING TO 20 PERCENT LATE IN
THE NIGHT.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.

.THURSDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........CLOUDY. SCATTERED RAIN SHOWERS AND SLIGHT
                    CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 58.
MIN HUMIDITY........59%.
WIND (20 FT)........WEST WINDS 11-17 MPH WITH GUSTS TO 30 MPH.
                    GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS.
CWR.................25 PERCENT.
LAL.................3.
HAINES INDEX........2 VERY LOW.

.THURSDAY NIGHT...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY CLOUDY UNTIL 2400...THEN PARTLY
                    CLOUDY(30-35%). CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL
                    2400.
MIN TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 43.
MAX HUMIDITY........81%.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 9-10 MPH. GUSTS UP TO 20 MPH
                    EARLY IN THE EVENING THEN 20 MPH AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT. GUSTY AND ERRATIC WINDS EXPECTED NEAR
                    THUNDERSTORMS UNTIL 2400.
CWR.................15 PERCENT DECREASING TO 0 PERCENT AFTER
                    MIDNIGHT.
LAL.................4 UNTIL 2400...THEN 1.
HAINES INDEX........4 LOW.

.FRIDAY...
SKY/WEATHER.........MOSTLY SUNNY UNTIL 1200...THEN MOSTLY
                    CLOUDY(60-65%). SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS
                    AFTER 1200.
MAX TEMPERATURE.....AROUND 62.
MIN HUMIDITY........35%.
WIND (20 FT)........NORTHWEST WINDS 8-9 MPH UNTIL 1200...THEN
                    UPSLOPE/UPVALLEY 4-10 MPH. GUSTY AND ERRATIC
                    WINDS EXPECTED NEAR THUNDERSTORMS AFTER 1200.
CWR.................5 PERCENT.
LAL.................1 UNTIL 1200...THEN 3.
HAINES INDEX........3 VERY LOW.

.FORECAST DAYS 3 THROUGH 5...
.SATURDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS
IN THE MID 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS
LESS THAN 10 MPH.
.SUNDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN THE
UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. TYPICAL SLOPE/VALLEY WINDS LESS
THAN 10 MPH.
.MONDAY...PARTLY CLOUDY. SLIGHT CHANCE OF THUNDERSTORMS. LOWS IN
THE UPPER 40S. HIGHS IN THE MID 60S. SOUTHWEST WINDS 6-12 MPH.


FIRE WEATHER TABLE FOR FERN LAKE.

+++  DATA IN THE FOLLOWING TABLE HAS BEEN SAMPLED DIRECTLY FROM THE
     FORECAST DATABASE.  VALUES IN THE TABLE MAY VARY SLIGHTLY FROM
     INFORMATION IN THE NARRATIVE FORECAST.  FEEDBACK WELCOME.  +++

FORECAST SC PP WR AT RH  20-FT  G H L  15KFT  MIXG  TRANS VENTL  AJTV
VALID AT  %  %  %  F  %   WIND  S I A   WIND   HGT   WIND  RATE RATNG
                           MPH  T   L    MPH   AGL    MPH KT-FT

