Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Columbia, SC

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656
FNUS72 KCAE 301403
FWSCAE

Spot Forecast for Cheraw A...The Nature Conservancy
National Weather Service Columbia SC
1003 AM EDT Thu Mar 30 2017

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1500 EDT on March 30.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

Positive or negative feedback including observations taken at
the burn site would be greatly appreciated. You can use the same
webpage where you requested the spot forecast for this. You may
also call our office if you have questions or concerns.

.DISCUSSION...
East-northeast winds this morning will become southeast this afternoon
as high pressure weakens across the area. There will be a chance for
showers and thunderstorms by mid-afternoon. Min rh will be around 55
percent. Additional thunderstorm expected tonight as a warm front moves
through and again Friday with a cold front.

.TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (55-65 percent)...then becoming
                    mostly cloudy (80-90 percent). A slight chance
                    of showers early in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......20 percent.
LAL.................No Tstms.
Temperature.........71 at ignition...Max 73.
RH..................57 percent at ignition...Min 55 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Winds southeast at 9 mph at
                    ignition...otherwise Light and variable
                    winds...becoming southeast 6 to 9 mph.
Mixing height.......200-2000 ft AGL...increasing to 2500 ft AGL at
                    ignition...otherwise 2300-2800 ft AGL early in
                    the afternoon.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 12 mph...increasing to southeast 15
                    to 23 mph late in the morning.
LVORI...............3.
Max ADI.............53.

TIME (EDT)      3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky (%).........76  74  75
Weather cov.....SCH SCH SCH
Weather type....RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........
Chc of pcpn (%).20  20  20
Temp............71  72  72
RH..............57  55  57
20 FT wind dir..SE  SE  SE
20 FT wind dir..120 120 130
20 FT wind spd..9   9   9
20 FT wind gust.15  15  15
Mix hgt (kft)...2.5 2.6 2.8
Trasnp wind dir.SE  SE  SE
Transp wind spd.21  22  23
LVORI...........1   1   1
ADI.............45  49  53
LAL.............4   4   4

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). A chance of showers in
                    the evening. A chance of thunderstorms. Showers
                    after midnight.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................16-25 strikes.
Temperature.........Min 59.
RH..................Max 93 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 8 to 9 mph. Gusty and erratic winds
                    expected near thunderstorms.
Mixing height.......700-2200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 14 to 23 mph.
LVORI...............3.
Min ADI.............12.

TIME (EDT)      6 PM   8 PM   10 PM  MIDNGT 2 AM   4 AM
Sky (%).........78     87     91     92     91     96
Weather cov.....S CHC  CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE LIKELY DEFNTE
Weather type....RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).20     30     40     50     70     80
Temp............71     68     65     63     62     60
RH..............59     65     68     75     84     93
20 ft wind......SE 9   SE 9   SE 9   SE 8   SE 8   S 8
20 ft wind gust.15     15     15     15     15     15
Mix hgt (ft)....2200   1000   1200   1100   700    700
Transport wind..SE 23  SE 22  SE 16  SE 14  S 15   S 14
LVORI...........1      2      3      4      4      5
ADI.............46     20     14     12     13     12
LAL.............4      4      4      4      4      4

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent)...then becoming partly
                    sunny (60-70 percent). Showers in the morning.
                    A chance of thunderstorms until late afternoon.
                    A chance of showers in the afternoon.
Chance of pcpn......80 percent.
LAL.................16-25 strikes until 1400...then No Tstms.
Temperature.........Max 79.
RH..................Min 36 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest winds 8 to 13 mph with gusts up to 25
                    mph. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    thunderstorms until late afternoon.
Mixing height.......700-2200 ft AGL...increasing to 2800-4700 ft
                    AGL in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....South 10 to 15 mph...increasing to southwest 29
                    to 31 mph.
LVORI...............4.
Max ADI.............87.

TIME (EDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky (%).........97        95        87        79
Weather cov.....DEFNTE    LIKELY    LIKELY    CHANCE
Weather type....RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR    RNSHWR
Tstm cov........CHANCE    CHANCE    CHANCE
Chc of pcpn (%).80        70        60        40
Temp............59        63        73        78
RH..............96        87        57        42
20 FT wind......S 8G15    S 9G15    SW 12G25  SW 13G25
Mix hgt (ft)....700       1200      2800      4100
Transport wind..S 12      S 15      SW 29     SW 31
LVORI...........6         4         1         1
ADI.............10        21        66        87
LAL.............4         4         4         1

$$
Forecaster...Morrison
Requested by...Tom Dooley
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 1705377.2/CAE



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