08/26-16 82 61 39 63 38 SSW  7  7 2 3   S  8  8690   S  7 49621  F
08/26-17 87 61 39 59 45  SW  7  7 2 3 SSW 10  7593 SSW  8 56236  F
08/26-18 93 61 39 56 53 WSW  7  7 2 3  SW 13  6497  SW 10 59131  F
08/26-19 93 60 38 53 62 WSW  9 14 2 3 SSW 15  5461  SW 13 59354  F
08/26-20 93 60 38 51 71 WSW 10 17 2 3 SSW 17  4426  SW 15 55919  F
08/26-21 93 60 38 49 80   W 13 21 2 3   S 20  3390  SW 16 48824  F
08/26-22 93 60 38 47 86   W 13 21 2 3   S 18  3024  SW 17 46536  F
08/26-23 94 57 33 47 84 WSW 13 21 2 3 SSW 17  2658 WSW 18 43527  F
08/27-00 94 57 33 46 86 WSW 13 21 2 3 SSW 15  2293 WSW 20 39797 P
08/27-01 93 57 33 46 86 WSW 14 22 2 3  SW 20  2264 WSW 24 46663  F
08/27-02 93 57 33 46 88   W 14 23 2 3 WSW 25  2235   W 28 53343  F
08/27-03 92 45 22 46 89   W 15 24 2 3   W 30  2206   W 31 59837  F
08/27-04 91 45 22 46 91   W 15 24 2 3   W 32  2130   W 30 54869  F
08/27-05 90 45 22 46 92   W 15 24 2 3   W 33  2053   W 28 50109  F
08/27-06 90 43 20 46 93   W 15 24 2 3   W 36  1976   W 26 45558  F
08/27-07 90 43 20 46 93   W 16 26 2 3   W 33  2358   W 26 55093  F
08/27-08 90 43 20 46 93   W 17 28 2 3   W 30  2740   W 28 64863   G
08/27-09 90 43 20 47 89   W 18 30 2 3   W 28  3123   W 28 74868   G
08/27-10 90 43 20 50 81   W 17 28 2 3   W 29  3510   W 28 84738   G
08/27-11 90 43 20 53 74   W 16 26 2 3 WNW 29  3898 WNW 28 94736   G
08/27-12 89 49 25 56 66   W 15 24 2 3 WNW 30  4285 WNW 28104863    V
08/27-13 89 49 25 57 64   W 15 24 2 3 WNW 29  4501 WNW 28108874    V
08/27-14 89 49 25 58 61 WNW 15 24 2 3 WNW 29  4716 WNW 28112764    V
08/27-15 89 49 25 58 60 WNW 15 24 2 3 WNW 29  4932 WNW 28116533    V
08/27-16 89 49 25 58 59 WNW 14 23 2 3 WNW 30  4983 WNW 26114304    V
08/27-17 89 49 25 57 60 WNW 13 21 2 3 WNW 30  5035 WNW 25112002    V
08/27-18 71 35 13 56 62 WNW 12 18 2 4  NW 31  5087 WNW 25109629    V
08/27-19 71 35 13 55 63 WNW 12 17 2 4  NW 31  4844 WNW 25105110    V
08/27-20 71 35 13 53 67 WNW 10 17 2 4  NW 32  4600 WNW 25100518    V
08/27-21 71 35 13 51 71 WNW 10 16 2 4  NW 33  4357  NW 25 94909   G
08/27-22 71 35 13 50 73 WNW 10 16 2 4  NW 31  4026  NW 24 84126   G
08/27-23 71 35 13 48 78 WNW 10 16 2 4 NNW 29  3695 NNW 23 73929   G
08/28-00 32  5  1 47 80  NW 10 16 2 1 NNW 25  3365 NNW 22 64321   G
08/28-01 32  5  1 46 80  NW 10 17 3 1 NNW 28  2923 NNW 22 54296  F
08/28-02 32  5  1 45 79  NW 12 18 3 1 NNW 29  2482 NNW 21 44750  F
08/28-03 32  5  1 44 79  NW 12 18 4 1 NNW 30  2041  NW 20 35684 P
08/28-04 32  5  1 43 81  NW 12 18 3 1 NNW 30  1881  NW 20 31938 P
08/28-05 32  5  1 43 80  NW 10 17 3 1 NNW 29  1722  NW 18 28355 P
08/28-06 28  3  1 43 79  NW 10 16 2 1 NNW 28  1563  NW 18 24934 P
08/28-07 28  3  1 44 75  NW 10 16 2 1 NNW 26  2352 NNW 20 38973 P
08/28-08 28  3  1 46 69 NNW  9 16 2 1 NNW 25  3142 NNW 20 53979  F
08/28-09 28  3  1 48 63 NNW  9 15 2 1   N 24  3931 NNW 21 69952   G
08/28-10 28  3  1 52 54 NNW  8 13 2 1 NNW 21  5644 NNW 18 88149   G
08/28-11 28  3  1 56 46   N  7  7 2 1 NNW 17  7356 NNW 15 98899   G
08/28-12 62 22  4 59 40   N  6  6 2 3 NNW 13  9068 NNW 13102202    V
08/28-13 62 22  4 61 37 NNE  6  6 2 3 NNW 12  9682 NNW 10 91115   G
08/28-14 62 22  4 62 35 ENE  7  7 3 3 NNW  9 10295   N  9 77746   G
08/28-15 62 22  4 62 35   E  7  7 3 3 NNW  8 10909   N  7 62096   G
08/28-16 62 22  4 62 36   E  7  7 3 3 NNW  8 10141   N  6 53433  F
08/28-17 62 22  4 61 39 ENE  6  6 3 3 NNW  8  9373 NNW  6 45420  F
08/28-18 56 20  4 59 44 ENE  6  6 3 3  NW  8  8606 NNW  5 38058 P
08/28-19 56 20  4 57 47   E  6  6 3 3  NW  7  7906 WNW  5 29682 P
08/28-20 56 20  4 56 49  SE  7  7 2 3 WNW  5  7207 WSW  3 22240 P
08/28-21 56 20  4 54 52 SSE  7  7 2 3 WNW  3  6508  SW  2 15733 P
08/28-22 56 20  4 52 57 SSE  7  7 2 3   W  5  5376 SSW  5 21883 P
08/28-23 56 20  4 50 63 SSE  7  7 2 3 WSW  6  4245 SSW  7 24292 P
08/29-00 19  1  0 49 66 SSE  7  7 2 1  SW  7  3113   S  8 22960 P
08/29-01 19  1  0 48 67 SSW  7  7 2 1  SW  7  2675 SSW  8 18390 P
08/29-02 19  1  0 47 68   W  6  6 2 1 WSW  6  2237  SW  7 14258 P
08/29-03 19  1  0 47 65 WNW  6  6 2 1   W  5  1799  SW  7 10565 P
08/29-04 19  1  0 46 66 WNW  6  6 2 1   W  5  1492 WSW  7  9113 P
08/29-05 19  1  0 45 66   W  7  7 2 1   W  5  1185 WSW  7  7517 P
08/29-06 21  2  0 45 65 WSW  7  7 2 1   W  3   879 WSW  8  5778 P
08/29-07 21  2  0 47 60   W  7  7 2 1   W  5  1800   W  7 10725 P
08/29-08 21  2  0 49 56   W  7  7 2 1   W  5  2722   W  6 14533 P
08/29-09 21  2  0 53 48 WNW  7  7 2 1   W  5  3643   W  6 17201 P
08/29-10 21  2  0 57 42   W  7  7 2 1   W  6  5417   W  6 27979 P
08/29-11 21  2  0 61 37 WSW  6  6 2 1   W  7  7192   W  7 40330  F
08/29-12 42 10  2 64 34  SW  6  6 2 2   W  8  8966   W  7 54253  F
08/29-13 42 10  2 66 31  SW  6  6 2 2   W  9  9560   W  8 63363   G
08/29-14 42 10  2 66 31  SW  7  7 3 2   W 10 10154   W  8 73158   G
08/29-15 42 10  2 66 31  SW  7  7 3 2   W 12 10748   W  9 83638   G
08/29-16 42 10  2 65 31  SW  7  7 3 2   W 10 10375   W  8 72839   G
08/29-17 42 10  2 64 32  SW  6  6 3 2   W  9 10001   W  7 62607   G
08/29-18 49  8  2 62 34  SW  6  6 3 1   W  8  9628   W  6 52944  F

KEY:

FORECAST    - MONTH/DAY-HOUR OF FORECAST
VALID AT    - /24-HOUR CLOCK LOCAL TIME/
SC          - SKY COVER /PERCENT/
PP          - PROBABILITY OF PRECIPITATION 0.01 INCH /PERCENT/
WR          - PROBABILITY OF WETTING RAIN 0.10 INCH /PERCENT/
AT          - TEMPERATURE /DEGREES F/
RH          - RELATIVE HUMIDITY /PERCENT/
20-FT WIND  - 20-FOOT WIND /MPH/
GST         - 20-FOOT WIND GUST /MPH/
HI          - HAINES INDEX
LAL         - LIGHTNING ACTIVITY LEVEL
15KFT WIND  - 15000 FEET ABOVE MEAN SEA LEVEL FREE-AIR WINDS /MPH/
MIXG HGT    - MIXING HEIGHT /FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL/
TRANS WIND  - TRANSPORT WINDS /MPH/
VENTL RATE  - VENTILATION RATE /KNOT-FEET/
AJTV RATNG  - SMOKE DISPERSION ADJECTIVE RATING
                P - POOR  F - FAIR  G - GOOD
                V - VERY GOOD  E - EXCELLENT

$$
FORECASTER...RPK
REQUESTED BY...MIKE FOLEY
TYPE OF REQUEST...WILDFIRE
.TAG 20150826.FERNL.01/BOU


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